Jon Wilner
The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Please send questions to wilnerhotline@
In case you missed it, last week’s mailbag examined the increasing frequency of non-conference blowouts caused, in part, by NIL and the transfer portal.
The Pac-12 has completed its non-conference schedule. How would you grade each team, as well as the conference as a whole, going into league play? — @Seattleite206
It’s rare for a major college conference to return from the dead. Although the first game of the season involving a Pac-12 team was Sept. 4, when Fresno State played USC, intra-conference competition begins this weekend.
To commemorate the league’s Lazarus impersonation, the Hotline is happy to grade each team and the conference writ large for the performances through September.
Here we go …
Boise State: The narrow loss at Oregon, combined with wins over Memphis, Western Michigan and South Dakota, made for a stellar first month for the Broncos — to the point that comparisons to 2024 seem appropriate. And we all know where the journey ended that year. Grade: A
Colorado State: The Rams exceeded our expectations under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. with two victories and a general vibe of competence. We had pegged CSU as a candidate for the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. That appears to have a whiff. Grade: B+
Fresno State: The Week 1 blowout loss at USC notwithstanding, the Bulldogs managed their business in the other three games and look like a contender. If their first-half play matches their second-half performance, watch out. Grade: B
Oregon State: When does 2-2 feel more like 4-0? When your rookie coach (JaMarcus Shephard) transforms the culture and energizes the program, and when the two losses were close games against ranked opponents. There is a non-zero chance of the Beavers winning the Pac-12, and we never imagined that would be the case. Grade: A
San Diego State: The opening month could not have gone any worse for the Aztecs, who were beaten decisively by UCLA and James Madison, run off the field by Toledo, struggled to score and, in the final days of September, were hit with an outbreak of the mumps. What are the Aztecs using for their playbook, Murphy’s Law? Grade: F
Texas State: The last school to join the conference should not be last in the standings. The Bobcats recorded one of the Pac-12’s best wins (over North Texas) and would warrant an A if they had held on against UTSA. Grade: B-
Utah State: A close call at Washington and win over Troy were the highlights. But the lowlight, a season-opening home loss to Idaho State (by 12 points), defined the entire month. That cannot happen. Grade: D
Washington State: The trajectory was set as soon as the schedule was finalized with three power conference opponents (Washington, Kansas State and Arizona). That said, we expected the Cougars to be more competitive overall and more competent on offense. Grade: C-
Pac-12: Of the 32 non-conference games, 12 were against teams from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. The conference was winless in those matchups — yep, 0-for-12 — which factors into our assessment. So, too, does the 9-4 mark against Group of Six teams. The latter means more than the former, in our view, because it’s an apples-to-apples comparison with the leagues competing with the Pac-12 for an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff. Another important component: Boise State emerged from September as the only Group of Six team in the AP poll (No. 22) and the frontrunner for the CFP bid. Grade: B+
Realistically, it could not have gone much better — and could easily have been a lot worse.
Is NBC happy to have USC in the 4:30 p.m. (Pacific) broadcast window three weeks in a row? Did they think it could/would happen when they selected USC at Penn State earlier this year? — @draywilson29
NBC is happy whenever a broadcast draws at least five million viewers. The USC-Oregon game did just that, and the USC-Penn State duel on Oct. 10 should clear the bar, as well.
The middle matchup of the three, against Washington, probably won’t exceed four million, much less five million, which is viewed within the industry as an important benchmark.
When assessing network satisfaction, it’s vital to understand how each of the Big Ten’s partners lands on a specific game in a given week.
Fox, which owns the conference’s media rights through its majority stake in the Big Ten Network, has the top-three selections in the annual draft, after which it essentially rotates with NBC and CBS.
Ohio State-Michigan is always the No. 1 selection — it’s the most valuable regular-season game in the sport — and the network grabbed Indiana-Ohio State and Oklahoma-Michigan with the other top picks.
Although we haven’t confirmed NBC’s strategy, we assume the network had the first selection for Oct. 10 and chose USC-Penn State. (It’s the White-Out game in Happy Valley, just as Oregon-Penn State was last year.)
Exactly how the draft unfolded for Sept. 26 (USC-Oregon) and Oct. 3 (USC-Washington) is largely immaterial. It’s an NBC-USC 4:30 p.m. trifecta, for better or worse. (Mostly, it’s for the better.)
However, a larger issue is at play: NBC and CBS are not getting the return on investment they expected when they committed approximately $300 million (each) per year for Big Ten media rights in the summer of 2022, after USC and UCLA joined the conference.
That’s particularly true of NBC, which has aired just two Big Ten games since the start of last season that generated at least five million viewers, according to audience figures published by SportsMediaWatch.com: Oregon-Penn State last year (8.5 million) and USC-Oregon last weekend (5.0 million).
(CBS has aired five games with at least five million viewers in that timeframe.)
Yes, the TV draft is structured to give Fox the inventory advantage, but the combination of a top-heavy, middle-light conference race and the Big Ten’s subpar non-conference schedule have left NBC with inventory options that don’t come close to matching expectations.
If the trend continues, it could impact the network’s decisions when it comes time to bid on the Big Ten’s media rights in a few years.
Can you make the case that teams shouldn’t pay more than 20 percent of their NIL cash to the quarterback? Washington seemingly dedicated too much to Demond Williams Jr. and would have been much better off with a $1 million quarterback and another $3 million to shore up weaker positions. — @Smittytheclown
The topic itself is worthy of discussion and debate, but we aren’t sure Washington is the best example. Based on Hotline reporting from January, when Williams flirted with the transfer portal, he is expected to earn about $4 million this season.
That would constitute 20 percent of the NIL outlay if the total roster compensation was $20 million, but it’s not. The Huskies are believed to have spent in excess of $25 million and perhaps $30 million for this year. (The specific amount is a state secret for every school.)
If we estimate $27.5 million, then Williams’ compensation accounts for 14.5 percent of the total.
Given what has transpired on Montlake thus far, it’s easy to second guess. But an elite quarterback can make all the difference — the Mississippi schools are two prime examples — and coach Jedd Fisch thought he had an elite quarterback.
That could still prove the case, by the way. It’s a tad early to conclude Williams wasn’t worth the investment.
But yes, the Huskies have holes on the line of scrimmage and at the skill positions — that has been clear each week, especially in the loss to Minnesota.
The problem: To thrive in the Big Ten, you need an elite quarterback and first-rate talent elsewhere, which is why Ohio State and Oregon are spending more than $40 million and USC is close to that number.
The mass of teams in UW’s range ($25 million to $30 million, approximately) require expert evaluation and development in order to craft championship rosters.
Indiana did that last year, but we suspect the Hoosiers were an anomaly.
Unless the finances change dramatically, the Huskies will struggle to reach the conference’s top tier. Which is exactly what the Hotline has been saying all along.
UW fans just didn’t want to listen.
Curious if you have a sense of what USA Network would pay for the right expansion school for the Pac-12. If only one school is needed, what are your top candidates and what TV value would that school need to generate to cover its exit fee? — @SierraNevadaSam
The Pac-12’s media rights agreements are less accessible than the nuclear codes, so everything is speculation to a certain degree. But based on numerous conversations with industry and conference sources, the Hotline does not believe there is a trove of cash waiting for a ninth football school.
USA Network, CBS, The CW — none of the Pac-12’s media partners would offer enough cash to support a full share for any new member. In fact, we don’t believe there is anything available in the expansion pot.
Which means expansion would require the nine current schools to accept smaller slices of the revenue pie. (Remember, Gonzaga is a full-share member.) Or the new school would have to join for free.
That raises the bar substantially on the realignment front, to the point that the Hotline fully expects the Pac-12 to hold its current shape through the decade.
As deputy commissioner Rick Hart said a few months ago: “You don’t solve operational problems through membership,” meaning expansion is not the way to fix the seven-game, round-robin football schedule. (Ideally, the Pac-12 would have nine football schools and an eight-game schedule.)
What if something unexpected forces the Pac-12 back to the expansion market?
There isn’t a wild card, a mystery school. The options would be all the Mountain West and American conference schools that have been linked to the Pac-12 in the past few years, from UNLV and New Mexico to Tulane and Memphis.
If we knew Jason Eck would coach the Lobos through the 2020s, they would be at the top of our list.
