Blogs Featured Preps Zone Read

Zone Read: Open Division – Ask the Experts

Arizona Sports News online

It’s here.

The Open Division playoffs kick off this weekend in the most unique-looking field since the concept’s inception in 2019. Out are some household names. In are a few programs stepping up in post-season competition, hoping to put an exclamation point on an already successful season by many accounts.

For this week’s “Zone Read,” I turned to our talented group of AZHS football hosts/reporters/insiders here at Sports360AZ to get their thoughts on what storylines they’ll be following the next few weeks in Arizona’s version of the Elite Eight.

Below are their thoughts (listed by name, alphabetically).

Ralph Amsden: “One of the storylines I’m most interested in following during the 2024 Open is the strange phenomenon of all four 5A participants being matched up with 6A participants. As members of the media (who very likely did not go to school for advanced degrees in mathematics), we’re never going to know what change was made that emphasized 5A competition. But it doesn’t take a mathematician to understand patterns- and you can’t deny the typical pattern isn’t to have 2-3 loss 5A teams ahead of 1-2 loss 6A teams.

“So now we’re in a situation, through random chance, that none of the 5A teams are matched against each other. That means that one of two things is going to happen, 1) The AIA formula is going to be proven correct by one or more 5A teams winning their matchups, or 2) The AIA formula is going to be exposed as extremely flawed via a 6A clean sweep. At the very least, to legitimize this year’s data, the 1-seed should defeat the 8-seed, as it has the previous 5 years (by an average of 32). So what about it, Marana?”

Cody Cameron: “I want to see if we finally get the Basha vs Liberty State Championship game that we’ve all been waiting for. The bracket is aligned perfectly for it and I believe those are the true two best teams in the state.

“Be on the lookout for ALA Queen Creek to play spoiler for that prediction, though. The Patriots have competed in the Open Division playoffs four years in a row now, and this is the best team they’ve had in that stretch.”

Claudia Collins: “Give me the underdogs! I’m excited to continue to follow Travis Dixon’s success as a first-year head coach at Hamilton High School. This “homecoming” for the Huskies has paid off big time. Maybe it’s the emotional appeal getting the best of me, but I believe Dixon wrangling a staff that truly cares about Hamilton football has been the difference-maker.

“Despite going in as the 8-seed, I feel they stand a really solid chance to upset Marana. This 2024 season might be the beginning of a new era for Hamilton.”

Chris Eaton: “I find it interesting that we have four 6A teams playing four 5A teams. This could be the last stand for The Open as we currently know it. The 4A Conference is now out of it and the 5A could be close behind, particularly if we have some lopsided scores this week. Liberty has won seven of its games by three touchdowns or more, and plays a 3-loss Higley squad. ALA-Queen Creek has yet to allow 20 points in a game (avg. 8.9 ppg). The Patriots face Desert Mountain, which struggled to score against Horizon and Higley.

“Basha has scored more than 30 against every Arizona team. Can a Horizon offense that just scored seven against ALA Gilbert North keep up with the Bears?

“And that leaves Marana versus Hamilton. The Tigers have the best 5A chance at a win, but I don’t like having 21 days in between games (MHS had its bye in Week 11). And Hamilton looked like it was on all cylinders against Chandler.”

Eliav Gabay: [BEYOND THE GAME] – “Third-seeded ALA Queen Creek has a powerful run game led by senior running back Brandon Brown (90+ rush yards per game, 15 total touchdowns), as well as a suffocating defense that’s produced 33 sacks and held opponents to an eye-popping EIGHT points per contest. This group’s motivation, however, is even bigger than the game itself this year.

“Just a few weeks ago, offensive lineman Jack Kimball lost his father and brother in a tragic plane accident in Mesa. The team honored them ahead of its game with Queen Creek. A matchup they won 42-7.

“Sometimes, it just means more – and this postseason – it absolutely does as the Patriots honor their brother on the field and in their hearts.”
 
Devon Henry: “On the pathway to the Open Division Playoffs, I truly believed that the Open was “open.” There appeared to be no standout favorite, no clear victor in any first-round game. Just a wealth of talent where ranking almost doesn’t matter – any seed can win any game. I still feel like there’s no clear favorite but after the last ranking to set the Open Division, it doesn’t feel like there are eight teams who realistically have a chance to run the table. All respect to the 5A teams who made the Open, but these programs certainly don’t feel like we’re comparing apples to apples.

“I would like to see the winner of this Open Division be the final winner of the Open Division, for now. The AIA’s current conference realignment based on previous success, contradicts the entire reason for the Open Division. And quite frankly, it feels like the Open Division may have hindered more programs than it has benefited. Obviously, Liberty, Saguaro, Basha, and Chandler have been able to prove their dominance and legacies as undisputed champions.

“But how were programs like Horizon, Desert Edge, Corona del Sol, Cactus, Queen Creek, Sandra Day O’Connor, and Desert Mountain awarded by having historical, and sometimes, unprecedented seasons? Instead of a likely chance of making their conference state championship game at ASU, they were granted first-round blowouts in the Open Division (all of which by 20+ points, three of those teams by 40+). Nothing is fair in life. But has the Open Division done more good for athletes than potentially blemishing smaller programs and their athletes who had an opportunity to raise a gold ball against schools more similar to themselves? I don’t know about you but I’d rather lose by 20 in a conference state championship game than by 40 in the first round of the Open. But that’s just me. Either let the best of the best play in 6A (or 7A) or align the conferences in a way that makes an Open Division necessary. On the other side of the fence though, has ALA – Queen Creek and Pinnacle elevated their program through Open Division losses? Arguably, yes.

“While I don’t see a favorite, I’ve considered Liberty as the leader of the pack throughout the season until someone can actually upend them. The Lions haven’t lost against an Arizona opponent in 719 days, since their 2022 Open Division Semi loss to Saguaro 43-42. Liberty has made a conference semifinal or conference championship game every season since 2019 and I don’t expect that streak to end this year. Nonetheless, every team in the open should keep a lookout over their shoulder, because regardless of what anyone thinks about the 5A teams in the bracket, everyone is talented enough to get an edge on anyone else.”

Jordan Spurgeon: “Will ALA – Queen Creek make the jump from just being in the Open Division, to going on a deep run? I think the answer to that is yes.  Rich Edwards has done a phenomenal job in year one at the helm. This is the most physical team upfront on both sides of the ball in the state.

“Defensively they are a nightmare for any opponent, forcing 20 turnovers (12 interceptions, eight fumbles) with 33 team sacks as well. No shade to Desert Mountain, but the Patriots should win big this Friday. If the semi finals matchup is a contest with Basha, that game could very well be considered the Open Division championship.”

 

Related posts:

Arizona Sports News online

Zone Read: The Heat is On Arizona Sports News online

Zone Read: Seasoning Salts Arizona Sports News online

Zone Read: Rivalry Week Arizona Sports News online

Zone Read: Time to Tee it Up