Heisman Watch: Pac-12 QBs swap places as Penix shines, Williams struggles

Welcome to our weekly look at the Pac-12’s leading Heisman Trophy candidates via an assessment of the top players in the conference. Consider this one Heisman voter’s view of the landscape. The rankings are based on individual performance, value to the team and quality of competition. And yes, we consider defensive players.

The Heisman Trophy race shifted dramatically last week as one frontrunner thrived under pressure and the other flopped.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams threw a career-high three interceptions — that’s three more than he had thrown all season — in a blowout loss to Notre Dame.

The performance derailed his pursuit of a second consecutive Heisman. The betting odds on Williams winning the award soared from basically 2-to-1 prior to Saturday’s meltdown to 35-to-1 after the loss, according to BetMGM.

Meanwhile, Penix emerged as the clear frontrunner following the pulsating victory over Oregon. Penix was 2-to-1 to win the award last week; his odds are now approximately 2-to-3.

He’s the only candidate in negative territory, meaning the probability of Penix winning the Trophy is greater than 50 percent.

The closest pursuers are Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel and Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who are 10-to-1. Oregon’s Bo Nix, who was superb Saturday afternoon in Seattle and cannot be discounted as a serious candidate, is hovering at 30-to-1.

Support for Penix’s candidacy extends beyond the oddsmakers. A straw poll of Heisman voters conducted by The Athletic this week resulted in Penix receiving all 34 first-place votes.

November looms, and the award is his to lose.

Our ranking of Pac-12 candidates …

1. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Last week: 2
Key stats: 383.5 yards per game, 10.7 yards per attempt, 20 touchdowns
Comment: Penix not only led UW to a massive victory, he delivered the proverbial Heisman moment with the two-play, 53-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes that secured the win. And he did it all while visibly hurting. It was exactly the stuff that resonates with Heisman voters across the country.

2. Oregon QB Bo Nix
Last week: 3
Key stats: 79.2 completion percentage, 17 touchdowns, one interception
Comment: Nix couldn’t convert the key fourth-down pass in the final minutes, but his overall work in Seattle (33 of 44, 337 yards, two touchdowns) was plenty good enough to maintain a spot in the Heisman race. He isn’t on the top tier but is close enough to strike in November if Penix falters.

3. USC QB Caleb Williams
Last week: 1
Key stats: 187 passer rating, 70% completion, 23 touchdowns
Comment: One bad game doesn’t ruin a Heisman campaign, but it eliminates Williams’ margin for error. A second substandard showing, regardless of the opponent, and he’s probably done. But therein lies the hurdle: Williams is held to a standard somewhere in the stratosphere.

4. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
Last week: 4
Key stats: 345.7 yards per game, 72.3% completion, 21 touchdowns
Comment: Sanders continues to produce impressive numbers, but the most important of all is working against him: three losses (and counting) for the Buffaloes. The interception in overtime against Stanford didn’t help his case, either.

5. Washington WR Rome Odunze
Last week: 6
Key stats: 40 receptions, 18.7 yards per catch, six touchdowns
Comment: Odunze was at the top of his game last weekend with eight receptions against Oregon and two second-half touchdowns, including the game-winner with 1:38 remaining. He won’t make it to New York City for the Heisman ceremony, but Odunze is a clear frontrunner for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation’s top receiver.

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6. Utah DE Jonah Elliss
Last week: 7
Key stats: 13 tackles-for-loss, nine sacks, one fumble forced
Comment: Elliss continued to dominate Pac-12 offensive lines with 2.5 tackles-for-loss and fumble forced in the victory over Cal. The junior has our vote as the top defensive player in the conference for the first half of the season.

7. Washington State QB Cam Ward
Last week: 5
Key stats: 295 yards per game, 69.7% completion
Comment: We considered leaving Ward off the Heisman Watch entirely after his second consecutive subpar performance (and WSU’s second consecutive loss). If the Cougars don’t adjust to the tactics used by opposing defenses, their season could implode.

8. Arizona WR Jacob Cowing
Last week: 8
Key stats: 54 receptions, eight touchdowns
Comment: Cowing had eight catches in the blowout victory at Washington State although his yardage was limited (29). The rise of teammate Tetairoa McMillan as a favored target of quarterback Noah Fifita serves to undercut Cowing’s production. But his impact across the season to date remains first-rate.

Also considered (alphabetically): Oregon DL Brandon Dorlus, Arizona State WR Elijhah Badger, Arizona QB Noah Fifita, Oregon WR Troy Franklin, Oregon State OL Joshua Gray, Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter, UCLA Edge Laiatu Latu, Arizona LB Jacob Manu, Oregon State TB Damien Martinez, Cal TB Jaydn Ott, Washington State Edge Ron Stone Jr.

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