Big Ten power rankings: Iowa jumps, Indiana slips and a dive into Oregon’s path (with or without Dante Moore)

The Big Ten football power rankings are published on the Hotline each Monday throughout the regular season. The placement of teams reflects both the latest results and season-long performance. (Call it an objectively subjective process.) For comparative purposes, we have included each team’s position in llast week’s rankings.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is expected to miss time as he recovers from a concussion sustained in the win over USC. Whether his absence lasts two weeks, four weeks, six or the remainder of the season is not known — at least publicly.

Ducks coach Dan Lanning issued a statement Sunday explaining that “Every concussion is different and we are going to move forward with an abundance of caution.” No timeline for a return was provided.

While Moore recovers, backup Dylan Raiola will operate the offense, just as he did, with superb poise and efficiency, in the 41-27 victory Saturday evening in the Coliseum.

The Ducks (3-1) are not better with Raiola, a former five-star recruit, than with Moore. But they don’t need to be. October looks vastly more manageable than September, based on four weeks of results posted by Oregon’s past and upcoming opponents.

It’s entirely possible that Boise State, Oklahoma State and USC are better than any of the teams lurking in the season’s middle month:

— Oregon has a week off, then hosts UCLA, which is undefeated under new coach Bob Chesney but also untested.

The Bruins’ four opponents thus far (Cal, San Diego State, Purdue and Maryland) are 2-10 against FBS teams. Our hunch is that for all the progress in Westwood, the Bruins are not ready for the personnel or environment they will encounter in Eugene.

— Then comes a visit from Nebraska, which has beaten a string of creampuffs, plus (including?) Michigan State, and will be taking a massive leap in competition in Autzen Stadium.

— Following the home dates with UCLA and Nebraska, the Ducks head to Illinois to face an opponent that lost to Duke, was blown out by Ohio State and just fired its defensive coordinator.

— Oregon concludes October with Northwestern, another of the Big Ten’s many fair-to-middlin’ outfits.

All of which is to say the Ducks will be heavily favored in all four October games.

In fact, TeamRankings.com, the gambling and analytics website, gives the Ducks a 78 percent chance to beat UCLA and an 88 percent chance (minimum) to defeat each of the other three teams.

The next major test for Oregon is the Nov. 7 trip to Ohio State. That’s six weeks away.

If Moore isn’t ready to return, Raiola, a two-year starter at Nebraska, will be well entrenched by then.

And if the Ducks lose in Columbus, their primary goal will remain well within reach (assuming they handle business in October).

Oregon can afford another loss without serious derailment of its College Football Playoff pursuit. The goal for all teams is a record no worse than 10-2 based on the unofficial, unspoken standard set by the selection committee.

The only three-loss team to make the playoff field in the past 12 years is Alabama, which was 10-3 last season and received the No. 9 seed. But the Crimson Tide’s third loss came in the SEC championship, to an opponent (Georgia) that it had already defeated in the regular season.

After Ohio State, the Ducks host Michigan, which can’t score, visit Michigan State, which can’t do anything, and welcome Washington, which has more problems than we can count at the moment.

It was a wild first month for the Ducks, with the stunning loss at Oklahoma State, loads of criticism and scrutiny, the uplifting victory at USC and the frightening injury to their quarterback.

But partly thanks to a favorable conference schedule, their path to the playoff remains wide open whether Moore or Raiola is running the offense.

To the power rankings …

(All times Pacific)

1. Ohio State (3-1/1-0)

Result: beat Illinois 42-19
Next up: at Iowa (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Comment: The Buckeyes have played 16 quarters thus far. In 15, they have scored 180 points and their opponents just 28. In the 16th, well, we all know what happened in Austin. (Last week: 1)

2. Oregon (3-1/1-0)

Result: won at USC 41-27
Next up: idle
Comment: Both Oregon and UCLA have two weeks to prepare for a showdown in Eugene that will determine the best team on the West Coast. Honestly, I cannot believe my fingers just typed that sentence. (Last week: 5)

3. Iowa (4-0/1-0)

Result: won at Michigan 20-19
Next up: vs. Ohio State (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Comment: The Hawkeyes covering 91 yards in less than two minutes for the winning touchdown in Ann Arbor was definitely not on our Big Ten bingo card for the 2026 season. (Last week: 6)

