NCAA Tournament: Our best bets for the first round as power conferences look to continue their dominance

The NCAA Tournament’s rich history is rapidly becoming a poor basis for picking winners. Using extensive research — and a load of common sense — the Hotline has concluded only one of the 86 years is relevant to the latest edition: last year.

The 2025 tournament marked the first convergence of the three great roster-shaping forces of the current era: conference realignment, the transfer portal and NIL.

Trends that existed prior to ’25 are not your friend. They are irrelevant for both the office pool and wagering against the point spread.

What did we find upon examining the 2025 tournament? Heavyweights dominated.

All the No. 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds won their first-round games.

Only the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC were represented in the Sweet 16, marking the first time (ever) that no team outside the major football-playing conferences reached the regional round.

Cinderellas did not exist.

The transfer portal and NIL have flattened the sport, but only at the top — only within the bloated, post-realignment power conferences.

The disparity in talent between the top leagues and everyone else is expanding as the rich schools use their resources (and the portal) to raid the best players from mid-major and low-major schools.

And the oddsmakers see it.

According to ESPN, the average point spreads this week in the No. 4 vs. No. 13 games (14.3 points) and the No. 3 vs. 14 games (19.5 points) are the largest ever.

Also, all No. 2 seeds are favored by at least 20 points, which hasn’t happened since 1986.

We expect a few upsets. They are inevitable. But by Sunday evening, the Sweet 16 could once again be devoid of the teams that for decades put the madness in March.

The following picks against the spread are for entertainment purposes only.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

(All times Pacific)

No. 13 Troy (+13.5) over No. 4 Nebraska
Tipoff: Thursday at 9:40 a.m. on truTV
Comment: The Cornhuskers will face extreme pressure to secure their first NCAA Tournament victory (ever), while the Trojans are better than you might expect: They not only won the Sun Belt tournament but won at San Diego State and lost narrowly at USC early in the season.

No. 7 Saint Mary’s (-8.5) over No. 10 Texas A&M (in Oklahoma City)
Tipoff: Thursday at 4:35 p.m. on truTV
Comment: It’s a credit to Gaels coach Randy Bennett that his low-profile program is a substantial favorite over one of the richest schools in the country. And honestly, this game should not be close. SMC’s stifling defense will cause massive problems for the Aggies’ erratic attack.

No. 3 Gonzaga (-19.5) over Kennesaw State (in Portland)
Tipoff: Thursday at 7 p.m. on TBS
Comment: The Owls were 10-10 in Conference USA, then won the tournament to claim their second NCAA bid. They are no match for Gonzaga, especially with a wobbly defense that will struggle to limit Graham Ike and Co. Some lopsided first-round point spreads are worrisome because of the potential for back-door covers. This isn’t one of them.

No. 10 Santa Clara (+3.5) over No. 7 Kentucky (in St. Louis)
Tipoff: Friday at 9:15 a.m. on CBS
Comment: Not the spread you might expect given the disparity in tradition and roster value: The Wildcats are believed to have spent $22 million in revenue sharing and NIL, compared to roughly $3 million for the Broncos. But cohesiveness has value, and SCU coach Herb Sendek has done a masterful job acquiring pieces that fit together.

No. 12 Akron (+7.5) over No. 5 Texas Tech (in Tampa)

Tipoff: Friday at 9:40 a.m. on truTV
Comment: The Red Raiders performed exceedingly well immediately following forward JT Toppin’s season-ending knee injury. But reality eventually arrived — they lost by 22 points in the Big 12 tournament — and it should get comfortable on the TTU bench Friday morning. Although Miami (Ohio) grabbed the spotlight, the Zips were the most talented team in the MAC.

No. 16 LIU (+31.5) over No. 1 Arizona (in San Diego)
Tipoff: Friday at 10:35 a.m. on TNT
Comment: The Sharks are a cute March Madness story — they were 3-26 a few years ago — and have a former NBA player in charge (Rod Strickland), but they should not pose a threat to the Wildcats in any form or fashion. That said, the number is simply too large for our liking. A few sloppy possessions in the final minutes by Arizona reserves and LIU could stroll through the back door.

No. 9 Utah State (-2.5) over No. 8 Villanova (in San Diego)
Tipoff: Friday at 1:10 p.m. on TNT
Comment: The seeds easily could be flipped in this matchup — the winner will face Arizona — and we believe the right team is favored. (The Aggies undoubtedly will use their perceived seed snub as motivation.) Part of our calculus for picking against Villanova: The Big East had a substandard season.

No. 7 UCLA (-5.5) over No. 10 UCF (in Philadelphia)
Tipoff: Friday at 4:25 p.m. on TBS
Comment: One of the most interesting matchups of the first round. UCF suffered several unseemly losses but also beat Texas Tech, Kansas and BYU in conference play. The Bruins raised their game in the Big Ten tournament and, with hobbling starters Donovan Dent and forward Tyler Bilodeau, will benefit from the extra rest (i.e., the Friday tipoff). We’re sensing some March 2021 vibes from UCLA.

Straight-up winners: Nebraska, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, Santa Clara, Akron, Arizona, Utah State and UCLA

Five-star special: Santa Clara. Three decades after the 10th-seeded Broncos upset Maryland in the first round with Steve Nash at the helm, they author another takedown. This time, the victim is one of the most storied programs in the sport.

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