What the AP preseason poll says about college football’s (im)balance of power in 2024

The Big Ten and SEC were the not-so-subtle forces behind every important development in college football’s raucous offseason.

On Monday, the behemoths solidified their influence over the preseason, as well, claiming 15 spots in the Associated Press top-25 poll, including the top-six positions.

While entirely predictable, the dominance of two conferences (at the expense of seven others) raised an intriguing question as the sport enters a new era driven by realignment: To what extent will the AP preseason poll foreshadow the College Football Playoff’s postseason rankings?

With Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi and Missouri representing the SEC and Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Michigan from the Big Ten, the heavyweights occupied nine of the top-11 spots in the AP preseason poll.

Why should that breakdown resonate from coast to coast?

Because 11 spots in the expanded playoff are reserved for the power conferences, with four berths set aside for the respective champions and seven for at-large teams. (The 12th and final playoff spot goes to the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five.)

Or consider the situation this way: The ACC placed just one team in the top 11, Florida State, while the Big 12 had none (although No. 12 Utah was close).

The ACC and Big 12 aren’t in danger of playoff shutouts: Their champions will receive automatic bids and opening-round byes, regardless of record or ranking. But beyond that one guaranteed bid, the situation for each is precarious.

The Big Ten and SEC could very well claim seven or eight bids. If Notre Dame also qualifies, there won’t be much room for at-large teams from the ACC and Big 12.

The AP preseason poll is, of course, guesswork. And there is no correlation between the processes that determine the poll and the playoff selection committee’s rankings.

But if the latter ends up resembling the former, then bids to the expanded playoff will tilt heavily in favor of two conferences.

Other notes on the AP preseason rankings:

— The SEC led all conferences with nine teams in the poll, followed by the Big Ten (six), Big 12 (five) and ACC (four).

Notre Dame was also ranked (No. 7), meaning no teams from the Group of Five cracked the poll.

— Third-ranked Oregon received its highest preseason placement since the 2014 season, when the Ducks also were No. 3 (and reached the national championship game).

They have appeared in the AP preseason poll 15 of the past 16 years.

— Utah made its sixth consecutive appearance in the preseason poll. The Utes have reached the top-10 once, in 2022, when they were No. 7.

— Fresh off a victory in the Alamo Bowl, Arizona was ranked No. 21 — its first appearance in the preseason poll since 2015 (and second appearance this century).

— USC made the preseason cut for the fifth consecutive year, albeit with little room to spare (No. 23).

Only Ohio State and Oklahoma have more total appearances in the preseason poll than the Trojans (63).

— Washington became the first team to reach the College Football Playoff and not be ranked in the preseason poll the following year. The Huskies are replacing 21 of 22 starters, including quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

*** Note: My AP preseason ballot can be found here.

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