College Football Playoff projections: Notre Dame’s huge win (and the ripple effect), Iowa’s at-large path and USC on the bubble

Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the CFP race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.

The first full week of regular season play featured dozens of blowouts, a few close calls and one result of major consequence for the College Football Playoff selection process: Notre Dame’s 23-13 victory at Texas A&M.

Because of their Independent status, the Irish are not eligible for an automatic bid. Instead, they must earn one of the seven at-large berths.

At 11-1, the Irish are a lock for the CFP field. And they probably clear the bar at 10-2, as well. (Never underestimate the power of brand bias.)

The road win Saturday evening over the 20th-ranked Aggies improved their prospects substantially.

Notre Dame’s remaining schedule is manageable, if not downright soft, overflowing with the likes of Purdue Louisville, Stanford and Florida State.

The finale at USC will be difficult, for sure. But the Irish might be well positioned for the CFP by that point.

And if they gobble one of the at-large bids, only six remain for the non-champions of the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC.

We know which conferences will receive the benefit of the doubt from the selection committee when those precious bids are awarded, and which conferences will not.

What’s good for the Irish is bad for the ACC and Big 12.

To the projections …

Automatic bids

The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes regardless of their position in the committee rankings. The best team from the Group of Five will be seeded according to its ranking.

No. 1 Georgia (SEC): The Bulldogs will encounter resistance somewhere along their road to the national championship. Or maybe not.

No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten): Sure, the Buckeyes started slowly against Akron. But they looked fabulous compared to Oregon and Michigan.

No. 3 Utah (Big 12): Our preseason pick to win the conference played like the team to beat with quarterback Cam Rising back in the lineup after missing the 2023 season.

No. 4 Miami (ACC): The Hurricanes are the clear frontrunners at this early stage, partly because they played so well at Florida but largely because Clemson and Florida State have been awful.

No. 12: Boise State (Mountain West): Kudos to UNLV for an impressive win at Houston, and Memphis must be considered a contender for the Group of Five bid.

At-large qualifiers

The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.

ACC: None. Clemson removed itself from consideration (in resounding fashion). Florida State has done the same. Ditto Virginia Tech. What a mess.

Big 12: None. West Virginia’s lopsided home loss to Penn State was suboptimal news for the Big 12, especially given the dearth of marquee non-conference games for the top teams.

Big Ten: Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. That’s right, folks: Combine their mediocre schedule with an improved offense, and the Hawkeyes have 10-2 in their sights. The Nittany Lions were impressive in Morgantown, and the Ducks, despite the scare, should be just fine.

SEC: Alabama, Mississippi and Texas. Lots of chatter on social media about the mighty SEC going 1-3 in big games in Week 1. But from our vantage point, all the top teams are undefeated.

Independent: Notre Dame. The committee is supposed to consider strength-of-schedule in both the selection and seeding processes. But if the Irish win 10, they’re in. And we see them winning 10.

Bubble teams

ACC: None. We aren’t suggesting the ACC is locked into a permanent bubble-less existence. But at this point, nobody is close.

Big 12: Arizona, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Any of the three could end up winning the conference. Or claiming an at-large berth. Or falling off the bubble entirely. Parity can be a blessing and a curse.

Big Ten: Michigan and USC. We’ll learn if the Wolverines are CFP contenders or pretenders by how they perform this weekend against Texas. USC was impressive Sunday night but needs LSU to win high-level games in the SEC.

SEC: Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The Tigers have four hurdles on their path to the CFP, and their names are Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College and UMass. Yikes.

The matchups

The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals.

No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Alabama. Would feel like a Sugar Bowl showdown from a time gone by, except for the home crowd at Beaver Stadium. Winner plays No. 1 Georgia.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Mississippi. Only way the Irish can get to No. 7 (or higher) is with 11 wins and no bad losses. Winner plays No. 2 Ohio State.

No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Iowa. The teams don’t play during the regular season, although it’s worth noting that the committee won’t adjust seeds to avoid regular-season rematches. Winner plays No. 3 Utah

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Boise State. We aren’t assuming the loser of the SEC championship game gets the No. 5 seed … Just kidding. That’s exactly what we’re assuming. Winner plays No. 4 Miami.

Key games this week

(All times Pacific)

Texas at Michigan (9 a.m. on Fox): Had the playoff not expanded, the loser in Ann Arbor would be in serious trouble. The stakes aren’t quite as high under the 12-team format — and that hasn’t diminished the anticipation one iota.

Iowa State at Iowa (12:30 p.m. on CBS): Must-win situation for the Hawkeyes in their pursuit of an at-large bid but not for the Cyclones, who don’t have an equivalent of Ohio State standing in their path to the Big 12 title.

Tennessee at N.C. State (4:30 p.m. on ABC): The Vols probably can’t lose more than two games and have Oklahoma, Alabama and Georgia on the schedule. They best not lose in Raleigh.

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