Jon Wilner
The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@
And if you missed it, last week’s mailbag examined the post-realignment status of the Pac-12, West Coast Conference and Mountain West.
You covered Arizona basketball during Lute Olson’s heyday and have followed the program before and since. If the Arizona ’97 and UCLA ’95 national title teams are on the Mount Rushmore of West Coast college hoops, which other teams make the cut in the 64-team tournament era? —@beardownbaby99
A stellar question considering Arizona is just two wins away from ending the West Coast’s 29-year national championship drought.
Notably, the drought itself began after the Wildcats and Bruins combined to win two NCAA titles in three years. Nobody could have foreseen in the spring of ’97 that the region wouldn’t celebrate again for decades, especially with two more western teams, Utah and Stanford, reaching the Final Four the following year.
Questions of this nature often use a timeframe that begins with the end of the UCLA dynasty: What’s the best West Coast team since John Wooden’s last national title in 1975?
But we find tournament expansion, to 64 teams in 1985, to offer a better demarcation point for the modern era of March Madness, in large part because it essentially coincides with the implementation of the shot clock in 1986.
Before examining the candidates, one issue must be addressed: the difference between the best teams and the most successful teams.
As an example, the Hotline doesn’t believe Arizona ’97 was the best team the Wildcats produced under Hall of Fame coach Lute Olson, but that edition got hot at the right moment, beat three No. 1 seeds, won two overtime games and cut down the nets.
Now, two important qualifiers:
— We defined West Coast schools as any campus located in the Pacific or Mountain Time Zones. If Tucson is considered the West Coast, so, too, is Las Vegas.
— To be considered for a spot on our Mount Rushmore, teams had to reach the Final Four.
Yes, that eliminates Arizona ’98, which opened the season No. 1, blasted its way through the Pac-12 and was the No. 1 seed in the West. But the Wildcats were run off the court in the Elite Eight (by Utah) and cannot, for that reason, be considered one of the region’s greatest teams.
The question leaves room for two spots. That made the process more challenging because if you placed all the candidates into a single-elimination tournament, UCLA ’95 and Arizona ’97 might not even reach the semifinals.
The following teams were eligible but missed the first cut: Arizona ’94, Stanford ’98, UCLA ’06, UCLA ’07, Oregon ’17, Gonzaga ’17, UCLA ’21 and San Diego State ’23.
The following teams survived our first cut: UNLV ’91, Utah ’98, Arizona ’01, UCLA ’08 and Gonzaga ’21.
That leaves two teams to join UCLA ’95 and Arizona ’97 on the Mount Rushmore of West Coast basketball in the tournament’s modern era:
— Arizona ’88. For our money, this was the best Olson team, an absolute powerhouse led by Sean Elliott and Steve Kerr that beat five top-10 teams in non-conference play and smashed North Carolina in the Elite Eight. But the Wildcats (35-3) turned frigid from the field at precisely the wrong time and lost to Oklahoma in the Final Four.
— UNLV ’90. Often overshadowed in March Madness lore by the ’91 edition, these Runnin’ Rebels lost a few games early but were an F-5 tornado by tournament time and blew Duke off the floor in the championship game. Yes, they had Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon, Greg Anthony and Anderson Hunt. But what set them apart from the ’91 version, in our view, was the presence of a stellar big man, David Butler, who was not on the team the following year.
That’s our Mount Rushmore, folks: Arizona ’88, UNLV ’90, UCLA ’95 and Arizona ’97.
It’s not necessarily the most talented teams or the four we would expect to survive an all-in tournament with the best of the west from the past 40 years. But they have the requisite hardware and resumes.
And yes, we will certainly reconsider our decision if Arizona ’26 is the last team standing Monday night.
Curious to get your thoughts on why we haven’t seen an NCAA Men’s Tournament champion from the West Coast since Arizona won the title in 1997? You’d think Gonzaga, UCLA, Arizona or Oregon would have broken through. — @EMBWildcat21
There is some misfortune involved, for sure. A bounce here, an injury there — winning six single-elimination games is immensely difficult.
But if we’re being honest, the main reason for the 29-year drought is UCLA’s descent into extended mediocrity.
The Bruins are the region’s only true blue blood and, over the course of decades, possessed a vastly better chance to construct a championship roster than any school aside from Arizona.
When USC football isn’t operating at peak efficiency, the West Coast is far less likely to produce a national champ. The same is true with UCLA basketball. Aside from three years under Ben Howland and the miracle run in the screwy 2021 tournament, the Bruins have been no better than semi-relevant.
In fact, for much of the past 15 years, Gonzaga has been the best team on the West Coast, with two appearances in the championship game and a barrage of Sweet 16 bids.
Final thought: Although we don’t have data to support this theory, the Hotline firmly believes many of the legacy Pac-12 schools de-emphasized men’s basketball over the final 10 or 12 years of the conference’s existence.
There was too much focus on the Olympic sports, in large part because the commissioner at the time, Larry Scott, seemed to care more about winning softball and tennis titles than excelling in football or basketball.
He said as much, many times. And that sentiment flowed from his office to the university presidents and down to the athletic departments.
Again, we can’t prove that was the case. But the Pac-12 was a terrific basketball conference in prior decades, then turned mediocre in the 2010s.
