Pac-12 point spreads: Relevant Territorial Cup history, Rivalry weekend

With two losing records, one interim coach, and nothing at stake except the Territorial Cup itself, the Arizona schools collide Friday for the 96th time.

Our focus here is the previous 22 affairs.

The Hotline examined the locations, point spreads, and results for every meeting this century to determine if any relevant trends existed.

We found:

— The Sun Devils are 15-7 overall and currently hold a five-game winning streak.

— ASU is 11-9-2 against the spread.

— On six occasions, the line has mirrored the situation this week, with Arizona as a home favorite.

The Wildcats are 2-4 straight up and 2-4 against the spread when giving points in Tucson.

The details …

Year: 2000
Line: Arizona -6
Winner: ASU 30-17

Year: 2006
Line: Arizona -2
Winner: ASU 28-14

Year: 2008
Line: Arizona -10
Winner: Arizona 31-10

Year: 2010
Line: Arizona -5
Winner: ASU 30-29

Year: 2012
Line: Arizona -2
Winner: ASU 41-34

Year: 2014
Line: Arizona -2
Winner: Arizona 42-34

ASU was favored in the past three matchups in Tucson — a stretch that includes the 70-7 victory in 2020 that marked the end of the Kevin Sumlin era.

The Wildcats were 20-point underdogs last season in Tempe under first-year coach Jedd Fisch and lost 38-15, although the game was close until late in the third quarter.

This time, the line favors Arizona, albeit narrowly.

How have the teams performed against the spread this season? Here are records for each Pac-12 team, according to teamrankings.com:

9-2: Oregon State
8-3: Oregon and Washington State
7-4: USC
6-5: Arizona, Cal, UCLA, Utah and Washington
4-7: Arizona State
2-9: Colorado and Stanford

To the details for Week 13 …

Lines from BetMGM and Caesars
Trends from oddsshark.com and Phil Steele’s College Football 2022

Arizona State at Arizona (Friday)
Line: Arizona -4.5 (total: 63.5)
Comment: Both combatants have been eliminated from bowl contention, but their situations aren’t identical: The Wildcats are on the upturn under Fisch while the Sun Devils face immense uncertainty and are playing their final game for interim coach Shaun Aguano. How will Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura respond after throwing four interceptions last week against Washington State? ASU has covered the spread once in its past five games. The Over has been the right call in seven of the past 10 Territorial Cups with the winner scoring at least 38 points in nine of the 10 meetings.

UCLA at Cal (Friday)
Line: UCLA -10 (total: 60.5)
Comment: The Bears were eliminated from the postseason two weeks ago but are coming off a come-from-behind victory over Stanford. The Bruins must regroup from a loss to USC that knocked them out of the Pac-12 title hunt. Cal has covered five of the past six games at home against UCLA while the Under has been the right call in the past nine meetings, regardless of location. And speaking of location: This is UCLA’s final appearance in Berkeley as a member of the Pac-12.

Oregon at Oregon State
Line: Oregon -3.5 (total: 57.5)
Comment: Oregon clinches a berth in the Pac-12 championship game with a victory while OSU is playing for bowl position. The Beavers have covered the spread in 11 consecutive home games. The Ducks have won 12 of the past 14 meetings and covered the spread in eight of them. Two years ago, OSU scored the winning touchdown in the final minute. The early weather forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low 50s. In other words: Oregon.

Utah at Colorado
Line: Utah -29.5 (total: 52.5)
Comment: Utah must win to remain in contention for a berth in the Pac-12 championship but needs Oregon to lose in a game that will unfold concurrently. Colorado has failed to cover a spread of 30-something points in each of the past three weeks (against Oregon, USC and Washington). Utah has won nine of the 11 meetings as members of the Pac-12 and covered the spread in four of the past five matchups. The early forecast calls for sun and temperatures in the mid-50s.

Notre Dame at USC
Line: USC -6.5 (total: 62.5)
Comment: The Trojans have clinched a spot in the Pac-12 title game but must beat Notre Dame to remain in the College Football Playoff race. After a poor start, the Irish have won eight of their past nine. (The only loss was to Stanford.) USC has covered the spread in seven of the past nine matchups against Notre Dame in the Coliseum. This is the 93rd meeting in one of the sport’s greatest rivalries.

Washington at Washington State
Line: Washington -2 (total: 58.5)
Comment: The Huskies are alive in the Pac-12 race but need Cal to beat UCLA on Friday and Oregon to lose in Corvallis. In other words, UW will know whether it’s playing for a berth in the championship before taking the field in Pullman for a 7:30 p.m. kickoff. The Huskies have covered the spread in six of the past seven Apple Cups but lost badly last year in Seattle. The Cougars have covered the spread in eight of their past 10 games overall. The early forecast calls for freezing temperatures at kickoff but no snow.

Brigham Young at Stanford
Line: BYU -6.5 (total: 57.5)
Comment: The Cougars are bowl-eligible after winning two in a row while Stanford is headed nowhere and must regroup from its come-from-ahead loss at Cal. BYU has covered the spread once in its past nine games. Stanford has lost seven in a row outright in November and dropped five consecutive games (anywhere, anytime) against the spread. This is the teams’ first meeting since 2004.

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