Heisman Watch: Penix loses ground and Nix holds steady while Williams’ candidacy collapses

Welcome to our weekly look at the Pac-12’s leading Heisman Trophy candidates via an assessment of the top players in the conference. Consider this one Heisman voter’s view of the landscape. The rankings are based on individual performance, value to the team and quality of competition. And yes, we consider defensive players.

Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. became the latest victim of a time-tested reality of the Heisman Trophy race: Weeks of progress can vanish in three arduous hours.

Penix finally overtook USC quarterback Caleb Williams as the betting frontrunner last week, only to be overtaken himself this week following a poor showing in UW’s surprisingly narrow victory over Arizona State.

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who threw four touchdowns in the Wolverines’ 49-0 victory over Michigan State, is the new leader based on odds released Monday by BetMGM.

McCarthy is +240 to win the award, meaning a $100 bet would pay $240. (The implied probability of a +240 bet is 29.4 percent.)

Penix is the No. 2 betting favorite at +300, followed by LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels at +375.

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is on the second tier of candidates at +2000.

The numbers will shift down the stretch. It only takes one subpar game for the frontrunners to lose precious ground.

1. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Last week: 1
Key stats: 368 yards per game, 70.8% completions, 10 yards per attempt
Comment: Penix was clearly injured at the end of the Oregon game and did not look like himself against Arizona State. Connection or coincidence? UW coaches indicated this week that he was “under the weather.” We won’t presume injury over illness, but it’s worth monitoring.

2. Oregon QB Bo Nix
Last week: 2
Key stats: 78.4% completions, 180.3 passer rating, 1 interception
Comment: Nix continues to produce victories and efficiency in equal amounts and, unlike Penix, he doesn’t have the scrutiny that comes with being a frontrunner. Put another way: Nix is perfectly positioned to make a November charge from off the pace.

3. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
Last week: 4
Key stats: 345.7 yards per game, 72.3% completions, 21 touchdowns
Comment: Sanders’ status in the broader Heisman race hasn’t changed in recent weeks and probably won’t: His road to New York City for the ceremony is long and complicated. But within the conference, Sanders’ position has benefitted from USC’s struggles.

4. USC QB Caleb Williams
Last week: 3
Key stats: 70% completions, 179.4 passer rating, 23 touchdowns
Comment: Williams remains a phenomenal NFL prospect whose floundering candidacy has been undermined by his own standard of excellence — as the reigning winner, he’s judged against his 2022 performance — and USC’s flaws on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

5. Washington WR Rome Odunze
Last week: 5
Key stats: 117 yards per game, 18.2 yards per catch
Comment: Odunze had a relatively quiet week (five catches for 82 yards) as UW’s offense struggled for the first time this season. But that’s life for receivers in the Heisman race: They are heavily dependent on others — specifically, the quarterback and offensive line — for success.

6. Utah DE Jonah Elliss
Last week: 6
Key stats: 2 tackles-for-loss per game, 1.4 sacks per game
Comment: Only one player has been named Pac-12 Defensive Lineman of the Week twice this season. We expect Elliss to claim the honor for a third time, and perhaps a fourth.

7. Arizona WR Jacob Cowing
Last week: 8
Key stats: 7.7 catches per game, 8 touchdowns
Comment: The real surprise isn’t that Arizona has a player worthy of inclusion. It’s that we considered more than one.

8. Oregon WR Troy Franklin
Last week: Not ranked
Key stats: 17.5 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns
Comment: Meet Nix’s favorite target and one of the toughest matchups in the conference. Franklin’s touchdown total is tied (with Cowing and others) for fourth in the Power Five.

Also considered (alphabetically): Arizona State WR Elijhah Badger, Oregon DL Brandon Dorlus, Arizona QB Noah Fifita, Oregon State OL Joshua Gray, Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter, UCLA Edge Laiatu Latu, Arizona LB Jacob Manu, Oregon State TB Damien Martinez, Cal TB Jaydn Ott and Washington State QB Cam Ward

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