Jordan Spurgeon
It’s the final weekend of the MLB season. The Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) are hosting the San Diego Padres (91-68) for a three game set.
There are many scenarios for Arizona to make the postseason. With Hurricane Helene forcing the New York Mets (87-70) and Atlanta Braves (86-71) to play a doubleheader on Monday, things get tricky.
New York plays Milwaukee this weekend. The Brewers are locked into the third divisional spot and have nothing to play for. Atlanta hosts Kansas City, who is fighting for a Wild Card spot in the American League.
As far as tiebreakers go: Both New York and Atlanta hold tiebreakers over Arizona. So if both of those teams end the year with the same record as Arizona, they advance while the snakes head home for the year. San Diego and Arizona are 5-5 this year, so the winner of the series owns the tiebreaker (more on that later).
San Diego needs just one win against Arizona to clinch the top Wild Card spot.
So, let’s break down each scenario for Arizona ahead of a 6:40 first pitch Friday night against San Diego.
Win 3, celebrate with champagne
This one is self explanatory. Arizona controls its destiny. A sweep over the Padres means a Wild Card spot is guaranteed and a clubhouse celebration happens for a 91 win team.
Three wins would also give the Diamondbacks the same record as the Padres, meaning they would have a shot at the top Wild Card spot and the right to host three games.
Arizona would clinch the second Wild Card spot if the Mets finish 4-1 or 5-0, giving New York the top spot and Arizona a ticket to the Big Apple.
Win 2, that could do
The Diamondbacks taking two of three against the Padres puts them at 90 wins. If either the Mets or Braves fail to reach 90 wins, Arizona advances. If both finish at 90, Arizona is on the outside looking in.
Four combined losses in the final 10 games played would mean that at least one of those teams would miss the playoffs. Since these teams are scheduled to play a doubleheader on Monday, that’s two losses already.
So, if both New York and Atlanta drop two-of-three this weekend and the Diamondbacks win 2, the champagne will be flowing inside Chase Field.
If either New York or Atlanta is swept this weekend, that’ll also lock up a spot for Arizona.
If there’s only one loss between New York and Atlanta this weekend, then Arizona would miss out on a ticket to the postseason.
Win 1, hold on
89 wins likely won’t cut it for Arizona. In order for this team to clinch in this scenario, the Mets would have to finish 1-4 or 0-5, or the Braves would need to go 2-3 or worse.
If the Braves were to get swept, Arizona could still celebrate on Sunday. Otherwise, the doubleheader on Monday would still hold weight.
Win 0, no bueno
A sweep to San Diego would have Arizona in the worst position possible. At 88 wins, the D-Backs would need New York to finish 0-5 or Atlanta to finish 1-4. That means the doubleheader would hold all the cards.
Worst case scenario
If Arizona sits at 90 wins plus New York and Atlanta sit at 89 after Sunday, OR if Arizona sits at 89 wins and New York and Atlanta sit at 88 wins, problems arise. Ditto for 88 wins and 87 for both New York and Atlanta.
In that scenario the winner of game one of Monday’s doubleheader would clinch, which means they would likely rest starters in game 2 to prepare for the Wild Card series starting Tuesday. A split on Monday would knock Arizona out.
The pitching match up for Friday night at Chase Field is Merrill Kelly versus Yu Darvish. Saturday and Sunday are TBD.
