Panic Meter: Five teams that have fading hope and reasons to worry

September was good to UCLA, which is relevant for the first time in eons. It was good to Utah and BYU, which confirmed their status as Big 12 contenders. And to Oregon State, which posted the most impressive .500 record we have seen in many years.

For others, the first month was decidedly suboptimal. Oregon and USC absorbed losses that make their twin pursuits of College Football Playoff bids vastly more challenging. Arizona State stumbled at Texas A&M with a turnover-plagued fourth quarter. Arizona did the same at BYU, albeit without the miscues. The Wildcats simply weren’t good enough.

And for a handful of teams, September proved deeply concerning — to the extent that only the Hotline’s Panic Meter can provide appropriate context.

Here is our dive into the state of woe for five teams across the region.

For each team, the Panic Meter operates on a 1-to-5 scale.

Team: Cal
The carnage: The Bears are 2-2 under first-year coach Tosh Lupoi but would be 1-3 if not for a game gifted to them by Syracuse. Worse than their record is the offensive offense in what was supposed to constitute a breakout season for sophomore quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and the array of playmakers the Bears spent a small fortune to acquire. Sagapolutele is 90th nationally in yards-per-attempt (7.2) and has four interceptions and just seven touchdowns. Lupoi, whose playing and coaching background is on defense, took a massive risk when he named Jordan Somerville as Cal’s offensive coordinator despite his lack of experience in the role. The Bears paid for it in September. If Lupoi doesn’t correct the situation immediately, the season will be lost.
Panic Meter reading: 4.0. This is most definitely not what the donors paid for.

Team: Colorado
The carnage: The preseason attention focused on what were viewed as CU’s undersized offensive and defensive lines. But it appears the Buffaloes (2-2) simply are not very good. Again. The Week 1 victory at Georgia Tech feels like months ago after the face plant at Northwestern and the loss at Baylor. (It certainly didn’t help that CU played three power conference road games in the first month.) A quarterback change could be coming, with former Utah starter Isaac Wilson replacing Julian Lewis. Compounding the problems for coach Deion Sanders and Co.: The Big 12 schedule is brutal.
Panic Meter reading: 3.5. It’s beginning to look like 2025 all over again.

Team: San Diego State
The carnage: The Aztecs (1-3) began the season with designs on challenging Boise State for the Pac-12 championship and a possible bid to the playoff. The reality looks like a bowl-less postseason after lopsided defeats to UCLA and James Madison and a blowout loss at Toledo. (Not an easy trio of opponents, for sure.) SDSU has regressed on defense without coordinator Rob Aurich, who left for Nebraska, and possesses an inept passing game. Will third-year coach Sean Lewis stick with veteran quarterback Jayden Denegal or turn to freshman Draiden Trudeau?
Panic Meter reading: 4.5. Rock bottom is fast approaching.

Team: Washington
The carnage: Where should we begin? The Huskies (3-1) were surprisingly bad defensively against Minnesota, but their primary source of woe is an offense that doesn’t do anything well. The line is struggling; the running game is non-existent; quarterback Demond Williams Jr. doesn’t look comfortable or confident; and the receivers aren’t good enough to compensate for the problems everywhere else. That was evident in the closer-than-expected victories over Washington State and Utah State and reaffirmed by the loss to Minnesota, which hadn’t won a road game in 22 months. Without fast and dramatic improvement, the Huskies are in serious jeopardy of not qualifying for the bowl season, a state of play that we could not have envisioned a month ago.
Panic Meter reading: 4.0. When 3-1 feels, at best, like 1-3.

Team: Washington State
The carnage: The framework for a difficult September was set a few years ago, when WSU scheduled three games against Power Four opponents (Washington, Kansas State and Arizona). Sure enough, the Cougars (1-3) lost all three by double digits. New coach Kirby Moore is an experienced offensive playcaller, but the unit has underperformed thus far, and the defense lacks the talent to carry the Cougars on a prolonged basis. The first year of the new Pac-12 was supposed to offer WSU a platform to regain relevance. From what we have witnessed, the Cougars are headed for a bottom-tier finish.
Panic Meter reading: 3.5. Send NIL donations to the Cougar Football Complex, Pullman, WA 99164

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