College Football Playoff projections: The Washington State-Boise State duel has far-reaching consequences

Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team CFP race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.

Thousands of miles from the SEC’s prime-time showcase, two teams outside the power conference space will tangle in a nighttime affair in the Snake River Plain.

In some ways, the Washington State-Boise State matchup carries greater College Football playoff implications than the Alabama-Georgia collision.

The loser in Tuscaloosa won’t be eliminated from the CFP race; nor will the outcome have a material impact on the number of bids the SEC ultimately gobbles.

But the result in Boise could impact every conference in major college football.

Boise State is a top contender for the Group of Five’s automatic bid to the CFP. A victory would strengthen the Broncos’ case in the event of a resume showdown against the best team in the American, MAC, Sun Belt or Conference USA.

Put another way: James Madison, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Liberty, Memphis and a slew of other teams want Boise State to lose.

Meanwhile, Washington State is lurking as a potential CFP party crasher.

The Cougars cannot earn an automatic berth because of the Pac-12’s depleted status but are eligible for an at-large bid in the same manner as Notre Dame.

Given the mediocre schedule, which is heavy on Mountain West opponents, Washington State (4-0) likely needs a perfect season to make the cut for an at-large bid.

So why all the focus on this week? Because Boise State is the best team the Cougars will face the rest of the season, with the possible exception of their late-November trip to Oregon State.

(Wouldn’t that be something: The Beavers trying to prevent WSU from securing a playoff bid that would do wonders for the Pac-12.)

With a victory Saturday, the Cougars become a potential threat to steal an at-large bid away from the Power Four.

And that, folks, would be quite the plot twist.

To the projections …

Automatic bids

The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes. The best team from the Group of Five will be seeded according to its ranking.

No. 1 Georgia (SEC): This time next week, we might have Texas as the top seed. (You could make a strong case for the Longhorns in this spot right now.)

No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten): If Michigan is the best team in the Big Ten whose name doesn’t start with the letter O, the conference is not the juggernaut we expected.

No. 3 Utah (Big 12): The result in Stillwater said as much about the winner as the loser, which is why you won’t see the home team listed below in the at-large section.

No. 4 Miami (ACC): We watched quarterback Cam Ward experience too many multi-game slumps during his Washington State career to believe he’ll avoid a recurrence with the Hurricanes.

No. 12 Boise State (Group of Five): With Memphis losing to Navy and Northern Illinois falling to Buffalo, the Mountain West gained vital ground relative to its G5 competition.

At-large qualifiers

The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.

ACC: Clemson. The past two wins have been reasonably impressive, but what the Tigers really need is for Georgia to blast through the SEC to make their Week 1 loss to the Dawgs more palatable.

Big 12: None. We didn’t consider Oklahoma State but gave brief thought to Iowa State, which needs Iowa to show well in the Big Ten.

Big Ten: Oregon and Penn State. Starting to wonder if the top of the Big Ten is narrower than expected and the middle of the conference is wider than anyone could have possibly conceived.

SEC: Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi. What if the Volunteers are not only better than Alabama but also Georgia and Texas?

Bubble teams

Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.

ACC: Louisville. To be clear, the Cardinals are on the far outside of the bubble. Urban planners would use the term exurb to describe their location.

Big 12: Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Not sure Kansas State can recover from the wipeout in Provo, leaving the Big 12 with a dwindling number of at-large possibilities.

Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and USC. Our CFP bubble bingo card did not include Illinois, and it certainly didn’t include Indiana. But here we are.

SEC: LSU and Missouri. Only reason the SEC has been reduced to two bubble teams is the large number — five — of projected playoff participants.

Independent: Notre Dame. Northern Illinois’ loss did the Irish no favors. They must win out to have a chance to make the at-large field.

Projected matchups

The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)

No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Mississippi. The committee won’t adjust pairings to avoid regular-season rematches — an approach we expect to be re-evaluated before the next version of the CFP begins in 2026. Winner plays No. 1 Georgia

No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 10 Penn State. This would be the biggest college football event to take place in the Pacific Northwest, ever. (And that would be the case if the region’s first CFP game was held in Seattle, Pullman or Corvallis.) Winner plays No. 2 Ohio State

No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Clemson. Would be closer than the Clemson-Georgia season opener, but not by much. The Vols are superb. Winner plays No. 3 Utah

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Boise State. Given that the No. 5 seed is likely to be the SEC runner-up, the CFP committee’s decision on the No. 3 and 4 seeds will be one of the biggest stories of the selection process. Winner plays No. 4 Miami

Looking ahead: Week 5

Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that figure to impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.

(All times Pacific)

Oklahoma State at Kansas State (9 a.m. on ESPN): Both teams are coming off losses in conference openers. The loser isn’t eliminated from the Big 12 race but will have a narrow path to the championship game.

Georgia at Alabama (4:30 p.m. on ABC): Only the third on-campus collision of these SEC titans in the past 15 years. Alabama won handily in Athens in 2015 and again in Tuscaloosa in 2020. The balance of power has shifted since then.

Illinois at Penn State (4:30 p.m. on NBC): Are the Illini a serious contender in the Big Ten? They don’t need a victory in State College to prove their status, but they must be competitive.

Washington State at Boise State (7 p.m. on FS1): In addition to the broader consequences set to unfold, we’re fascinated by the matchup of two of the nation’s most dynamic players, WSU quarterback John Mateer and Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty.

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