Sports360AZ
By Jordan Spurgeon & Eliav Gabay
Phoenix, Arizona – With 24 games remaining in the 2024 MLB season, the Arizona Diamondbacks are gearing up for the postseason.
As things stand, the snakes sit atop the NL Wild Card standings along with the San Diego Padres. Both squads are three games up on the Atlanta Braves and four on the New York Mets.
When this seven game homestand began, there was hope for the Diamondbacks to take the NL West division lead from the Dodgers. However, a 2-5 stand against the Mets (1-2) and Dodgers (1-3), has changed that outlook. Arizona currently sits six games behind Los Angeles.
“This game is all about execution,” Torey Lovullo said after Monday’s 11-6 loss to the Dodgers. “I will make sure I address the things that need to be addressed.”
Arizona will need to play well down the stretch to secure a playoff spot. Going 12-12 may not be enough to hold on.
So here are some thoughts from Jordan Spurgeon and Eliav Gabay as Arizona looks to stay in the playoff race and ultimately, make a deep run into October.
What should the pitching rotation look like? – Jordan
This was the issue last year, when the Diamondbacks only used three starters + different openers the entire postseason en route to a World Series. After adding Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery, Mike Hazen probably assumed that wouldn’t even be a possibility this year.
Now, with three weeks left, do we know who the best three or four starting pitchers are for Arizona?
Brandon Pfaadt is the only starting pitcher who’s made enough starts this season to qualify among league stats. He owns a 4.32 ERA through 160.1 innings pitched in 27 starts.
Throughout the last month, Ryne Nelson has been the best pitcher for Arizona. In fact, if you go back further he’s been the most consistent among the staff.
In Nelson’s last 15 starts he boasts a 3.57 ERA in 88.1 innings pitched.
Both Nelson and Pfaadt deserve spots in the playoff rotation. In a three-game Wild Card series, that leaves one spot open.
So how does Torey utilize Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez?
Gallen missed a month this season, and in his last 15 starts, he’s been inconsistent. A 4.44 ERA in that frame along with a 1.43 WHIP (walk + hits per inning pitched) is an alarming trend.
Yes he’s the ace of the staff, but if his next three or four starts aren’t clean, can Torey Lovullo trust him to pitch in Game 1 of a Wild Card series? Emotions aside, take some time to think on that…
Then what happens with Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez? Both missed large chunks of the season and as Lovullo mentions, are working back into their game shape still.
“They both have their strengths and that’s a feel for the zone,” Lovullo said ahead of Monday’s game against the Dodgers. “I think the more you pitch the more you find that.”
Rodriguez pitched Monday against Los Angeles. His day finished after four innings with three earned runs on seven hits, two walks, and one strikeout.
Kelly gave up four earned runs in 5.1 innings against L.A. on Saturday.
Both have three or four starts to find their rhythm.
“Kelly and E-Rod are kind of on their own islands right now,” Lovullo said.
Against the Dodgers this weekend. the starting pitching (Gallen, Kelly, Pfaadt and Rodriguez) combined for 20 innings, 31 hits, 15 earned runs, 19 strikeouts (10 by Pfaadt) and seven walks. That won’t cut it in the playoffs.
Jordan Montgomery is out of the rotation. While he was not happy about the move to the bullpen, he’s actually pitching well in relief. He should make the playoff roster in that role as a $25 million bullpen arm.
So… who are the top three for a Wild Card Series? Will Lovullo go with four or five starters if Arizona advances further?
“I believe in our staff,” Lovullo said. “I trust our guys to perform when it matters most.”
If I were in a position to pick, here’s how I would do it. No emotions attached.
Wild Card Game 1 – Ryne Nelson (He’s earned it).
Wild Card Game 2 – Zac Gallen (Need him to step up).
Wild Card Game 3 – Brandon Pfaadt (Trust him the most in a win-or-go-home situation).
*Rodriguez and Kelly could both be bullpen options if any starter needs to be pulled early.
The bonus of having Rodriguez and Kelly in the bullpen is the option to keep a very short leash on all starters. The downside is losing a bench bat or a key bullpen arm not named AJ Puk, Justin Martinez, Ryan Thompson, or Kevin Ginkel. Also, do the D-backs need three long relief options? Someone could draw the short side of the stick and be left off the Wild Card roster.
Now, IF this team reaches the NLDS, here’s how I would set up the rotation. It would be the same for a potential NLCS and/or World Series appearance. Gallen and Pfaadt would be in line for games six and seven.
NLDS Game 1 – Ryne Nelson
NLDS Game 2 – Zac Gallen
NLDS Game 3 – Brandon Pfaadt
NLDS Game 4 – Merrill Kelly or Eduardo Rodrigez (depends on team matchup).
NLDS Game 5 – Ryne Nelson + Kelly or Rodriguez or Montgomery in early relief.
I understand some of these rotation ideas are out of the box, but Lovullo and the front office have proven they will do what they must in October to win games. Even if it means some egos have to get hurt for the betterment of the team…
Don’t Sleep On… – Eliav
As the postseason creeps closer, here are a few guys to keep an eye on that could end up having pivotal roles when it matters most.
1B Josh Bell:
A trade that became necessary after Christian Walker went down with a left oblique strain, Bell is batting .275 with a .351 OBP including 14 hits in the last 15 games.
His defense has been all there as well, with 191 putouts in 27 games and no errors thus far.
As Walker prepares to return, Bell is a solid option off the pine for the playoffs, so don’t be surprised if he makes an impact.
C Adrian Del Castillo:
From a vet to a young gun we go as Del Castillo has made the most of his time in the bigs while Gabi Moreno works his way back from a left abductor/groin strain.
Del Castillo is a demon on the base paths too with 18 stolen bases in 17 games.
Slugging .372 over his last 15, including a couple bombs, the kid’s got some pop.
Pop that Diamondbacks fans will want a taste of when Moreno returns, perhaps slotting Del Castillo as the DH or giving him spot starts depending on matchups.
OF Alek Thomas:
Thomas is also dealing with an oblique strain but this section requires no stats.
D-backs fans know what Thomas is capable of when the pressure’s on (e.g.: 2023 NLCS, Game 4) on both sides of the ball.
So yes, he’s injury prone, but he’s also clutch – and that carries serious weight in October.
History says the best offenses don’t always win – Jordan
Of the last 10 teams to lead MLB in runs scored, only three won the World Series.
The 2020 Dodgers did in the shortened 60 game 2020 season. The 2018 Boston Red Sox did, while winning 108 games. The 2017 Houston Astros did too (with the aid of *trash cans*).
The Diamondbacks are way ahead of the New York Yankees for MLB’s lead in that category. Barring the coldest stretch ever in the final 24 games, the snakes will finish in first place in runs scored. And if they don’t, well let’s just say there won’t be any playoff games to think about.
Within the next 10 days, Arizona should get Christian Walker, Gabi Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Ketel Marte back. So the offense will be loaded when the playoffs begin. But, can this team be expected to score 5+ runs per game on the biggest stage? History says no, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
The good news is that “The Rally-backs” are a real thing. Early in the season they struggled mightily when trailing by two or more runs. Since the All-Star break, Arizona has flipped that script. This team goes down swinging until the very end, so no game is ever over until after the final pitch.
Remaining Strength of Schedule vs other Wild Card teams – Eliav
Last but not least, we got the remaining strength of schedule, and the Snakes have a relatively tough road to the finish line.
Arizona is neck-and-neck with San Diego for the top Wild Card spot and the Padres just got Fernando Tatis Jr back from IL.
Right behind them are the Braves, Mets and Cubs.
Out of this group, New York has the most grueling remaining schedule, facing the Phillies seven times, the Brewers and the Braves three times each.
The Diamondbacks sit at sixth overall hardest remaining schedule as they’ll see the Brewers seven times, the Padres and Astros for three matchups a piece.
Meanwhile, Chicago’s schedule is 19th and Atlanta’s is even easier at 24th, per Tankathon.com.
At the end of the day, though, the Diamondbacks’ destiny is in their own hands…question is, what are they gonna do with it?
