Pac-12 survival: The expansion imperative following Colorado’s departure

The Pac-12 presidents spent a year mulling whether to expand the conference following the announced departures of the Los Angeles schools.

Now, they seemingly have no choice.

Colorado’s departure to the Big 12 next summer will leave the Pac-12 with nine teams for the 2024 football season. That’s more than enough to meet NCAA and College Football Playoff requirements but creates a plethora of challenges, with the football schedule near the top of the list.

A nine-game conference rotation doesn’t work with nine teams.

As much as we’d like to see Oregon and Washington play a home-and-home series each fall, there’s no indication the Pac-12 plans to double up the intra-conference matchups.

Sure, it could move forward with nine teams schools drop to an eight-game conference schedule. (The SEC and ACC also play eight league games.) But that approach would require each team to add one non-conference opponent — a tricky and costly proposition at this late date.

Most schedules are completed years in advance. Available teams from the FCS level assuredly would charge a steep price for their services as a creampuff — more than $500,000 for the three-hour date.

The simplest solution for the Pac-12 is the most intricate: Expand by at least one school for the 2024-25 sports year, which coincides with the conference’s next media rights contract — a contract that, ahem, has not been finalized.

Commissioner George Kliavkoff and campus officials are expected to expedite the process once Colorado’s move becomes official (as early as Thursday afternoon).

There are three obvious candidates:

— San Diego State

The Aztecs have been under consideration for the past year and only helped their cause with the run to the NCAA championship game.

They provide a critical presence in the Southern California region, bring the No. 27 media market and have a rising academic profile thanks to a change in California education law that allows the school to award doctorates in public health.

— SMU

Like SDSU, the Mustangs have been a top-tier expansion candidate for months.

Their football and men’s basketball programs need work, but the school’s wealthy donor base creates the possibility of significant resource investment and a strong NIL collective.

Additionally, the university is No. 72 in the U.S. News and World Report rankings and would provide a foothold in the nation’s No. 5 media market, which also happens to be one of the most talent-rich recruiting regions in the country.

— Colorado State

The Rams’ status as a second-tier expansion candidate could change with Colorado’s departure.

Competitively, they aren’t at SDSU’s level, with one NCAA Tournament appearance in the past decade and a football program that has lagged in the Mountain West.

However, adding Colorado State would enable the Pac-12 to maintain a presence in the Denver media market (No. 16), and the school is No. 151 in the U.S. News rankings (tied with Oregon State).

The Pac-12 could add any of the three schools to reach 10 members or all three to create a 12-team conference.

The one scenario we don’t foresee is adding two schools, which would produce an odd number (11) and add complications to scheduling and other matters.

What’s the most likely course of action?

There, too, complications arise. San Diego State and Colorado State make the most sense geographically but face steep Mountain West departure penalties.

Joining the Pac-12 for the 2024 season would carry a $34 million exit fee (approximately), while waiting for the 2025 season cuts that amount by 50 percent.

SMU also faces a departure penalty in the American Athletic Conference, but it likely would not be as steep: The AAC negotiated $18 million fees for Houston, UCF and Cincinnati when they joined the Big 12.

And as a private school with a donor base desperate for Pac-12 membership, the Mustangs are seemingly better equipped to cover the cost.

Bottom line: The Pac-12 has several obvious expansion options, just as it did for the 13 months prior to Colorado’s move. The only difference: Now, it has no choice.

---

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.