4. USC (4-1/1-1)

Result: lost to Oregon 41-27
Next up: vs. Washington (4:30 p.m. on NBC)
Comment: On the bright side: The Trojans played well enough against Oregon to beat Washington by two touchdowns. (Last week: 3)

5. Indiana (4-0/1-0)

Result: beat Northwestern 29-23
Next up: at Rutgers (5 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: We have seen scant evidence that the Hoosiers are a national championship contender. And it’s not like beating Rutgers will lend clarity to the situation. So the wait continues. (Last week: 2)

6. UCLA (4-0/2-0)

Result: won at Maryland 54-3
Next up: idle
Comment: Could UCLA coach Bob Chesney, who was Curt Cignetti’s successor at James Madison, follow Cignetti’s path into the playoff in his first season in the Big Ten? Don’t scoff. The Bruins’ schedule is essentially as soft in 2026 as Indiana’s was in 2024. (Last week: 7)

7. Michigan (3-1/0-1)

Result: lost to Iowa 20-19
Next up: at Minnesota (9 a.m. on Fox)
Comment: Saturday’s stunning finish in the Big House offers all the proof needed that the football gods exist, and they prefer cosmic justice. (Last week: 4)

8. Minnesota (3-1/1-0)

Result: won at Washington 27-24
Next up: vs Michigan (9 a.m. on Fox)
Comment: The Golden Gophers haven’t beaten Michigan in 12 years and have just two victories in the series in the past 40. This seems like a fine time for the math to change ever so slightly. (Last week: 12)

9. Wisconsin (3-1/1-0)

Result: won at Penn State 24-20
Next up: vs. Michigan State (9:30 a.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: Sometimes, schools retain coaches when they shouldn’t (see: Maryland). Occasionally, the faith is rewarded. Of course, it helps to devote more cash to roster construction, which the Badgers (finally) did for Luke Fickell. (Last week: 10)

10. Washington (3-1/0-1)

Result: lost to Minnesota 27-24
Next up: at USC (4:30 p.m. on NBC)
Comment: The central problem facing coach Jedd Fisch and his staff: UW has issues on both sides of the ball and across multiple position groups. There is no quick fix. It’s an all-systems salvage operation. (Last week: 8)

11. Penn State (3-1/0-1)

Result: lost to Wisconsin 24-20
Next up: at Northwestern (Friday at 5 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: How would a solid Big 12 team fare in the Big Ten? Given all the Iowa State transfers in Happy Valley with coach Matt Campbell, we are beginning to find out. (Last week: 9)

12. Nebraska (4-0/1-0)

Result: won at Michigan State 31-13
Next up: vs. Maryland (1 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Barring two major upsets, the Cornhuskers and Hoosiers will be undefeated when Indiana visits Lincoln in two weeks. (Last week: 11)

[related_articles location=”right” show_article_date=”false” article_type=”automatic-primary-tag”]

13. Northwestern (2-1/0-1)

Result: lost at Indiana 29-23
Next up: vs. Penn State (Friday at 5 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: It’s possible the Wildcats are vastly improved, to the point of being a solid middle-tier finisher. But we are not yet convinced, and won’t be even if they win this week. (Last week: 13)

14. Illinois (2-2/0-1)

Result: lost at Ohio State 42-19
Next up: vs. Purdue (1:15 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: The Illini parted ways with defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck on Sunday. That won’t end their pain. (Last week: 14)

15. Michigan State (2-2/0-1)

Result: lost to Nebraska 31-13
Next up: at Wisconsin (9:30 a.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: We see three winnable games on the schedule, maybe four. So Pat Fitzgerald’s bowl math isn’t impossible, yet. (Last week: 15)

16. Purdue (1-3/0-1)

Result: lost to Notre Dame 49-10
Next up: at Illinois (1:15 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: The Boilermakers have climbed out of the cellar simply by not being atrocious. (Last week: 17)

17. Rutgers (1-3/0-1)

Result: beat Howard 58-7
Next up: vs. Indiana (5 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: “Credit Rutgers for showing us how to attack USC’s defense” is not something Oregon coach Dan Lanning has said. But we can dream, right? (Last week: 18)

18. Maryland (2-2/0-1)

Result: lost to UCLA 54-3
Next up: at Nebraska (1 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: There’s a new frontrunner in the national race to be The First Coach Fired in 2026. And if Mike Locksley’s pole position comes as a surprise, you haven’t been paying attention. (Last week: 16)

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline