CFP projections: Oregon, Georgia, SMU and Iowa State take top seeds after upset-filled championship weekend

Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team playoff race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.

The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings will be released Tuesday afternoon and should include several notable changes following losses by No. 2 Ohio State, No. 6 Miami and No. 12 Clemson.

Here are three issues to watch:

— Boise State vs. the Big 12.

The 11th-ranked Broncos were five spots above Arizona State, the top Big 12 team, in the CFP rankings last week. If replicated, that cushion seemingly indicates Boise State will remain ahead of the Big 12 champion (ASU or Iowa State) if they win the Mountain West championship on Friday night.

As such, the Broncos would be one of the four highest-ranked conference champions and receive an opening-round bye in the CFP.

— ACC vs. SEC.

Miami faded in the second half at Syracuse and suffered its second loss of the season, knocking the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game and into the pool of at-large candidates with a slew of three-loss SEC teams. Will they be ranked ahead of Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina on Tuesday?

Also, how much cushion will one-loss SMU have relative to the aforementioned SEC contingent? Because if the Mustangs lose to Clemson on Saturday, they, too, would enter the at-large fray. The most controversial issue of selection weekend could be how the committee judges a two-loss ACC runner-up against a three-loss SEC team.

— Ohio State’s plunge.

The Buckeyes (10-2) will fall from the No. 2 position after their loss to Michigan, but how far?

They beat both of the one-loss Big Ten teams, Indiana and Penn State. But the selection committee has not given much weight to head-to-head results, especially when there is a difference in the number of overall losses (see: Texas four spots above Georgia).

Ohio State’s landing spot will provide clarity on whether the Buckeyes could host an opening-round game.

To the projections …

Automatic bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes. The fifth conference winner will be seeded according to its ranking. (If outside the top 12, it will receive the No. 12 seed.)

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion). One thing that will become clear in this first edition of the expanded CFP: The No. 1 seed doesn’t carry the benefits you might expect because of the quarterfinals pairing with the No. 8 vs. 9 winner. The Ducks would be better off losing the Big Ten title game.

No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion). If Texas wins the SEC and Oregon loses to Penn State in the Big Ten game, the Longhorns could be the top overall seed (ahead of the Nittany Lions). Tough to see Georgia getting to No. 1, even with a decisive win over Texas.

No. 3 SMU (ACC champion). Something to ponder: If three-loss Clemson wins the ACC, could the No. 3 seed go to Boise State if the Broncos win the Mountain West? Unlikely, because Clemson is only one spot behind the Broncos and would have beaten a higher-ranked team in the conference championship, providing the fuel to leapfrog Boise State.

No. 4 Iowa State (Big 12 champion). We give Iowa State a slight edge over Arizona State, but the game is effectively a toss-up. Which is so on-brand for the parity-fueled Big 12.

No. 12 UNLV (Mountain West champion). The Rebels have been more impressive than Boise State recently and are the Hotline’s pick to win the Mountain West. If the Broncos claim the trophy, they could grab the No. 4 seed. That’s not an option for UNLV.

At-large qualifiers
The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.

ACC: None. Would the committee take two-loss SMU or three-loss Alabama? Our hunch: The SEC’s reputation would sway the decision. Clemson has no shot to make the field if the Tigers lose the ACC championship game.

Big 12: None. This has pretty much been the case for a month. The loser of the conference championship will be ranked too low for the at-large field.

Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State. The Hoosiers are probably safe despite having no wins over ranked opponents. Ohio State could end up playing on the road in the opening round as the No. 9 or 10 seed.

SEC: Alabama, Tennessee and Texas. The SEC’s three-loss teams are rooting for SMU to beat Clemson and keep the ACC to a one-bid league.

Independent: Notre Dame. We don’t buy the case for the Irish as the No. 5 seed despite their impressive play recently. That should go to the loser of the Big Ten or SEC championship game.

Bubble teams
Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.

ACC: Miami. The Hurricanes have no business making the field after their second loss (to unranked Syracuse). But they will be rooting for SMU, because a Clemson win would knock them to third in the ACC hierarchy.

Big 12: None. We could cite numerous examples of the committee’s low opinion of the Big 12, particularly given that Brigham Young, which didn’t qualify for the championship game, beat the ACC’s top team (SMU) on the road.

Big Ten: None. If Clemson wins the ACC, then Indiana’s position becomes vastly more precarious.

SEC: Mississippi and South Carolina. The Gamecocks lost to both Alabama and Ole Miss but arguably have a stronger overall resume. We think both teams are behind the Crimson Tide in the SEC pecking order.

Projected matchups
The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Tennessee. These spots could be flipped, with the Volunteers hosting. The 350 miles between Columbus and Knoxville could bring a significant difference in game-day weather. Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Indiana. The Hoosiers are likely locked into either the No. 10 or 11 seed — unless they miss the field completely. Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Alabama. The Nittany Lions would prefer any other option (Indiana, SMU, Miami) but could get stuck with one of the most talented teams in the country if they lose the Big Ten championship game. Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 UNLV. Whether the No. 12 seed is the Mountain West or Big 12 champion, the Longhorns would have a wide road into the semifinals as the No. 5 seed. Winner plays No. 4 Iowa State

Looking ahead: Championship weekend
Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that could impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.

(All times Pacific)

Mountain West championship: UNLV at Boise State (Friday at 5 p.m. on Fox). The Broncos won the regular-season matchup by five points in Las Vegas despite limited impact by tailback Ashton Jeanty. UNLV must deal with Boise State’s home-field advantage.

Big 12 championship: Iowa State vs. Arizona State (9 a.m. on ABC). In the first meeting between the teams (ever), the Cyclones possess an edge in experience at the two key spots: head coach and quarterback. (Of note: ASU president Michael Crow attended Iowa State.)

SEC championship: Georgia vs. Texas (1 p.m. on ABC). The Bulldogs dominated the first meeting with a 30-15 win in Austin as Texas struggled to protect its quarterbacks. A loss is unlikely to knock Georgia (10-2) out of the CFP. We expect the committee to avoid punishing the SEC and Big Ten championship game losers because of the precedent.

ACC championship: Clemson vs. SMU (5 p.m. on ABC). The Mustangs are one step from winning a Power Four conference after playing in the Group of Five last season. The teams did not meet during the regular season.

Big Ten championship: Penn State vs. Oregon (5 p.m. on CBS). First meeting since the Rose Bowl at the end of the 1994 season. Note that CBS has the game, not Fox.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline