The College Football Playoff will once again feature 12 teams, but the conference commissioners overseeing the event couldn’t help but tinker with the details (once again).
The first change involves the treatment of conference champions.
If you’ll recall, the initial version of the 12-team format, in 2024, gave opening-round byes to the four highest-ranked champions. That was deemed insufficient when the Mountain West winner, Boise State, was given preference over the Big 12 champion, Arizona State.
Executives closed the loophole in 2025, assigning byes to the four highest-ranked teams regardless of conference finish. But controversy surfaced elsewhere in the selection process when Duke, the five-loss ACC champion, was not in the final Top 25 and therefore excluded from the field. As a result, the precious spot went to the Sun Belt’s James Madison, giving the Group of Six two bids, with Tulane from the American receiving the other.
Naturally, that loophole had to be closed, as well. The CFP couldn’t possibly allow two automatic qualifiers from the Group of Six. So this year, the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC champions are guaranteed berths whether they are ranked or not. The top team from the Group of Six retains an automatic bid, but the 70-school collection would have a second CFP representative only if that team is good enough to receive an at-large invitation.
And before we move on to our forecast, let’s note the second change — what the Hotline will refer to throughout the season as the Notre Dame carve-out: If the Irish are included in the top 12 of the committee’s final rankings (Dec. 6), they will automatically receive an at-large berth.
Let’s say the final rankings are as follows: No. 11 USC (Big Ten at-large candidate), No. 12 Notre Dame and No. 13 BYU (Big 12 champion).
In that scenario, the Trojans would be cooked. Notre Dame would receive the final at-large berth, with USC excluded to make room for the Big 12 winner.
What a sport.
Now, to the Hotline’s projections for the CFP:
Opening round
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State. We foresee the Broncos winning the rebuilt Pac-12 and earning an automatic bid as the highest-ranked team from the Group of Six. Their reward is a trip to Columbus to face the Buckeyes, who finish as the Big Ten runner-up after losing to Oregon in the conference championship. (Winner plays No. 4 Texas)
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Indiana. The Mustangs qualify for the second time in three years as an at-large entry, giving the ACC two bids. Meanwhile, Indiana cannot replicate its undefeated season. But the Hoosiers nonetheless clear the selection committee’s bar with ease. (Winner plays No. 3, Notre Dame) 
No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Oklahoma. BYU has been our pick to win the Big 12 throughout the offseason, and we’re sticking with the Cougars to make their first playoff appearance. (However, the Big 12 once again will be shut out of the at-large pool.) Oklahoma returns to theplayoffsf as one of four SE teamsC. (Winner plays No. 2 Georgia)
No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Miami. Lane Kiffin’s summer shenanigans make it easy to forget that he has a stellar roster in Baton Rouge that’s plenty capable of securing an at-large bid. Miami wins the ACC, but two confounding losses by Mario Cristobal’s team (shocking!) leave the Hurricanes without a bye into the quarterfinals. (Winner plays No. 1 Oregon)
Quarterfinals
Note: The CFP has removed historical ties between conferences and bowl games (e.g., the Big Ten and the Rose Bowl). Instead, the top three teams will be allowed to select their quarterfinal sites. And the No. 1 team is allowed to choose its semifinal location if it advances.
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 9 LSU (Rose Bowl). The Ducks lose once during the regular season, at Ohio State, but outlast the Buckeyes in the Big Ten championship to finish 12-1 and earn the No. 1 seed. Coach Dan Lanning manages the long December layoff more effectively this time than he did in 2024.
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (Peach Bowl). The Bulldogs win their third consecutive SEC championship and receive the No. 2 seed. They face the Sooners during the season, but keep in mind: For better or worse, the committee doesn’t consider rematches when ranking teams and setting the brackets.
No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Indiana (Cotton Bowl). With quarterback CJ Carr emerging as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner, the Irish roll through a fairly soft schedule and leave no doubt about their inclusion. They walloped Indiana in the quarterfinals two years ago. This edition is slightly more competitive.
No. 4 Texas vs. No. 5 Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl). The best roster Steve Sarkisian has coached in Austin handles everyone on the schedule except Georgia, loses the SEC championship and, through the at-large pool, is seeded No. 4. Our forecast calls for the Longhorns to beat Ohio State in the Week 2 showdown and then again four months later.
Semifinals
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas (Sugar Bowl). After blowout losses in the quarterfinals (2024) and semifinals (2025), the Ducks have their sights on reaching the championship game. They are competitive against the Longhorns but ultimately make no material progress toward the CFP. Texas quarterback Arch Manning and receiver Cam Coleman are too good.
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Notre Dame (Orange Bowl). Notre Dame handled Georgia in the 2024 quarterfinals and repeats the success, advancing to the championship for the second time in three years. His team bruised and battered, Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart bemoans the rugged SEC schedule, a not-so-subtle dig at Notre Dame’s pillowy-soft path into the CFP.
Championship
No. 3 Notre Dame over No. 4 Texas (in Las Vegas). A postseason that begins Dec. 18 concludes 38 days later. Powered by their stellar offensive line and significantly fresher than Texas, the Irish take charge in the third quarter and win their first national title since 1988. Notre Dame 31, Texas 23.
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Jon Wilner
Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP top-25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree.