Wilner Hotline mailbag: Renewing with ESPN and Fox(?), the Four Corners factor, selection windows and more

The Hotline mailbag is published every week. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline.

Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

What are the chances of the Pac-12 simply re-upping its media rights contracts with ESPN and Fox? — @nikgazcs2

The Pac-12 could end up partnering with ESPN and Fox — more on that momentarily — but it probably would not be a simple renewal of the existing agreement. It would be a new deal with a new component: The game inventory that has, to this point, been located on the Pac-12 Networks.

The contract signed in 2011 gave ESPN and Fox the right to share 44 regular-season football games, plus the conference championship. The Pac-12 Networks broadcast another 35 (approximately).

Those 35 likely will be included in whatever deal the conference signs this spring with its new broadcast partners. The Pac-12 Networks are going away, at least as a self-sustained media production and distribution company.

Our view, which hasn’t changed over the course of six or seven months, is that ESPN will receive a substantial portion of the Pac-12’s football inventory starting in 2024 while Fox could purchase a small package. It already has the L.A. schools (as part of its Big Ten agreement) and doesn’t need more than one Pac-12 game per week, if that.

That’s one of several factors that distinguish the Pac-12 and Big 12 situations.

Fox needed to renew with the Big 12 because it lost Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC (and ESPN).

Fox doesn’t need to renew with the Pac-12 because it gained USC and UCLA (via its Big Ten agreement).

That said, the loss of USC and UCLA to Fox probably serves as a motivating factor for ESPN.

If it doesn’t partner with the Pac-12, the network would be shut out of the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver and Portland media markets, plus the metropolises in the Big Ten.

If the media rights do not come out as expected, what backlash will the schools feel from their largest boosters? Or, will the schools lean more on these boosters to supplement the income? — @draywilson29

I’m not sure the big boosters will care as much about the valuation as the visibility. Diehard fans want to see the games, and they want to know the kickoff times in advance.

Few things have frustrated Pac-12 fans more than the quartet of six-day selection weeks — ESPN and Fox have two each — that make it so difficult to plan football-related travel and events.

The media rights money is crucial, but so, too, is the game day environment on campus. The latter is deeply connected to the selection process and announcement of kickoff times.

As for leaning into boosters to offset a bad media deal, well, the schools are already leaning into boosters to help with facility projects, coaching salaries and buyouts, NIL and so much more.

Do you expect the exit fee in the new grant-of-rights (GOR) to be similar to those in place for ACC and Big 12? Oregon and Washington may be hesitant to sign one that has steep penalties. — @Pac12FanFeed

I have mentioned this before when fans wondered about the fragility of a six- or seven-year GOR for the Pac-12, and it’s worth repeating: Nobody will ever again lock in their media rights for 10 or 12 years (or more).

The ACC’s 20-year deal, which expires in 2036, is a dinosaur in that regard. There’s too much money at the media rights buffet for conferences to pass on chances to feed as frequently as possible.

That’s why the Big Ten signed a seven-year deal with NBC, CBS and Fox.

That’s why the Big 12 agreed to a six-year renewal of its deals with ESPN and Fox.

And that’s why the Pac-12 is seeking a contract that lasts anywhere from five to seven years.

Should we expect a Pac-12 media deal to be announced soon? Many, including the Hotline, reported that March was the targeted time frame. — @aka_branderson

Yes, the Hotline reported March or early April as the likely window for resolution, largely because that’s what the university presidents were saying publicly and conference sources were discussing privately.

So why the delay? We see three possibilities:

1. The conference was unable to land the deal it expected and had to start the process all over again.

2. The negotiations progressed significantly, but the final steps are proving elusive.

3. The framework of a deal is set, but at least one media partner needed time for other reasons. (WSU president Kirk Schulz alluded to this possibility in remarks last week.)

Our best guess: No. 2.

If only Colorado and Arizona leave to the Big 12 — and both are on the low end of the TV ratings — would the Pac-12 still secure a tenable TV deal? Would it actually help their per-school payouts to be an eight-member conference? — @Charlz_DeMar

Theoretically, yes. There’s probably a deal available for an eight-team conference given the West Coast media markets involved. And the College Football Playoff selection process would recognize the champion. (In that regard, the fewer teams the better for Washington, Oregon and Utah.)

But from a practical sense, there are two issues:

— Game inventory. With eight teams, the remaining schools would need to play five non-conference games at a time when supply is dwindling, not increasing. (Inventory is a key reason for the conference to expand to 12 schools in our opinion.)

— Membership insecurity. Without eliminating any possibility, we don’t currently envision a scenario in which half the Four Corners schools leave for the Big 12 and the other half stay in the Pac-12.

Could Utah State and Colorado State be on commissioner George Kliavkoff’s list if schools in those states jump to the Big 12? — @mlondo856

I suspect (but haven’t confirmed) that the Pac-12 has conducted exploratory work on Colorado State, which clears the bar academically as an R1 research school.

Utah State doesn’t work for the Pac-12 in any fashion.

As noted above, the Hotline leans to the all-or-none view of the Four Corners schools bolting for the Big 12 — a seismic shift triggered only if Kliavkoff fails to present the presidents with an acceptable media deal.

And we view that as the less likely of two outcomes.

I was reading about Fresno State’s renovation of its stadium. Do you think it has anything to do with a possible Big 12 invitation? — @DavidJBrown19

I think it has everything to do with positioning Fresno State as an attractive candidate for the Power Five, either in the next few years or the next decade.

OK, maybe not everything. The Bulldogs have been talking about facility upgrades for years. But certainly, the current momentum is tied to realignment.

In that regard, Fresno State is no different than the course taken by Utah two decades ago, when the university implemented a years-long plan to be ready if the Pac-10 ever came calling.

The Pac-12 athletic departments should not bear the brunt of the Comcast fiasco. But if the conference does not take action by counter-claiming against the two terminated executives and cross-claiming against Larry Scott, it will be a huge mistake bordering on gross negligence. — Jon Joseph

It’s a resource and reward calculation.

Based on the facts uncovered during the Pac-12’s investigation — and whatever evidence could surface during the discovery phase of litigation brought by Mark Shuken and Brent Willman — the conference must decide if it’s worthwhile to pursue legal action.

The target of that action would almost certainly be Scott, the former commissioner and chief executive of the Pac-12 Networks.

What did he know? When did he know it? How did he respond? And what risk would accompany any action against him?

It’s simply too early in the process to have clarity.

What’s the NFL Draft ceiling for Washington State quarterback Cam Ward? — @fin_kell

Lower than it was a year ago, for sure.

Ward’s performance in 2022 was uneven. Clearly, he has high-round talent, but the transition to major college football (from Incarnate Word) exposed flaws in his game.

WSU’s mediocre offensive line played a role in Ward’s performance, as well. But his decision-making and consistency in the pocket were clearly lacking.

At this point, we believe Ward’s most likely landing spot is the middle rounds, as high as the third and as low as the sixth. But that assumes improved efficiency.

If the trajectory flatlines, he might seek NFL employment as an undrafted free agent.

Who decides which Hotline articles are published in your partnership papers? — @ASG52

Our syndication partners have access to every article published and full control over which ones they use. There are no requirements on their end. The decisions are based on circumstances particular to each outlet.

If you have questions or general comments about their use of Hotline content, my suggestion is to reach out to them directly. And be sure to thank them. We treasure the relationships.

What’s your go-to home-cooked meal? — @mjhusky

Chicken parmesan with tomato sauce that has been simmering for hours. It’s a Christmas Eve tradition for our family.

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