Pac-12 picks: Washington’s history of desert doom in spotlight as Huskies visit Tucson

It’s hardly uncommon for Pac-12 teams to struggle in specific venues, or against certain opponents. Oregon, for instance, has experienced remarkable difficulty against Stanford over the years. Washington State has dominated its series with Oregon State of late.

In Washington’s case, there’s an unexpected antagonist. It’s not a team or a stadium. It’s a state. UW has a longstanding aversion to playing in Arizona.

And guess where the seventh-ranked Huskies are headed this week?

In advance of UW’s tangle with unranked Arizona, the Hotline examined two decades of points spreads and results of games in Tucson and Tempe.

The picture is uglier than we imagined.

The Huskies have played 17 games in the desert in the past 20 years and are 4-13 against the spread.

In the Pac-12’s expansion era, which began in 2011, they are just 2-7 against the betting line when visiting Arizona and Arizona State.

Perhaps it’s the heat. Or the travel. Or a lack of motivation. It could be a combination of factors. Maybe there is no logical explanation whatsoever.

But filter for instances in which the Huskies have been the betting favorite at Arizona or ASU, and the numbers are downright gruesome: They have covered just once in six games (as a six-point favorite in Tucson in 2019).

Last year, they stumbled in Tempe in early October as double-digit favorites, and the defeat ultimately kept them out of the Pac-12 championship game.

They haven’t lost since and are favored by 17 points this week.

Give the points at your own risk.

Last week: 3-3
Season: 16-15
Five-star special: 3-1

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from BetMGM (via VegasInsider.com)

(All times Pacific)

Utah at Oregon State (Friday)
Kickoff: 6 p.m. on FS1
Line: Oregon State -3.5 (total: 44.5)
Comment: The first of four Friday night conference games is a weighty affair as the hosts attempt to rebound from a loss (at WSU) and the visitors aim to remain undefeated. The status of Utah quarterback Cameron Rising is unknown — he hasn’t played all season and will be rusty whenever he returns. But the Utes are struggling without him and have relied on their defense for salvation. The Beavers rushed for 260 yards in an eight-point head-to-head win two years ago in Reser Stadium. Their approach Friday will be similar, but can they repeat the success against the best defense in the conference? We aren’t convinced.
Pick: Utah

USC at Colorado
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on FOX
Line: USC -21.5 (total: 73.5)
Comment: Credit USC for agreeing to have breakfast in Boulder and turning this hotly anticipated duel into another ‘Big Noon’ appearance for Colorado. Notably, the point spread is identical to the betting line last week for CU’s matchup against Oregon. That 21-point line came with the Buffaloes on the road against a better team than they will encounter this weekend. We expect Caleb Williams and the Trojans to score early and often, but the same goes for Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs. Don’t be surprised if there’s high drama in the thin air.
Pick: Colorado

Arizona State at Cal
Kickoff: 12 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Cal -11.5 (total: 47.5)
Comment: The third matchup of the weekend lacks the stakes or the hype of the Friday night and Saturday morning affairs, but it’s a critical game for the Bears (2-2) in their quest for a bowl berth. We can’t help but wonder about the Sun Devils’ physical and emotional condition after the taxing duel with USC last weekend. Both teams are unsettled at quarterback: ASU is without injured starter Jaden Rashada while Cal lacks a high-level option on its roster. We view the line as a tad too high, even though the Bears are in desperation mode.
Pick: Arizona State

Oregon at Stanford
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Oregon -27.5 (total: 61.5)
Comment: Fresh off the blowout victory over Colorado, the Ducks must muster some degree of urgency to handle their next test. Yes, they have struggled against subpar Stanford teams in the past and lost in overtime two years ago when they were ranked third in the nation. But that Cardinal team had more talent than this version and better quarterback play. Unless Oregon commits a rash of turnovers, the game should be in hand with five minutes remaining. But the line is too high for our liking and provides a back door for the underdog once all the starters for both teams have been removed.
Pick: Stanford

Washington at Arizona
Kickoff: 7 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Washington -17.5 (total: 67.5)
Comment: This week’s only night game has the potential to be a riveting affair if the Wildcats execute with maximum efficiency and the Huskies finally play like mortals after so many displays of dominance. Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura injured his ankle in the narrow escape at Stanford. If he can’t play, rookie Noah Fifita must handle Washington’s dangerous edge rushers. That seems like a recipe for a rout, but we expect a plot twist or two given the aforementioned history of this series.
Pick: Arizona

Straight-up winners: Utah, USC, Cal, Oregon and Washington

Five-star special: Utah. There aren’t many chances to take the two-time defending Pac-12 champions as an underdog. We’ll happily accept the Utes and the points.