Pac-12 basketball: NBA Draft decisions, transfer portal moves wallop the conference (but there’s time to mitigate the impact)

By Jon Wilner

The deadline for early-entry candidates to declare for the NBA Draft is less than a week away, leaving little time for more to go wrong for the Pac-12.

Thus far, the conference has taken a beating on the personnel front.

Most of the established players with NBA talent have chosen to enter the draft — the primary exception being Boogie Ellis, USC’s all-conference guard, who reversed course and plans to return for the 2023-24 season.

Add the expected exodus into the transfer portal, and the 12 programs are (collectively) deep in negative territory.

The talent scale should rebalance somewhat over the coming weeks as transfers pick their destination and draft-bound players reconsider their options. But it will take a substantial shift in fortune for the conference to fully offset the losses.

We have included three categories of players in the assessment below: declared participants in the pre-draft process; transfers (inbound and outbound); and notable recruits.

Not every player entering or leaving the conference is listed, and the situation will remain highly fluid through May.

(Transfers taken from 247Sports database.)

Arizona
Key departures: Kerr Kriisa (transfer), Azuolas Tubelis (NBA)
Notable arrival: F KJ Lewis (recruit)
Comment: Kriisa’s exit is a benefit and clears the way for promising guard Kylan Boswell to take charge of the offense. Tubelis isn’t currently projected as a first-rounder but seems likely to remain in the draft nonetheless. Expect additional moves as Tommy Lloyd mixes his international recruiting connections with the transfer portal to craft a roster better equipped to deal with the rock fights of March.

Arizona State
Key departures: Frankie Collins (NBA), Warren Washington (NBA), Devan Cambridge (transfer), DJ Horne (transfer)
Notable arrivals: G Adam Miller (LSU), F Kamari Lands (Louisville), G Braelon Green (recruit), F Akil Watson (recruit)
Comment: A typical offseason for the Sun Devils, who make frequent use of the transfer portal. (We have listed only half the players in the portal.) Expect Washington to return following the draft workouts, and Collins might, as well. Miller is a major pickup for ASU — he averaged 11.5 points per game for LSU — and Lands has significant upside.

Cal
Key departures: Sam Alajiki (transfer), Lars Thiemann (transfer), Kuany Kuany (transfer), Joel Brown (transfer)
Notable arrivals: F Fardaws Aimaq (Texas Tech), G Jalen Cone (NAU)
Comment: New coach Mark Madsen wasted little time upgrading the roster using the portal. Cone averaged 17.6 ppg for NAU, while Aimaq, an impact player in the Big 12, rejoins his former coach. (Before his year at Texas Tech, Aimaq was the top player on Madsen’s roster at Utah Valley.) Look for more moves this spring.

Colorado
Key departures: Tristan da Silva (NBA), Dominique Clifford (transfer), Lawson Lovering (transfer)
Notable arrivals: C Eddie Lampkin (TCU), F Cody Williams (recruit), C Assane Diop (recruit)
Comment: Da Silva is not considered a first-round prospect and left open the option to return. If he comes back, the Buffaloes will be well positioned next season: Lampkin is a force in the paint while Williams stands as the top-rated recruit to ever join CU’s roster. Clifford and Lovering were role players whose departures will be easily mitigated.

Oregon
Key departures: Rivaldo Soares (transfer), Lok Wur (transfer), Kel’el Ware (transfer)
Notable arrivals: F Kwame Evans (recruit), F Mookie Cook (recruit), G Jackson Shelstad (recruit)
Comment: The list of high-profile recruits who have failed to make a high-level impact in Eugene is growing by the season — Ware was merely the latest example — so forgive the Hotline for being slightly skeptical about the touted transformative abilities of Evans and Cook. Soares recently entered the portal and might not be the last Duck to depart.

Oregon State
Key departure: Glenn Taylor Jr. (transfer)
Notable arrival: F Gavin Marrs (recruit)
Comment: Not much movement in Corvallis. The Beavers were young in 2022-23 and are scheduled to return a bevy of rotation players — so far, they have been dinged, not slammed, by attrition. Yes, Taylor’s loss is significant. But if nobody follows him into the portal, OSU might be able to build on its incremental improvement.

Stanford
Key departure: Harrison Ingram (transfer)
Notable arrivals: F Andrej Stojakovic (recruit), G Kanaan Carlyle (recruit)
Comment: Stop us if you’ve heard this before: High-profile recruit joins Stanford, fails to meet expectations, and exits the program after one or two seasons. Ingram is the latest example — remember Ziaire Williams? — and the question for Jerod Haase and Co. is whether Stojakovic, a five-star prospect and son of the former NBA star Peja Stojakovic, breaks the trend or continues it.

UCLA
Key departures: Amar Bailey (NBA), Tyger Campbell (NBA), Jaylen Clark (NBA), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (NBA)
Notable arrivals: Lazar Stefanovic (Utah), G Sebastian Mack (recruit), F Devin Williams (recruit), F Brandon Williams (recruit), Ilane Fibleuil (recruit)
Comment: As expected, the core of UCLA’s rotation is moving on despite eligibility remaining. (We expect Bailey, a freshman, to remain in the draft and possibly climb into the first round.) Stefanovic should help immediately given his production for the Utes, while Fibleuil, who plays in France, could be one of the top newcomers in the conference.

USC
Key departure: Reese Dixon-Waters (transfer)
Notable arrivals: G Isaiah Collier (recruit), C Arrinten Page (recruit)
Comment: With Ellis’ surprising return and Collier’s anticipated arrival — he’s the No. 1 recruit in the country — the Trojans should have the best backcourt in the conference. Add the length, athleticism and defensive prowess of the other returnees, including Kobe Johnson, and USC just might enter the season as the Pac-12 favorite.

Utah
Key departures: Branden Carlson (NBA), Lazar Stefanovic (transfer)
Notable arrivals: C Lawson Lovering (Colorado)
Comment: Other players are exiting Salt Lake City, but we view Stefanovic and Carlson as the critical losses. Don’t discount the potential for the latter to return following his pre-draft workouts. Lovering never seemed settled in Boulder, but if the Utes make the most of his potential and Carlson returns, the frontcourt should be one of the Pac-12’s best.

Washington
Key departures: Noah Williams (transfer), Keyon Menifield (transfer), Cole Bajema (transfer), P.J. Fuller (transfer)
Notable arrivals: G Anthony Holland (Fresno State), F Moses Wood (Portland), G Wesley Yates (recruit)
Comment: Who isn’t in the portal for the Huskies? We have listed four players, but there are eight scheduled for departure. (Menifield’s loss is the most impactful.) Holland and Wood bring experience but have limited upside. So far, coach Mike Hopkins hasn’t found this year’s version of Terrell Brown Jr. or Keion Brooks.

Washington State
Key departures: Mouhamed Gueye (NBA), TJ Bamba (NBA), Justin Powell (NBA), Dishon Jackson (transfer)
Notable arrival: C Rueben Chinyelu (recruit)
Comment: The Cougars are on the short list of hardest-hit programs given that Gueye, Bamba and Powell combined for 40.5 ppg. Powell might return, but Gueye is likely to remain in the draft and Bamba has committed to Villanova (if he stays in college). Considering coach Kyle Smith’s eye for talent, we won’t discount the possibility of Chinyelu having a highly productive debut season.

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