NFL Draft preview: Pac-12 poised for three stellar days before it fades to black

If everything breaks right for the conference where so much has gone wrong, the Pac-12 will make history before it becomes history.

The 2024 NFL Draft could be the most productive on record for the Pac-12, which is expected to produce the No. 1 overall pick with USC quarterback Caleb Williams heading to Chicago on Thursday night.

(Williams will be the sixth No. 1 selection in USC history, joining offensive tackle Ron Yary, running backs O.J. Simpson and Ricky Bell, receiver Keyshawn Johnson and quarterback Carson Palmer. No other college has produced more than five.)

At least three dozen of Williams’ former Trojans teammates and Pac-12 opponents will hear their names called over three hotly anticipated days in Detroit.

A recent seven-round mock draft published by NFL.com analyst Chad Reuter showed 42 players selected from the Pac-12. Another mock, published this week by The Athletic, assigned 40 selections to the Pac-12. And Pro Football Focus, the analytics-based website, showed the Pac-12 with 38 picks.

Since the NFL trimmed the draft to seven rounds 30 years ago, the conference record is 39 selections, set in 2015 — a few months after one of the most successful regular seasons in conference history.

Also within range this week: The Pac-12 record for first-round selections.

Nine players were picked on Day One back in 2015, with Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota leading the way as the No. 2 selection (to Tennessee).

This week, five players are considered locks for the first round: Williams, Washington receiver Rome Odunze, Oregon State offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga, Washington offensive tackle Troy Fautanu and UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu.

In addition, quarterback Bo Nix of Oregon and Michael Penix Jr. of Washington are viewed by many as possible, if not likely first-round selections.

(Two Pac-12 quarterbacks have been picked in the first round on several occasions, with USC’s Sam Darnold and UCLA’s Josh Rosen in 2018 as the most recent instance. The conference has never had three quarterbacks picked in the first round.)

Another handful of prospects are considered borderline Day One picks, with Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson, Arizona offensive tackle Jordan Morgan, Oregon receiver Troy Franklin and Washington State safety Jaden Hicks leading that list.

To break its nine-year-old record, the Pac-12 would need 10 of those 11 players to be selected on Thursday.

While that scenario seems unlikely, little goes according to script with the Pac-12, which will cease to exist as we know it this summer when 10 of the 12 schools depart.

The two left behind, Washington State and Oregon State, will be well represented this weekend in Detroit.

Fuaga will become Oregon State’s first Day One selection since receiver Brandin Cooks a decade ago. Safety Kitan Oladapo and receiver Anthony Gould are expected to be picked, as well.

Washington State should generate at least three picks: Hicks is the top prospect, followed by end Brennan Jackson and cornerback Chau Smith-Wade.

Of the departing schools, only Arizona State is considered unlikely to generate a selection.

Washington should lead the way with as many as 12 players picked. (The school record during the seven-round era is 10 selections, set in 1998.)

Oregon and USC have a slew of prospects, as well.

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