Phoenix seeking to become first team to recover from 4-12 start and make playoffs in current format during WNBA full season

There is still time.

Nate Tibbetts repeated that message twice after a Phoenix Mercury 20-point win over Seattle on June 20.

With more than 60 percent of the WNBA season remaining at that point, Tibbetts was correct about time being on the Mercury’s side to recover from a 4-12 start and make the playoffs. But having the time and doing something productive with it are distinctly different.

Tibbetts believed that the Mercury were playing “pretty well” over six games before June 20 even though the net result was 2-4. Being better wouldn’t be good enough unless the Mercury could spin June 20 into more extended winning. 

The Mercury understood the assignment, going 4-1 from June 20-July 2 before slipping up in a loss Tuesday to then six-win Chicago. Now 8-14 at midseason, they are in 12th place but within three games of the eighth and final playoff berth, currently held by Washington.

LA came back from 4-12, 3-14 starts in previous playoff format

There is limited precedent for what the Mercury are trying to accomplish.

Los Angeles made the playoffs despite a 4-12 start in 2010 and even more impressively came all the way from 3-14 in 2015 to a postseason berth. 

In both instances, the Sparks benefited from a conference structured playoff format and would not have advanced in the current format where the top eight teams qualify regardless of conference. 

Washington also overcame 4-12 to make the 2020 playoffs, but that season carries the caveat of being only 22 games and played entirely in Bradenton, Fla., due to COVID restrictions. 

So the Mercury would be doing something historic should they make the playoffs (current format) from 4-12 in a full season. 

Every 2025 playoff team, in the first regular season with 44 games, had a winning record. Before that – from 2016-24 – at least one team made the playoffs with a sub-.500 record including three in 2023. 

The Mercury have made the playoffs 19 times, five of those with a sub-.500 record and four under the current playoff format including Tibbetts’ first season in 2024.

But with 15 teams in the WNBA, the most since 16 in 2000-2002, the Mercury would have to beat out seven teams to claim even the final playoff berth. 

The Mercury still can win head-to-head playoff tiebreakers over all but one of the teams currently in eighth place or lower, already holding that edge over Seattle. They are 0-2 vs. Los Angeles (currently ninth) with two games remaining so earning that tiebreaker is more complex. 

The Mercury have yet to play Washington or Connecticut with a combined six games against those teams coming up in the second half. 

Per Tankathon.com, the Mercury have the sixth toughest remaining schedule, based on opponents combined winning percentage through Wednesday.

How Mercury fell into deep hole 

Even with the departure of Satou Sabally via free agency to New York, few would have imagined the 2025 WNBA finalist Mercury plunging to a 4-12 start.

But starting guard Moniqua Akoa Makani missed the first seven games due to the French league finals and four since because of injury. 

Veteran guard Sami Whitcomb required arthroscopic knee surgery May 7 with a longer-than-expected recovery that kept her out of the entire first half of the season. Her 3-point shooting prowess will be a welcome addition in the second half, and she is listed as probable for Thursday against Indiana.  

Guard Jovana Nogic, who scored a WNBA undrafted rookie record 27 points on May 15, left the Mercury for personal reasons after 16 games with plans not to return until 2027. She was contending to be the league rookie 3-point percentage leader. 

Don’t forget that forward Kathryn Westbeld, a 24-game starter in 2025, is out for the season with a major knee injury suffered at the end of her international season in Hungary.

The Mercury actually were without four key 2025 pieces – Sabally, Whitcomb, Akoa Makani and Westbeld – at the outset while trying to integrate international newcomers Nogic, Valeriane Ayayi, Noemi Brochant and Kyara Linskens. 

Yes, they were missing Kahleah Copper and Natasha Mack at the start in 2025 and still went 15-7 in the first half on the way to 27-17 overall. But that team had Sabally with Akoa Makani and Westbeld adapting quickly to the WNBA.

Aside from Nogic, this year’s international newcomers started slower. Particularly for 6-1 forward Ayayi, French national team captain, who scored just 23 points in her first 10 game while not getting court time in four others. In the last six games, she is averaging 15.5 points and 5 rebounds.

“The front office did a phenomenal job, they knew who she was,” Mercury associate head coach Kristi Toliver said. “Now we’re all getting to see it. All she needed was confidence and belief from her teammates, from the coaching staff. She’s very versatile with her length and size, and we can use her a lot of different ways. She’s kind of a Swiss Army knife.”

Ayayi, 32, said, “That was the first time being in that situation in my career, but also I’ve been through a lot. That’s just one more step that I have to adapt to reach. I’m not going to say that was easy especially because we were losing but I was just like the opportunity will come and I just need to be ready.”

Ayayi started the last two games because of Natasha Mack being out with a foot injury. 

Whatever starting and finishing lineups Tibbetts goes with in the second half, Whitcomb and Ayayi will be central to the playoff push. As will be Akoa Makani, Brochant and Lexi Held particularly when it comes to perimeter defense.

The Mercury lost Held, a 2025 contributor as a WNBA rookie, to Toronto in the expansion draft then brought her back after she was waived by the Tempo on May 28. She has started in the Mercury’s last six games and most successful stretch.

Salary cap space to add to roster 

Losing to Chicago, 77-66, Tuesday on the same day that the Mercury had no players voted by league coaches into the WNBA All-Star Game were reminders of what’s gone wrong in the first half and how little leeway in the second half.

“The turnovers and the offense were extremely disappointing,” Tibbetts said. “We were out of synch offensively from the start. The turnovers, we weren’t cutting, we weren’t crashing. It was tough.”

Alyssa Thomas leads the WNBA in assists (8.3 pg) and Kahleah Copper is sixth in scoring (20.8 ppg). Both are elite with 10-plus years experience that should serve them well in the crucible ahead. DeWanna Bonner, in her 17th season, is regularly adding to her legacy, now as the only player with WNBA career 8,000-plus points, 3,000-plus rebounds and 500-plus steals. Whitcomb also is an accomplished veteran leader.

The WNBA trade deadline is Aug. 2. With more than $1 million in salary cap space available per spotrac, Mercury general manager Nick U’Ren could consider adding to his roster. He has all three of his 2027 draft picks although most likely would not want to part with the first-rounder. 

The Mercury seem set at guard, particularly with Whitcomb returning, but could use additional size for rebounding and rim protection that would be needed to accomplish much in the playoffs. 

U’Ren might need to convert 6-3 forward Marta Suarez to full-time active as she draws closer to the 12 games she is allowed to play while under developmental status (nine so far). The Mercury currently have 10 of 12 allowed on the active roster. 

“We’re going to keep fighting, that’s what this group is about,” Tibbetts said after Tuesday’s loss to Chicago. “I think there’s still better basketball ahead for us. Tonight was a step in the wrong direction, but the goal is the playoffs.”

There is still time. Maybe.