Jon Wilner
Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. (Last week’s edition can be found here.)
The five minutes of self-reflection were, for Arizona State supporters, as alarming as they were candid.
“We lack discipline in terms of listening to some of the things I’m trying to get across to the team,” coach Bobby Hurley said last week after a home loss to West Virginia. “So my voice isn’t working with this group.”
But that wasn’t all.
“We failed; I’m failing,” he continued. “I can’t get through to the team. I don’t know what else I can say.”
And yet, he offered more tales from the crypt.
“We haven’t played well here in years,” Hurley said of Desert Financial Arena. “It’s a sterile environment. We don’t win here. We don’t give our fans any reason to show up with enthusiasm.”
The comments would be ominous coming from a coach with job security. But Hurley is not that. Hurley is a lame duck, with months remaining on a contract the university declined to extend last spring.
“The light and the tunnel — it’s hard to see a lot of light,” he added.
Three days later, the Sun Devils (11-9/2-5) responded with a victory over Cincinnati to avoid falling into the Big 12 cellar. And they might produce a few more wins by the time Hurley’s 11th season in Tempe concludes.
But it doesn’t matter. Short of a miraculous run to the Big 12 tournament title, they won’t make the NCAAs and the university will have more than enough justification to cut Hurley loose.
Heck, he might even beat ASU to the headlines and announce in advance that this will be his final season.
Anyone willing to call Desert Financial Arena home for 11 years and endure incalculable institutional indifference for much of his tenure would not hesitate to take charge of the narrative.
But the specifics are secondary. The second-winningest coach in school history has roughly six weeks of employment remaining.
Hurley will depart with three NCAA Tournament appearances. (And if not for COVID, he would have four — or twice as many as any Sun Devils coach in the past half century.)
Hurley’s tenure has been erratic, intoxicating, mystifying and infuriating. Sometimes, it was all those things at once. But when you overlay his results with the circumstances, with an arena that has not been materially altered since Elvis took the stage, there’s clear evidence that he exceeded the school’s historical standard for the vast majority of his 11 years.
Yes, ASU has (finally) committed to a massive arena upgrade. But for Hurley, it’s too late. The trajectory is set. The end is coming.
Given the rigorous schedule and the flawed roster and the degree to which the players have tuned Hurley out, the final weeks could be dreary.
That would be deeply unfortunate. Hurley has plowed every ounce into a difficult job. In some regards, he has given ASU more than it has given him in return.
He deserves better than to exit a tunnel that has no light.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Monday)
1. Arizona (21-0/8-0)
Results: beat Cincinnati 77-51 and West Virginia 88-53, won at BYU 86-83
NET ranking: No. 1
Comment: The meltdown-and-recovery in the final minutes in Provo was exactly what the Wildcats needed to prepare for a February gauntlet that features all the best teams in the Big 12 and will assuredly require precise execution under pressure. (Previous: 1)
2. Texas Tech (16-4/6-1)
Results: won at Baylor 92-73, beat Houston 90-86
NET ranking: No. 17
Comment: Unlike Arizona, for example, the Red Raiders are nowhere close to the level of defensive efficiency needed to win four games (or more) in the NCAAs. That said, they are awfully good on the other end of the court. (Previous: 3)
3. Houston (17-2/5-1)
Results: lost at Texas Tech 90-86
NET ranking: No. 11
Comment: If this isn’t the best freshman class in Big 12 history (Kingston Flemings, AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Koa Peat, Brayden Burries, etc.), it’s pretty damn close. (Previous: 2)
4. Iowa State (18-2/5-2)
Results: beat UCF 87-57, won at Oklahoma State 84-71
NET ranking: No. 7
Comment: The Cyclones are two games into the softest stretch of their conference schedule with Colorado, Kansas State, Baylor and TCU upcoming. Once Valentine’s Day arrives, everything changes. (Previous: 4)
5. BYU (17-3/5-2)
Results: beat Utah 91-78, lost to Arizona 86-83
NET ranking: No. 12
Comment: What went wrong against Arizona? First of all, the offense had no flow. Also, Dybantsa took too many shots. And Richie Saunders took too few. And Robert Wright never found his rhythm. On the bright side: There’s plenty of room for improvement. (Previous: 5)
6. Kansas (15-5/5-2)
Results: won at Colorado 75-69 and Kansas State 86-62
NET ranking: No. 15
Comment: It appears the Jayhawks found something in the loss at West Virginia: Since leaving Morgantown, they have won four in a row, including the road sweep of the Buffaloes and Wildcats. And the timing couldn’t be better. Next up: a visit from BYU, followed by a trip to Lubbock. (Previous: 7)
7. UCF (15-4/4-3)
Results: lost at Iowa State 87-57, won at Colorado 95-86
NET ranking: No. 39
Comment: We thought the collapse in Ames might have initiated a downturn that would extinguish any hope of reaching the NCAAs. But the Knights recovered nicely at 5,400 feet. (Previous: 6)
8. TCU (13-7/3-4)
Results: beat Oklahoma State 68-65, won at Baylor 97-90
NET ranking: No. 44
Comment: The Big 12 has a distinct top shelf and a muddled middle tier of five or six teams that includes both UCF and TCU. Whether they are the best of the bunch is not fully clear at this point. (Previous: 8)
9. Colorado (12-8/2-5)
Results: lost to Kansas 75-69 and UCF 95-86
NET ranking: No. 82
Comment: Bobby Hurley isn’t the Big 12’s only long-tenured coach with a decidedly downward trajectory. Tad Boyle is 5-22 in conference play over the past season-and-a-half. Tough to see him returning in 2026-27. (Previous: 9)
10. Baylor (11-8/1-6)
Results: lost to Texas Tech 92-73 and TCU 97-90
NET ranking: No. 59
Comment: Easy to spot the problem in Waco: The Bears have allowed 189 points in the past two games and an average of 87 over the past four. Their defense is offensive. (Previous: 10)
11. Oklahoma State (14-6/2-5)
Results: lost at TCU 68-65 and to Iowa State 84-71
NET ranking: No. 73
Comment: Despite their losing record in conference play, the Cowboys are running just one game behind our expectations. They will rue the home loss to Baylor (by 15 points) for the rest of the season. (Previous: 11)
12. West Virginia (13-7/4-3)
Results: won at Arizona State 75-63, lost at Arizona 88-53
NET ranking: No. 67
Comment: The department of doing-more-with-less just called, and it sang Ross Hodge’s praises. Big 12 Coach of the Year? It’s within the range of reasonable outcomes. (Previous: 12)
13. Arizona State (11-9/2-5)
Results: lost to West Virginia 75-63, beat Cincinnati 82-68
NET ranking: No. 87
Comment: Unless ASU and Arizona meet in the conference tournament, the duel Saturday in Tempe will mark Bobby Hurley’s final date with the Wildcats. He has lost 11 of the past 12. (Previous: 14)
14. Cincinnati (10-10/2-5)
Results: lost at Arizona 77-51 and Arizona State 82-68
NET ranking: No. 78
Comment: The Bearcats are 0-4 on the road in conference play and have only two reasonable opportunities to avoid 0-9: a mid-February trip to Kansas State and the season finale at TCU. (Previous: 13)
15. Kansas State (10-10/1-6)
Results: beat Utah 81-78, lost to Kansas 86-62
NET ranking: No. 89
Comment: We fully expect the Wildcats to get hot at some point in the stretch run, just as they did last season. But the duration and intensity of the upturn are very much unknown. (Previous: 15)
16. Utah (9-11/1-6)
Results: lost at Kansas State 81-78 and BYU 91-78
NET ranking: No. 115
Comment: Two extremely winnable games are up next with Oklahoma State and ASU paying visits, followed by a few more at the end of the month. In other words: The Utes should finish with four or five conference victories, which is much better than one. (Previous: 16)
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