Week 3 picks vs. spread: LSU covers, BYU struggles and Arizona State manages the travel to thump Kansas in London

Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. The betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. Games involving FCS teams are not included. Of note: I went 5-7 last week and am 9-15 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.

The official website for the Union Jack Classic explains that “two powerhouse teams from the Big 12 with rich traditions will face off in London for the first time ever.”

Aside from the fact that Kansas will never be confused for a powerhouse football team with rich tradition, the description holds: The Kansas-Arizona State matchup Saturday morning is, in fact, the first major college game in London.

But it’s not the first game played overseas, and recent matchups not far from London offer important context.

In the past 15 years, there have been eight college games in Ireland in what is now called the Air Lingus Classic: Three were in the 2010s and one in each of the past five seasons.

Two of the eight featured Notre Dame and Navy and were blowouts in favor of the Fighting Irish.

The other six matched power conference teams against each other and were close, with margins between two and five points. (The set of results includes North Carolina’s 15-10 victory over TCU a few weeks ago.)

Arizona State is favored by 5.5 points over Kansas. To take the Sun Devils is to believe a clear trend will be snapped.

That is exactly what we believe.

The six down-to-the-wire games in Dublin were season openers, sloppy and disjointed. The Jayhawks and Sun Devils have played two games and faced stout competition last weekend: KU was outplayed by No. 20 Missouri, while the Sun Devils fell apart in the fourth quarter in a blowout loss at ninth-ranked Texas A&M.

The Hotline watched both games with this Week 3 matchup in mind and concluded the teams aren’t comparable. Arizona State is better in every facet, save one: quarterback ball security.

Cutter Boley, the transfer from Kentucky, threw two interceptions in College Station. Both were in the fourth quarter and resulted in Pick Sixes for Texas A&M.

His counterpart, KU’s Isaiah Marshall, a first-year starter, also threw two interceptions last weekend.

Beyond that, the Sun Devils have the advantage. They are better at the skill positions and on the lines of scrimmage.

Also, they have been in London since Sunday, having flown straight from Texas. The Jayhawks, who played Missouri on Friday evening, traveled mid-week and landed Wednesday morning.

Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham considered the disparity in the Week 2 schedule an advantage for the Jayhawks.

“You don’t expect the scheduling to be different when you schedule a game like this,” he told reporters in London.

The difference forced the Sun Devils to travel well in advance, he explained: “Us playing that game Saturday, it was either fly out immediately or lose a practice by flying out in the middle of the week. I don’t think you can afford to lose a practice when you’re playing a good opponent.”

The Hotline views Arizona’s State’s itinerary as an advantage, giving the players more time to adjust to the time change and environment. (We watched the Rams-49ers game.)

It’s one more reason to believe the Sun Devils will end the sport’s trend of close overseas games and handle Kansas without much trouble.

To the Week 3 picks …

(All times Pacific)

Arizona State (-5.5) vs. Kansas (in London)
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on FS1
Comment: The Sun Devils out-gained Texas A&M by 114 yards while Missouri dominated Kansas at the line of scrimmage. The edge up front will make all the difference for Kenny Dillingham and Co. on Saturday. Pick: Arizona State

USC (-24) at Rutgers
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: Even if the Trojans play at 75 percent capacity, they are five times better than the Scarlet Knights. But we are leery of Rutgers producing a back-door cover if USC is comfortably ahead in the second half and turns its attention to the Oregon showdown next week. Pick: Rutgers

Florida State (+19.5) at Alabama
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The Crimson Tide has a stout defense and improved running game. The Seminoles could be the first school to fire their coach. Pick: Alabama

Utah State (+27.5) at Utah
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: This is a name-your-score game. But with Utes playcaller Kevin McGiven facing his former team, he might ease off the gas to avoid fully embarrassing the Aggies. Pick: Utah State

Stanford (+9.5) at Duke
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The Cardinal is coming off a bye — after the Miami wipeout, they needed it — while Duke won at Illinois last week. It is hard to envision Stanford being competitive on the road against teams with a pulse, and the Blue Devils definitely have that. Pick: Duke

New Mexico (+22.5) at Oklahoma
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: This should be much closer than the line suggests. New Mexico coach Jason Eck is a master, and the Sooners could be in letdown mode after the loss at Michigan last week. Pick: New Mexico

BYU (-17.5) at Colorado State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: A trap game for the Cougars after winning their Big 12 opener (over Arizona) and now facing an opponent that won’t inspire much urgency. But the Rams have a solid quarterback, Hauss Hejny, from Oklahoma State, and could prove pesky. Pick: Colorado State

LSU (-3) at Mississippi
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford is the national game of the week and a security staff’s nightmare. Once the emotions fade and talent takes over, the visitors should show why they are one of the best teams in the country. As for LSU listing quarterback Sam Leavitt as doubtful on the injury report, well, that smells like a Kiffin ploy. Pick: LSU

James Madison (+2.5) at San Diego State
Kickoff: 7 p.m. on The CW
Comment: A sneaky-important game in the Group of Six playoff race between a (potential) Pac-12 contender and the best team in the Sun Belt. Do the Aztecs have enough offense? We’re skeptical of quarterback Jayden Denegal’s efficiency in the pocket. Of note: SDSU faced the Dukes’ former coach, Bob Chesney, who’s now at UCLA, last week. Pick: James Madison

Northern Illinois (+34.5) at Arizona
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on TNT
Comment: A team from Illinois competing in the Mountain West visiting Tucson to face a member of the Big 12 — there’s nothing like realignment. We were initially surprised by the size of the point spread, then checked Northern Illinois’ ledger. The loss to Illinois State suggests a wipeout is at hand. Pick: Arizona

Fresno State (-6.5) at San Jose State
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on FS1
Comment: The longtime rivals are in different conferences, but the bad blood remains. The Bulldogs have owned the series the past two years. We expect that to continue. Pick: Fresno State

Purdue (+14) at UCLA
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: Purdue is incrementally better in Year 2 under Barry Odom. If UCLA isn’t careful, this could be uncomfortably close in the fourth quarter. That said, it’s an 11 p.m. kickoff for the Boilermakers after the long trip and a double-overtime loss to Wake Forest last weekend. Pick: UCLA

Straight-up winners: Arizona State, USC, Alabama, Utah, Duke, Oklahoma, BYU, LSU, James Madison, Arizona, Fresno State and UCLA

Five-star special: New Mexico. A classic trap for Oklahoma, which won’t have the urgency required. The Lobos are the best team in the Mountain West, and Eck is about to become the hottest name on the coaching carousel. Don’t be surprised if the Lobos win the game outright.

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