The Hotline has mentioned several times how the SEC and Big Ten are setting themselves up to implement a self-governing model in the future. If that happens, how are they going to police schools in their conference and outside their conference from player tampering? — @jimmy0726
That is the $1 billion question: How would the conferences create and, more importantly, enforce their own rules?
It has become abundantly clear in recent months that the Big Ten and SEC are prepared to implement Plan B (as in, breakaway).
If the Protect College Sports Act doesn’t become law — it will have a difficult road in the House of Representatives — the most powerful conferences in college sports are expected to create their own rules for matters involving eligibility, transfers, roster compensation and, presumably, tampering.
(The ACC and Big 12 could follow that path, as well.)
Let’s suspend reality for a minute and imagine a situation in which LSU tampers with Mississippi’s players. How would the SEC respond? Could it penalize the Tigers? And if so, how would they react?
In theory, yes. If all the schools agree to rules in advance, the conference seemingly would have the clout to levy sanctions and withstand any legal challenges that result from the penalties.
That’s the reason the SEC’s successful opposition to LSU attempting to roster ex-NFL players and the Big 12’s position against Texas Tech playing Brendan Sorsby were important at the 40,000-foot level.
The conferences need legal precedent to set a foundation for self-governance. And in both cases, they got it.
Undoubtedly, it was an awful start for Oregon (3-1). But most Las Vegas power rating systems think the Ducks will finish 10-2 with a loss to Ohio State. Wouldn’t that land them into their preferred playoff spot, as a first-round host? — Will D
You are correct about the preference: The sweet spot for the College Football Playoff seeding is the No. 5-to-8 range, because those teams host opening-round games and don’t have to worry about a month-long break creating excessive rust.
And within that seed range, No. 5 is the sweetest, as Oregon experienced last year, because the opponent is likely to be the Group of Six representative. (The Ducks hammered James Madison.)
We agree that 10-2 is a distinct possibility, thanks in large part to the Big Ten’s soft middle.
With or without Dante Moore, the Ducks should roll through October and carry a 7-1 record into Columbus.
With 10 wins, they would be in position to host an opening-round game, although Oklahoma State’s performance in the Big 12 will impact the calculation: Oregon needs the Cowboys to keep winning.
That said, Boise State is the frontrunner for the Group of Six bid, and we suspect Oregon would prefer to face anyone else.
The Broncos would stroll into Autzen Stadium in the middle of December expecting to win, with good reason.
To what extent are the Washington Huskies still suffering from so many good players leaving for Alabama? At some time, maybe now or soon, those can’t be excuses any longer. — Steve Q
The attrition to Alabama in the winter of 2024, when coach Kalen DeBoer departed for Tuscaloosa, ceased being an explanation or excuse last year, in our view.
In the post-modern era, teams turn over entire rosters in a single offseason. The window required for building winning rosters used to be three or four years. Now, it’s two, maximum.
Fisch has the players he wanted at every position after taking 54 transfers and high school recruits over the past two offseasons. This is his defense, his quarterback (Demond Williams), his skill players and, perhaps most importantly, his offensive line.
There are plenty of reasons for UW’s less-than-stellar showing in September. But losing players to Alabama 30-something months ago is not one of them.
We really have a train wreck on Montezuma Mesa. Let’s just acknowledge it was a big mistake for San Diego State to hire Sean Lewis and start looking for a new head coach. I’m watching the same games you are. Is it time to bench Jayden Denegal? — Dave R
The frustration is understandable. Expectations were high for 2026 after San Diego State won nine games last year. And thus far, the Aztecs have been an unmitigated flop.
Denegal has not played well. By any measure, he has not shown marked year-over-year improvement. Draiden Trudeau is an option, for sure, although switching to a freshman quarterback in the middle of the season is a high-risk move
Combine poor quarterback play with a difficult schedule and bad luck everywhere else (e.g., a spate of injuries and the mumps outbreak), and the situation looks bleak.
Bleak enough for a coaching change? Not in our view.
Lewis must improve his job performance. He also needs more NIL money and vastly better fortune.
If the Aztecs slog through the 2027 season, the administration should consider a change. But not until then. It’s far too disruptive, and costly.
Last year proved he could win at SDSU. Our hunch: It wasn’t an outlier.
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