Pac-12 bowl projections: The Apple Cup matters more to Washington’s postseason math than you might think

In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools are tied to the bowls affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present.

The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.

Please note: Our latest CFP picks can be found here.

It took some creative scheduling and a hefty dose of willpower on all four campuses, but rivalry week has arrived in the Pacific Northwest.

For the first time since the 1930s, the Apple Cup and Civil War will be played before November.

For the first time ever, they will be played before the autumnal equinox.

What’s not different: The outcomes will impact the bowl math for each participant, especially Washington.

That’s right. We are singling out the Huskies.

Not because they are the least talented team — clearly, their personnel is superior to that of Washington State and Oregon State.

Not because they have looked unsteady thus far — of the four teams, Oregon has been the least impressive.

And not because they need a postseason berth to remain relevant — in that respect, the pressure is on WSU and OSU.

Instead, we believe Washington (2-0) possesses the most challenging schedule and therefore the trickiest path to securing six victories.

If they lose to WSU on Saturday afternoon at Lumen Field, the Huskies would need to win four of their final nine games.

That doesn’t sound daunting until you examine the upcoming schedule.

They have home dates with Northwestern, Michigan, USC and UCLA. Based on what we have seen thus far, the Huskies should be substantial favorites against the Wildcats and Bruins. The other two are anything but locks (despite how vulnerable Michigan looked against Texas).

The five-game road schedule features trips to Rutgers, Iowa, Indiana, Penn State and Oregon. In our view, UW will be favored in as many as two (Rutgers and Indiana), but all five are eminently losable given the travel involved and the potential for challenging kickoff times. (Also, the Scarlet Knights were bowl-eligible last season.)

So if they lose the Apple Cup, the Huskies will need four wins in nine games but figure to be clear favorites in only two — not exactly the widest of paths, folks.

But if they win the Apple Cup, then UW merely needs to take care of its business against Northwestern and UCLA and find one victory elsewhere.

Maybe it’s in Bloomington.

Maybe it’s in Eugene.

Perhaps it’s at home against the defending national champions.

Put another way: The Huskies should go bowling regardless of the Apple Cup result; but the path is notably wider if they handle Washington State.

To the bowl projections …

College Football Playoff
Team: Utah (Big 12 champion)
Comment: This selection assumes quarterback Cam Rising (fingers) returns in time for the Utes’ dastardly double-dip against Oklahoma State (road) and Arizona (home) in the second half of September. Because if they lose both, the calculation changes — for the Big 12 title and the CFP automatic bid.

College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: Sticking with our preseason prediction, albeit with rapidly decreasing conviction. The bar remains unchanged: Finish with no more than two losses, and a CFP berth awaits; finish with three losses, including one in the Big Ten title game, and they are probably CFP-bound, as well.

College Football Playoff
Team: USC (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: We could regret this projection in a matter of weeks. But combine USC’s improved defense with flawed performances by Oregon and Michigan and the Trojans look fully capable of finishing in the top four of the Big Ten. On that tier, the Trojans will be well-positioned for an at-large bid.

Alamo Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: With three Pac-12 bowl teams in the CFP, everyone else jumps up several rungs in the selection order. We envision the Huskies winning seven or eight games, which could be enough for a return to the Alamo, where they beat Texas in 2022.

Holiday Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: All things being equal, every bowl but the Alamo would want the Wildcats. But the likelihood of everything being equal is closer to 50 percent than 100 percent. Colorado, Washington State and even ASU could be coveted commodities.

Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: The Cougars have played well enough for the Hotline to raise the expected victory total to the point that WSU could finish two games clear of Colorado, thereby assuring itself of priority treatment based on the selection rules.

Sun Bowl
Team: Colorado
Comment: From the looks of the offensive line — and it looks like a turnstile — six wins might be the best-case scenario. If they qualify, the Buffaloes would be preferred over any team with six or seven wins but could not jump teams with eight victories.

LA Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: The Bears took a giant leap toward their second consecutive bowl berth with the upset of Auburn. And if they do qualify, the LA Bowl makes sense given their large alumni contingent in the area and the absence of a regular-season game at UCLA or USC for the first time since 1931.

Independence Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: Yes, we believe — for now. The Sun Devils need a victory Thursday at Texas State to maintain a reasonable margin for error once conference play begins. But the path to six wins is more manageable than it seemed a few weeks ago.

ESPN bowl
Team: Oregon State
Comment: Two solid performances — and weakness in the Mountain West — have enhanced OSU’s postseason outlook. This slot could send the Beavers to any of several ESPN-controlled bowls, with the Gasparilla, Armed Forces and First Responders the most likely.

Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: Last year, the Cardinal was officially eliminated from the postseason (with its seventh loss) on Nov. 11. Can it extend that date by a few weeks? Progress comes in many forms, after all.

Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: The Bruins had an extra week to prepare for the Big Ten opener against Indiana and had best take advantage because of the insane triple-whammy that awaits: Starting Sept. 21, they face LSU (road), Oregon (home) and Penn State (road) in succession.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline