A few helpful reminders on the postseason selection process before we plunge into the latest Pac-12 bowl forecast:
— The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the College Football Playoff semifinals, leaving the Pac-12 champion to participate in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton bowls unless it qualifies for the CFP.
— The Pac-12 is contractually tied to seven games: the New Year’s Six, Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls.
— The Alamo, Las Vegas and Holiday bowls can jump one team in favor of another as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in conference record. The second-tier bowls (Sun, LA and Independence) must select teams in order of conference record.
The bowl projections will be published in this space each Tuesday.
College Football Playoff/Sugar Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: No two-loss team has ever reached the playoff, and the Pac-12 probably won’t be the conference to change the paradigm. Nor has any Pac-12 team gone undefeated in league play in the expansion era. So, can anyone finish 12-1 in this loaded conference? We view Washington as the best bet based on performance and personnel.
New Year’s Six/Fiesta Bowl
Team: Oregon
Comment: The winner of the Oregon-Washington showdown Oct. 14 becomes the frontrunner for the conference title and the CFP. Our current lean is to UW, largely because the head-to-head affair is in Seattle, but the super-mega-collision is essentially a toss-up. If the loser has no more than two losses, it should easily clear the threshold for a New Year’s Six invite.
Alamo Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: The bowl projections are fluid and take both recent performances and upcoming schedules into account. We haven’t seen enough from the Trojans, especially against a weak lineup of opponents, to believe they will navigate the season with fewer than three losses.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: We know the Las Vegas Bowl does not want to invite the loser of the Pac-12 championship game given that it would mean a return to Sin City just three weeks later. Until the Hotline sees Cam Rising on the field, we don’t foresee the Utes playing for the title. So a matchup against the Big Ten on Dec. 23 feels reasonable.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: Injuries always determine the trajectory of a season but might play an outsized role in WSU’s fate this fall. The Cougars have enough talent across their starting 22 to compete for the title. But do they have enough quality depth if a slew of injuries surface?
Sun Bowl
Team: Colorado
Comment: Every bowl will want the Buffaloes, because the Deion Sanders Show is guaranteed to sell tickets locally. As a result, CU would only fall to the Sun if the losses mount and its conference record doesn’t justify a top-tier game under the selection parameters.
LA Bowl
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The Beavers aren’t operating on all cylinders. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei isn’t as efficient as he needs to be, and the defense isn’t quite stout enough. Unless the deficiencies are fixed quickly, OSU could lose so much ground that a top-tier bowl berth falls out of reach.
Independence Bowl
Team: UCLA
Comment: Meet the anti-Colorado — the team most bowls would rather not invite. Conference record likely will dictate UCLA’s landing spot. And if there’s a tie, slot the Bruins into the lowest game in the pecking order.
At-large bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: The Wildcats were a few points away from losing at Stanford, which would have knocked them off the bowl board and into the realm of the non-qualifiers. They owe this spot to backup quarterback Noah Fifita and his clutch play in the fourth quarter.
Non-qualifier
Team: Cal
Comment: If the Bears lose at home to Arizona State this week, they are toast. There simply aren’t enough wins left on a schedule that includes USC, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah and UCLA — not for a team with erratic quarterback play.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: The Cardinal just went 0-2 in games it absolutely had to win to make the bowl math work. As a result, the bowl math doesn’t work.
Ineligible
Team: Arizona State
Comment: In late August, the Sun Devils self-imposed a postseason ban resulting from recruiting violations committed during the tenure of former coach Herm Edwards. An epic failure of leadership, in every regard, by ASU’s administration.
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