What’s the problem with the NCAA expanding the Big Dance to 76 teams? — Steve O
The Hotline is not in favor of expansion, in large part because March Madness would not become a better event with 15-loss Oklahoma and 16-loss Auburn in the field. (They were the first teams left out on Selection Sunday.)
If the NCAA guaranteed that half the eight additional at-large slots would be reserved for mid-major teams that didn’t win their conference tournaments, our view might change.
But everyone knows the majority of the extra bids, if not the entirety, will go to mediocre teams in the power conferences — the Auburns and Oklahomas and West Virginias (14 losses) and Stanfords (12) — and, frankly, we have no interest in seeing them play.
There needs to be some degree of exclusivity, after all. If the NCAA woke up tomorrow and opted to eliminate the First Four, we would be thrilled: 64 is perfection.
(The Hotline opposes a 24-team College Football Playoff for the same reason. We could live with 16, but 24 is a terrible idea.)
Although proponents of tournament expansion focus on the increased access it would offer, the unspoken reason is, of course, cash. More teams in the field would mean more games and more money from the TV partners and more job security for coaches and athletic directors — not to mention larger performance bonuses for both.
Having said that, expansion is inevitable. In the coming weeks, the sport’s power brokers will likely approve a 76-team field for next spring.
Because for all their faults and failings, college sports executives are absolutely the gold standard when it comes to screwing up a good thing.
What is the latest on the Pac-12 vs. Mountain West lawsuit and how that may affect UNLV, Air Force and the Pac-12? — @CelestialMosh
Magistrate judge Susan van Keulen has issued a few rulings in the past 10 days, but none should materially alter the trajectory of the case.
The parties are engaged in discovery, and the process likely will take the rest of 2026. According to the case calendar, summary judgment is scheduled for March and the trial for July.
In our view, any settlement would not come until sometime in 2027, so get comfortable.
That timeline suggests UNLV and Air Force won’t have full clarity on the Mountain West’s financial picture for another year.
We view the schools as more likely to remain where they are for the duration of the media rights cycle than to skip to the Pac-12 (UNLV) and American (Air Force).
But as the Hotline has stated 100 times in the past few years, realignment is fluid.
Any idea what the 2026-27 bowl lineup will be for the Big Ten and Pac-12 schools (both old and new)? — Bruce C
Our best guess? Any changes for the upcoming season will be minor in nature. Bowl executives are waiting for the College Football Playoff to determine its future format (16 teams or 24) before overhauling the postseason.
With the CFP sticking with 12 teams for the 2026 season, it makes sense for the bowl system to keep its shape, as well.
The situation is slightly more complicated in the Pac-12 and Mountain West footprints because of the membership changes this summer.
Will the legacy Pac-12 schools remain tied to the Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday and Sun Bowls? What about the legacy Mountain West schools remaining with their existing partners?
One scenario to consider: The Pac-12 would not want nine-win San Diego State, with Mountain West bowl ties, going to a lower-level game than six-win Washington State, which would have Pac-12 tie-ins.
Also, the LA Bowl has shuttered after five not-so-memorable years, removing an option for both conferences.
So there will be adjustments at some level.
But the situation is not unlike a Jenga tower. Altering one or two bowl affiliations can create a compounding mess for conferences, schools and TV networks.
That’s just the 2026 season, however. We expect a full overhaul in 2027.
As Yahoo reported recently, one option would be to create a 10-game package involving 20 teams from the power conferences that don’t qualify for the CFP.
What that would mean for the other bowls is unclear.
Did the Pac-12 and Big West just create the blueprint for the future of Olympic sports? Who benefits most from the soccer partnership? — @CurtisBlack
If you missed the news, here’s a synopsis: Four Big West teams (Cal Baptist, Cal Poly, UC Riverside, and UC San Diego) will compete in the Pac-12 as affiliate members in 2026-27.
The arrangement solved a numbers problem in which the Pac-12 had three men’s soccer teams and the Big West had 13.
Pulling four from the latter gives both conferences a manageable amount for competition, especially with the scheduling partnership in place for next season.
It’s a temporary solution that could inform future decisions on conference structure. And the same could be said of Sacramento State and Northern Illinois competing as football-only members of the MAC and Mountain West, respectively, in the next contract cycle.
Most industry executives recognize the Olympic sports should be reorganized along regional lines — that includes basketball, by the way — but that doesn’t mean it will happen anytime soon.
College sports moves at a glacial pace unless court orders dictate otherwise.
Not a question, but I hope Bob Thompson returns to the ‘Canzano and Wilner‘ podcast. Love hearing his insights. — @TreySwaggart2
Thompson, the retired Fox Sports president, is to our podcast what Steve Martin (or Tom Hanks?) is to ‘Saturday Night Live.’ He has been a guest enough times to warrant a robe or slippers or at least a pipe.
We’ll ask him back later this year, perhaps when the NFL has taken material steps to renegotiate its media deals.
That development, not changes to the CFP format or NCAA Tournament expansion, stands as the most significant story in college sports this year.
Will the networks use all their cash to secure long-term rights to the NFL? (If so, how much will remain for college football and basketball at the end of the decade?)
Will a major player lose its NFL package? (That might be the best outcome for the conferences.)
Thompson understands the landscape and can walk us through the downstream effects of the NFL’s next move.
Thanks for the sentiment.
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