Wilner Hotline – Pac-12 2022 Preview, Winners and Losers in the Transfer Portal

Dozens of players have passed through the transfer portal on their way into, and out of, Pac-12 football programs since the fall.

To be more precise: 18 dozen.

The 247Sports database shows 214 players have entered or departed the conference. The figure includes intra-league moves, but every talent gained is a talent lost.

We cannot make full sense of the situation. After all, the portal never closes, and there are bound to be dozens more comings and goings before the 2022 rosters are set.

But we felt compelled to examine the situation to this point, with another assessment planned for the late spring.

Links to previous installments in our series previewing Pac-12 football in 2022 are available at the bottom.

WINNERS

Arizona
Biggest arrival: quarterback Jayden de Laura (from Washington State)
Biggest departure: receiver Jalen Curry (to Buffalo)
Comment: It’s not difficult to find players leaving the Arizona program — there are 18 listed in the 247 database. But it’s tough to find impact players leaving Tucson. (Then again, 1-11 teams don’t typically have many impact players.) Naturally, de Laura has the potential to be the most significant intra-conference move of the winter if he stabilizes the position and leads Arizona to respectability.He’ll have help in the form of receiver Jacob Cowing, who caught 69 passes for UTEP last season, and Jack Buford, a potential starting tackle from New Mexico.

Arizona State
Biggest arrival: defensive lineman Nesta Jade Silvera (from Miami)
Biggest departure: cornerback Tommi Hill (to Nebraska)
Comment: The NCAA investigation took a pound of flesh from ASU’s high school recruiting efforts, but coach Herm Edwards has made shrewd use of the transfer portal — it’s exactly the roster lifeline the program needs at this moment. The list of departures features a load of former four-star recruits who made minimal impact on the field. Meanwhile, Silvera is a proven commodity, a former all-ACC honorable mention pick, and plays a high-value position. We suspect there will be more turnover, in both directions, for the Sun Devils throughout the winter and spring.

Cal
Biggest arrival: quarterback Jack Plummer (from Purdue)
Biggest departure: receiver Nikko Remigio (to Fresno State)
Comment: The Bears also lost top rusher Christopher Brown, but Remigio’s role as a threat in the passing and return games make his departure more significant for a program that has experienced big-play issues in recent years. We expect linebackers Xavier Carlton (from Utah) and Jackson Sirmon (Washington) to bolster the defense, but Plummer stands as the transfer most likely to affect Cal’s trajectory. There’s a void at quarterback without Chase Garbers and a slew of unknowns with the internal replacements.

Oregon
Biggest arrival: cornerback Christian Gonzalez (from Colorado)
Biggest departure: tailback Travis Dye (to USC)
Comment: We considered naming quarterback Bo Nix (from Auburn) as the Ducks’ top newcomer, and he might prove us wrong. But the Hotline isn’t convinced Nix is the answer based on his inconsistent play at Auburn — he’s a perfect #Pac12AfterDark quarterback, and not necessarily in a good way — and the presence of five-star underclassman Ty Thompson. So we opted for Gonzalez, who was an all-conference performer in Boulder last season and will provide immediate help to a secondary hit hard by attrition.

USC
Biggest arrival: quarterback Caleb Williams (from Oklahoma)
Biggest departure: kicker Parker Lewis (to: TBD)
Comment: No program in college football has made better use of the portal as coach Lincoln Riley has rebuilt his skill positions with Williams, tailbacks Travis Dye (Oregon) and Austin Jones (Stanford), plus receivers Mario Williams (Oklahoma), Terrell Bynum (Washington) and Brenden Rice (Colorado). That said, the defense needs help, particularly the front seven. Why list a kicker as the biggest loss? Because the departures elsewhere haven’t been severe, and because Lewis has an all-conference leg.

