Saturday Night Five (plus one): Oregon beats USC, Lincoln Riley’s future, Washington’s meltdown and Boise State’s statement

You know what they say: The more things change, the more USC wilts when it matters most.

The Trojans have a new defensive coordinator, a pricier roster and more NFL draft picks than at any point in Lincoln Riley’s tenure. But it all added up the same result against their greatest nemesis.

Well, not exactly the same result.

Last year, the Trojans lost at Oregon 42-27.

On Saturday, they were one point better, losing 41-27 in the game Riley had to win more than any other this season by a factor of eight bajillion.

Oregon overtook USC as the premier program on the West Coast, both on the field and the recruiting trail, more than a decade ago.

The Trojans hoped a massive upgrade in NIL funding, changes to the coaching staff and a stellar recruiting class would change the competitive landscape. Instead, it was more of the same.

Their high-powered offense wasn’t good enough when it needed to be.

Their defense was as porous as always.

Their discipline? Missing in action.

Toughness? Hahaha.

And here’s the kicker: They were beaten by a backup quarterback.

Oregon starter Dante Moore was knocked out of the game in the second quarter. (More on that below.) In stepped Dylan Raiola, a transfer from Nebraska, who proceeded to lead the Ducks to 38 points.

The total wasn’t entirely a surprise given that lowly Rutgers scored 35 points and gained 460 yards against the Trojans last week. But the damage Saturday evening was far more severe than a single loss: Riley’s future at USC is now very much in doubt.

The university and its deep-pocketed constituents have given the fifth-year coach everything he wanted. And yet he is no closer to beating Oregon than he was a year ago, or three years ago. (He has never beaten the Ducks, in fact.)

What’s more, the Trojans (3-1) also have a College Football Playoff problem. With one loss before September closes, they seemingly must win at least six of their final seven games to clear the likely threshold, a 10-2 overall record, needed for a CFP bid.

They can lose just once. And yet the schedule includes trips to Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn State and UCLA plus a home date with Ohio State.

The only way the Trojans qualify for the CFP is if they morph into a team that we have not seen during Riley’s tenure.

2. Oregon digs deep

Two words describe the result in Los Angeles from Oregon’s perspective: culture win.

The Ducks were fairly desperate due to their Week 2 loss at Oklahoma State, then suffered the shock of Moore’s injury early in the second quarter.

They channeled the emotion and dominated the second half on both sides of scrimmage.

They were tougher, more resourceful and more disciplined than USC. Ultimately, they outscored the Trojans 28-17 over the third and fourth quarters in what amounted to a get-right victory.

The MVP: Raiola, who completed 19-of-25 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns.

But the Oklahoma State loss continues to frame Oregon’s challenge.

No team with a 9-3 record has qualified for the CFP since the event’s inception in 2014.

In order to clear that bar, the Ducks (3-1) must win seven of their final eight games — essentially the same postseason math staring down at USC.

Because the Ducks visit Ohio State in early November, it’s easy to envision them needing to win every game that isn’t played in Columbus.

If they replicate the resolve displayed Saturday evening, that endgame is entirely plausible.

3. Ugly as ugly gets

The defining play of the most anticipated West Coast regular-season game in years was frightful: USC linebacker Desman Stephens bludgeoned Moore in shoulder-to-helmet fashion as the quarterback went into a feet-first slide.

Moore was on the turf for a prolonged period, then carted off and taken by ambulance to a local hospital. (He has movement in his extremities.)

Naturally, Oregon players went after Stephens.

Coach Dan Lanning was furious.

The medical staff rushed onto the field.

The sequence was as scary as they come.

Even worse than the hit itself was the classless response from a few USC players, including Stephens, who was caught on camera gloating and smiling while Moore was motionless on the field. (Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava, who is friendly with Moore, came onto the field to check on his counterpart.)

Naturally, Stephens was booted from the game for targeting, but the Big Ten has the authority to levy additional penalties for poor sportsmanship.

Don’t be surprised if the conference takes action. Stephens’ response was unbecoming of both USC and the Big Ten.

4. Meltdown on Montlake

Aside from Moore’s injury, Saturday could not have gone much better for Oregon, which beat the Trojans and then watched their primary rival, Washington, lose 27-24 at home to Minnesota.

It was a stunning result, for sure: The undefeated Huskies were double-digit favorites over a team that hadn’t won a road game since November 2024 and is a perennial second-tier finisher in the Big Ten.

But they were overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage in a fashion that signals major trouble in the weeks to come, when their schedule turns arduous.

At the moment, Washington does nothing well.

The defense is mediocre, and the offense is a mess. The Huskies (3-1) cannot run the ball effectively, protect quarterback Demond Williams Jr. or slice opponents through the air.

They are entirely mediocre — a development that first became evident in tougher-than-expected wins over Washington State and Utah State but turned crystal clear Saturday night.

“We’ve got to play better, I’ve got to coach better,” Jedd Fisch said after the game. “I’ve got to do a better job getting the team ready.”

All true. Very true.

5. Boise State: message sent

While several preseason favorites have lurched to the brink of playoff elimination (hello, Michigan and Texas A&M), one team has solidified its position within the College Football Playoff race: Boise State pummeled Western Michigan on Saturday in a significant Group of Six matchup.

One week after a narrow escape against South Dakota, the Broncos rolled to a 32-7 victory over the team that lost in controversial fashion at Michigan earlier in the month.

Combined with the narrow loss at Oregon and convincing victory over Memphis, the Broncos’ clock-cleaning in Kalamazoo makes them the clear frontrunner for the automatic bid reserved for the top team in the Group of Six.

They could afford one loss in Pac-12 play so long as they win the conference championship.

Or, the Broncos could run the table in the conference play and lose in the championship game.

In a notable development in the CFP selection process, the Group of Six representative does not have to win its conference title.

But the Broncos probably cannot afford more than one loss the rest of the way.

6. My Heisman ballot

One month down, two months remaining, here are the Hotline’s current Heisman Trophy frontrunners.

(We considered a handful of players from the West Coast, including Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita and BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier. But neither cracked our top five.)

1. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith. The best player in the country regardless of position sliced and diced Illinois for 12 catches and four touchdowns on Saturday. He’s arguably the best college wideout since Larry Fitzgerald.

2. Mississippi QB Trinidad Chambliss. The maestro was less than super-human on Saturday with one touchdown and one interception is a lopsided loss at Florida. That said, he remains in a league of his own for creativity and playmaking under pressure.

3. Florida TB Jadan Baugh. The junior rushed for 142 yards and three touchdowns in Florida’s upset of Mississippi and now has 600 yards in four games. Watch out for the Gators.

4. Miami QB Darian Mensah. No quarterback has been more efficient than Mensah (88.7 percent completions, 14 touchdowns, no interceptions). But we are hesitant to place him higher on the ballot because of the substandard competition Miami has faced thus far.

5. Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor. The rocket-armed sophomore has positioned the Bulldogs as one of the nation’s biggest surprises and slayed Missouri on Saturday with a game-winning touchdown in the final minutes.

Also considered: Alabama QB Keelon Russell, Arizona QB Noah Fifita, BYU QB Bear Bachmeier, Miami WR Malachi Toney, Notre Dame QB CJ Carr, Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, Texas QB Arch Manning and USC QB Jayden Maiava.