Wilner on Pac-12 Bowls – WSU and Colorado churn on while ASU ticks up, Arizona and Utah fade fast

In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls that have been affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.

The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.

Please note: We also unveil our weekly CFP picks each Monday.

The stretch run of this unprecedented season has arrived in force with a slew of plot twists for the teams tied to Pac-12 bowl games.

Three teams with expectations for high-level success in their new conference, Utah, USC and Washington, are in danger of missing the postseason altogether.

Two teams that hoped to merely secure bowl bids, Colorado and Washington State, are alive in the College Football Playoff chase.

Arizona State has delivered an upside surprise.

Arizona is the epitome of a downside disappointment.

Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UCLA and Oregon State are exactly what we thought they would be, for better or worse.

Three of the 12 are bowl-eligible.

Nobody has been mathematically eliminated, yet.

One week from the release of the first CFP rankings, here are the Hotline’s latest projections for the Pac-12 bowls…

College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten champion)
Comment: Next up for the Ducks (8-0/5-0 Big Ten) is the school’s first trip to the Big House since 2007. Despite their well-chronicled struggles, the unranked Wolverines nonetheless present the toughest road test Oregon has faced this season by a factor of five.

Alamo Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: The ceiling is high thanks to the expanded playoff. So, too, is the Cougars’ margin for error — thanks to the mounting loss totals for teams that would otherwise be threats to dislodge WSU (7-1) from its natural place in the Pac-12 bowl pecking order.

Holiday Bowl
Team: Colorado
Comment: Our hunch is the Buffaloes (6-2/4-1 Big 12) need to run the table to qualify for the Big 12 championship game. Yes, they are only one game behind the leaders (Iowa State and BYU), but the head-to-head loss to Kansas State could complicate their tiebreaker status with other two-loss teams.

Las Vegas Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: The Trojans (4-4/2-4 Big Ten) could be a coveted commodity for the Las Vegas Bowl if they finish well or the best of bad options if they stagger through the stretch. Or they could be home for the holidays, which would turn the heat on Lincoln Riley to supernova levels.

Sun Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: Bowl officials are enamored of teams that exceed expectations because fans are energized to buy plane tickets and book hotel rooms. The surprising Sun Devils (5-2/2-2 Big 12) would be a textbook example and thus in relatively high demand.

LA Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: The Huskies (4-4/2-3 Big Ten) need two wins in their final four games to clinch a bowl bid. With USC and UCLA at home and Penn State and Oregon on the road, their math is straightforward enough to make academic prowess unnecessary.

Independence Bowl
Team: Oregon State
Comment: Another case of the November schedule creating easy math: The Beavers (4-4) must beat San Jose State at home and Air Force on the road. Otherwise, they would need to topple either Washington State or Boise State. Or both.

ESPN bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: We gave serious consideration to casting the Bears (4-4/0-4 ACC) down to the realm of the non-qualifiers. It’s difficult to imagine a team that can’t make field goals under pressure winning two more games in a group of four that are essentially toss-ups.

Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona
Comment: As ghastly as the recent results have been, the Wildcats (3-5/1-4 Big 12) might have laid the foundation for recovery with their inspired play in the fourth quarter against West Virginia. Or it was a giant misdirection and means absolutely nothing.

Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: Once the Cardinal (2-6/1-4 ACC) is mathematically eliminated from the postseason — good chance the moment comes at NC State on Saturday morning — coach Troy Taylor should base every decision on what’s best for 2025. Because if next season is like this season, his job security will start to become a thing.

Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: The Bruins (2-5/1-4 Big Ten) showed enough competence in their breakthrough at Rutgers to make us believe two or three more victories are possible, especially given the manageable schedule. But the postseason threshold (six wins) is extremely unlikely.

Non-qualifier
Team: Utah
Comment: The abominable loss at Houston turned the bowl math into advanced calculus: The Utes (4-4/1-4 Big 12) must beat UCF and at least one of Brigham Young, Colorado and Iowa State, which have a combined record of 21-2.

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