Utah
Biggest arrival: linebacker Mohamoud Diabate (from Florida)
Biggest departure: defensive end Xavier Carlton (to Cal)
Comment: The Utes have experienced a quiet portal process compared to many other teams, with no key players leaving and a limited number of impact newcomers. (In other words: The Utes win by not losing on a net basis.) Diabate, a former four-star recruit, should help replace Devin Lloyd in the middle of the defense, although that task is far bigger than one player. Utah’s roster is well-stocked, to the point that Kyle Whittingham can be highly selective with his scholarships over the next few months.

Washington State
Biggest arrival: quarterback Cameron Ward (from Incarnate Word)
Biggest departure: quarterback Jayden de Laura (to Arizona)
Comment: The QB swap was, by far, the dominant portal development in Pullman. We consider it a net positive for the Cougars even though de Laura was instrumental in WSU’s success. The degree to which his skill set fits within the new playbook was a significant unknown. Meanwhile, Ward thrived with the Incarnate Word scheme under coach Eric Morris, who’s bringing it to the Palouse as the Cougars’ new playcaller. Our sense is the Ward-for-de Laura exchange will elevate the maturity level within the locker room, as well.

LOSERS

Colorado
Biggest arrival: receiver R.J. Snead (from Baylor)
Biggest departure: cornerback Christian Gonzalez (to Oregon)
Comment: While the departure of Brenden Rice (to USC) drew the headlines, CU has a capable replacement arriving in Snead, who caught 133 passes in his Baylor career. We should note the loss of tailback Jarek Broussard, as well. But Gonzalez will be the most difficult to replace with the limited returning talent and lack of newcomers with equivalent credentials. All in all, the Buffaloes have been hit hard by the portal — arguably harder than any team in the conference. The climb to securing a net-positive offseason will be steep.

Oregon State
Biggest arrival: none
Biggest departure: receiver Champ Flemings (to: TBD)
Comment: Perhaps the most surprising development in the conference can be found in Corvallis, where the program that has made phenomenal use of the portal in previous years is virtually silent, with no incoming transfers listed in the 247Sports database. Why? OSU is currently over its scholarship limit. While that situation could change in the spring, coach Jonathan Smith can be extremely judicious. Our guess is that the Beavers’ net has been cast a bit wider for defensive personnel.

Stanford
Biggest arrival: safety Patrick Fields (from Oklahoma)
Biggest departure: tailback Nathaniel Peat (to Missouri)
Comment: We selected Peat as the most significant departure instead of leading rusher Austin Jones, who’s headed to USC, because of his big-play speed and success as a kick returner. The surprise in the 2021-22 transfer cycle is that Stanford landed one. (Fields should find a spot within a back line that needs all the help it can get.) The academic component typically makes it much easier for the Cardinal to lose players than acquire them. That said, the departure of two tailbacks speaks to the woeful state of the running game.

UCLA
Biggest arrival: defensive tackle Gary Smith (from Duke)
Biggest departure: cornerback Jay Shaw (to Wisconsin)
Comment: The 320-pound Smith should help the interior of the defensive line. But combine the losses of Shaw and receiver Chase Cota, and the Bruins are running a slight net-negative at this point. However, we’ll place two caveats on the situation: The lure of UCLA’s graduate programs could lead to several late-spring developments of a positive nature; also, newcomer Laiatu Latu, an edge rusher whose career started at Washington, has the potential to make a first-rate impact.

Washington
Biggest arrival: quarterback Michael Penix (from Indiana)
Biggest departure: receiver Terrell Bynum (to USC)
Comment: Bynum is one of two Pac-12 all-conference honorees to leave Seattle, along with linebacker Jackson Sirmon. (Both were honorable-mention picks.) We view Bynum as the bigger blow at this point because of the lack of proven receivers on the roster and the desperate need to improve the aerial game. Penix might provide the answer — he has a history of success with coach Kalen DeBoer (at Indiana). Because of the new staff, the Huskies are sure to experience more turnover. For now, we see a net loss.

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