Jon Wilner
Has the window closed? Could the Big 12 reclaim its competitive superiority after losing a wave of talent to the NBA draft, including four of the top 10 selections?
Are enough schools equipped financially to compete with the deep-pocketed peers in the Big Ten and SEC?
Naturally, Brett Yormark remains extraordinarily bullish entering the 2026-27 season.
But the top of the conference looks a tick weaker than last year — Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas and BYU lost a truckload of impact players — while the bottom remains messy and uninspired.
The fate of the season could hinge on the middle tier, where a slew of first- and second-year coaches are toiling to generate the quality depth that was missing in prior years.
Here’s our look at the Big 12 race based on rosters as currently constructed. (The outcome of several eligibility lawsuits could alter the dynamics.)
1. Arizona
This selection was made with a morsel of trepidation. Sure, the frontcourt is loaded with Mo Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov, and there are blue-chippers on the wings (Caleb Holt and Cameron Holmes). But the Wildcats have a massive hole at the most important position without point guard Jaden Bradley, who made the operation work on both ends of the court and, especially, in the final seconds of close games. Is North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon the solution? If so, another conference title should follow.
2. Iowa State
Had sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic returned instead of following the money to Kentucky, the Cyclones might have been our pick to win the conference. But losing Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson is a potentially debilitating double-whammy. The Cyclones have the services of star guard Tamin Lipsey for the moment, but the NCAA’s appeal of a court ruling could change that — and force us to reconsider Iowa State’s forecast.
3. Houston
The fate of the Big 12 race could turn on which transfer point guard, the Cougars’ Dedan Thomas (from LSU) or Arizona’s Dixon, makes a greater impact. Much like the Wildcats, Houston lost a slew of perimeter playmakers, including Kingston Flemings. Veteran Joseph Tugler will lead the always-stout defense. But for the first time in years, we are left wondering if the Cougars and coach Kelvin Sampson have lost a bit of their mojo.
4. Texas Tech
This selection is effectively a compromise. If All-American JT Toppin returns from his knee injury early in the season and remains healthy, the Red Raiders could win the Big 12. (Don’t forget: Former star guard Darrion Williams has transferred back to Lubbock after a year at NC State.) But if Toppin’s return is delayed — or he doesn’t make the expected impact — Texas Tech could finish in the middle of the pack. What’s not in question: Coach Grant McCasland is one of the conference’s best.
5. West Virginia
Our top sleeper pick is based on second-year coach Ross Hodge, who exceeded expectations in his first season (21 wins), maintaining the momentum in Morgantown. The Mountaineers landed one of the most coveted big men in the portal, Mouhamed Sylla (Georgia Tech), along with several productive guards. The roster could be even stronger than we expect if the court system allows Brenen Lorient and Javan Buchanan to play.
6. Kansas
The Jayhawks have an entirely forgettable roster, with one exception: wing Tyran Stokes, the top recruit in the country and a potential No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. (The regression can’t possibly be related to the legalization of NIL and revenue sharing, can it?) If Stokes handles the pressure of carrying a blueblood and the grind of the Big 12, KU should remain relevant. Coach Bill Self’s legacy isn’t in jeopardy, but he could use an A-level season before eventually retiring.
7. TCU
The Horned Frogs would have been slotted in the top four had forward David Punch returned — he transferred to Texas — but their roster is nonetheless equipped to finish in the top half of the conference. Forwards Xavier Edmonds and Micah Robinson should form one of the top front-court tandems, while Brock Harding offers a steady hand at point guard. Don’t be surprised if TCU starts slowly and finishes strong. Jamie Dixon’s teams usually play best when it matters most.
8. BYU
How far will the Cougars fall without AJ Dybantsa? The return of point guard Robert Wright should prevent a complete implosion, but the key to another NCAA Tournament appearance is something coach Kevin Young’s team has failed to embrace: defense. The Cougars have ranked 82nd and 59th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) the past two years. If that doesn’t change, look out below.
9. Arizona State
The Arizona road trip became more difficult by an order of magnitude with Randy Bennett taking charge in Tempe. Granted, his transfers are moving up in competition from the West Coast Conference, but we saw more than enough from Paulius Murauskas (Saint Mary’s) and Emmanuel Innocenti (Gonzaga) to believe they will be effective players in the Big 12. It might take two or three years for the Sun Devils to move onto the upper tier. But they will be a tough out at home immediately under Bennett.
10. Cincinnati
We’re quite confident that first-year coach Jerrod Calhoun, fresh from a stellar stint at Utah State, will turn Cincinnati into a relevant program. In fact, this position could look downright silly by February. Calhoun’s impressive transfer haul includes forward Myles Colvin from Wake Forest but not, at this point, guard MJ Collins, an all-Mountain West pick last year who has not been declared eligible. Yet.
11. Oklahoma State
Coach Steve Lutz must mold a plethora of newcomers into a cohesive unit by the start of round-robin play. The ingredients are present, particularly with wings Jordan Burks (UCF) and Luka Bogavac, who left North Carolina following the coaching change in Chapel Hill. The Cowboys haven’t reached the NCAAs since 2021, with Cade Cunningham. This could be the season the drought ends.
12. Baylor
There’s a chance relevance could return to Waco in 2026-27 with the arrival of the Mingo brothers: Kayden, a transfer from Penn State, and Dylan, a five-star prospect who was originally headed to North Carolina. But we wonder about Scott Drew’s urgency level. He has a national title (2021) and nothing left to prove. Without a top-tier NIL budget, the Big 12 is an unforgiving place.
13. UCF
Coach Johnny Dawkins and the Knights seemingly have lost ground relative to peers like Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and West Virginia — a dynamic rooted in their NIL resources, or lack thereof. The NCAA Tournament appearance last spring is not likely to be repeated.
14. Kansas State
There’s a strong case for the Wildcats to be slotted even lower as first-year coach Casey Alexander rebuilds the roster through the transfer portal. Alexander won in the Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley and Missouri Valley and will succeed in the Big 12 eventually. But it will take at least two recruiting cycles and perhaps three.
15. Colorado
Losing guard Isaiah Johnson to Texas was merely the latest blow for Tad Boyle, a quality coach in a challenging spot. The Buffaloes purportedly want to increase resources for the program, but we need evidence that CU possesses a roster capable of competing for an upper-half finish. Through two years back in the Big 12, the Buffs are 10-28 in conference play.
16. Utah
Coach Alex Jensen’s first season could not have gone any worse, which means his second year must exceed the incredibly low expectations. Otherwise, fans and donors will quickly lose faith in the Utah alum’s ability to change the trajectory. (The first blow of the season came in August, when guard Noam Yaacov, a coveted international prospect from Israel, was ruled ineligible.) All that said, the football team is rolling!
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