Wilner Hotline – Best of the West Rankings USC on top as Oregon and BYU rise, Cougs drop and Air Force returns

Each week, the Hotline ranks the best major college football teams across the western third of the country — not only the Pac-12 but the Mountain West and Independents — using a formula that’s partly results-oriented and partly subjective.

We will publish a similar ranking once the basketball season begins, incorporating the top teams from the West Coast Conference, Big West, Big Sky and Western Athletic, as well.

Here’s our assessment through the results of Week Four …

(All times Pacific)

1. USC (4-0/2-0 Pac-12)
Last week: 1
Result: won at Oregon State 17-14
Next up: vs. Arizona State (7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Line: USC -26.5
Comment: The Trojans have a 34 percent chance of winning the Pac-12 and a 21 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, according to the website fivethirtyeight.com. That delta seems about right.

2. Utah (3-1/1-0 Pac-12)
Last week: 3
Result: won at Arizona State 34-13
Next up: vs. Oregon State (11 a.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Line: Utah -10.5
Comment: The Utes haven’t lost to a conference opponent in 340 days, since they had no answers for the Beavers’ running game.

3. Oregon (3-1/ 1-0 Pac-12)
Last week: 5
Result: won at Washington State 44-41
Next up: vs. Stanford (8 p.m. on FS1)
Line: Oregon -17
Comment: The Ducks have been quite good on third down — at least on offense (conversion rate: 48 percent). Their defense has struggled getting off the field, however (opponent conversion rate: 54 percent).

4. Brigham Young (3-1)
Last week: 6
Result: beat Wyoming 38-24
Next up: vs. Utah State (Thursday, 5 p.m on ESPN)
Line: BYU -24.5
Comment: Slow start against Wyoming was entirely predictable given the magnitude and physicality of the previous two games (Baylor and Oregon).

5. Washington (4-0/1-0 Pac-12)
Last week: 4
Result: beat Stanford 40-22
Next up: at UCLA (Friday, 7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Line: Washington -2.5
Comment: The line movement for Friday night has been interesting to watch, with the Huskies favored by 3.5 at one point earlier in the week. Our guess: It bounces back to -3 just before kickoff.

6. Washington State (3-1/0-1 Pac-12)
Last week: 2
Result: lost to Oregon 44-41
Next up: vs. Cal (2:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Line: WSU -4
Comment: Yes, this is a steep drop down the BOTW rankings. Then again, that was a major collapse.

7. Oregon State (3-1/0-1 Pac-12)
Last week: 7
Result: lost to USC 17-14
Next up: at Utah (11 a.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Line: Oregon State +10.5
Comment: The Beavers are halfway to bowl eligibility and have Stanford, Colorado and Arizona State left on the schedule. In other words: No reason to fret.

8. Fresno State (1-2)
Last week: 8
Result: idle
Next up: at Connecticut (12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Line: Fresno State -23.5
Comment: UConn’s only victory is over Central Connecticut, an FCS team. The Bulldogs should be insulted by that point spread, even with the cross-country travel and the injury to Jake Haener.

9. UCLA (4-0/1-0 Pac-12)
Last week: 9
Result: won at Colorado 45-17
Next up: vs. Washington (Friday, 7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Line: UCLA +2.5
Comment: UCLA’s strength-of-schedule is No. 162 nationally in the Sagarin Ratings. Of note: There are only 131 FBS teams.

10. Air Force (3-1/1-1 Mountain West)
Last week: NR
Result: beat Nevada 48-20
Next up: vs. Navy (9 a.m. on CBS)
Line: Air Force -14
Comment: We considered Wyoming for this spot given its head-to-head win over the Falcons. But it was a narrow victory, in Laramie, and we like the rest of Air Force’s resume a bit better.

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