Pac-12 MBB power ratings: Arizona back on top, Oregon drops as Mountain schools sweep at home once again

One month down, it’s clear the race for the top four seeds in the Pac-12 tournament will run through the Mountain schools. And away from the Mountain schools.

Colorado and Utah have been dominant in the thin air, posting a combined record of 10-0 at home in conference games after last week’s double sweep of the Oregon schools.

Any team that can win in Boulder or Salt Lake City will gain a relative advantage over other contenders.

That said, the Buffaloes and Utes are winless on the road in conference play, with a combined mark of 0-6. They must figure out how to win in hostile environments in order to remain in the race for an opening round bye in Las Vegas.

One or two road wins probably won’t be enough.

Of the eight teams to secure top seeds in Las Vegas over the past two seasons, six won at least 14 conference games. The other two finished 12-8.

Unless the Buffaloes or Utes manage to win every home game, which we consider unlikely, they will need at least three road victories to meet the minimum standard (12 wins) for an opening-round bye.

The Hotline is equally interested in which schools can break through at altitude and whether the Mountain schools can win at sea level.

1. Arizona (14-4/5-2)

Last week: 2
Results: beat USC 82-67 and UCLA 77-71
NET ranking: No. 3
Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
Comment: The metric that anchors Arizona’s lofty NET ranking and first-rate resume despite two conference losses: Only three of the 14 wins are currently classified as Quadrant IV victories. No team contending for a high seed in the NCAAs has fewer.

2. Utah (14-5/5-3)

Last week: 3
Results: beat Oregon State 74-47 and Oregon 80-77
NET ranking: No. 25
Next up: at WSU (Wednesday)
Comment: Utah’s second sweep of the Oregon schools in the Pac-12 era — yep, only twice in 13 years — will lose most of its significance if the Utes turn around and get swept in Washington.

3. Colorado (14-5/5-3)

Last week: 6
Results: beat Oregon 86-70 and Oregon State 90-57
NET ranking: No. 33
Next up: at Washington (Wednesday)
Comment: The Buffaloes have shot at least 50 percent from the field in 11 of 19 games and are 30th nationally in offensive efficiency (per kenpom.com), which makes them a rare commodity in the Pac-12: A team that’s easy on the eyes.

4. Oregon (13-5/5-2)

Last week: 1
Results: lost at Colorado 86-70 and Utah 80-77
NET ranking: No. 53
Next up: vs. Arizona State (Thursday)
Comment: The next two weeks, at home against the Arizona schools and a trip to Los Angeles, will shape Oregon’s fate in the Pac-12 race and define its at-large resume. In our view, the Ducks must win three of four, or the situation turns a bit dire down the stretch.

5. Arizona State (11-7/5-2)

Last week: 4
Results: lost to UCLA 68-66, beat USC 82-67
NET ranking: No. 109
Next up: at Oregon (Thursday)
Comment: Given the daunting road schedule remaining for ASU — it features trips to Oregon, Los Angeles, Tucson and the Mountain schools — we aren’t close to convinced the Sun Devils deserve recognition as legitimate regular-season title contenders.

6. Washington State (13-6/4-4)

Last week: 5
Results: won at Stanford 89-75, lost at Cal 81-75 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 52
Next up: vs. Utah (Wednesday)
Comment: When allowing fewer than 75 points, the Cougars are an impressive 12-2. Makes sense for a team that leads with its defense and struggles with accuracy from 3-point range.

7. Stanford (10-8/5-3)

Last week: 7
Results: lost to WSU 89-75, beat Washington 90-80
NET ranking: No. 108
Next up: at Cal (Friday)
Comment: The first of Stanford’s two games against former star Mark Madsen, who was available for hire by the Cardinal last spring but, lacking an offer from his alma mater, instead has reinvigorated its rival.

8. Washington (11-8/3-5)

Last week: 8
Results: beat Cal 77-75, lost at Stanford 90-80
NET ranking: No. 77
Next up: vs. Colorado (Wednesday)
Comment: If reaching the NCAAs is required for coach Mike Hopkins to keep his job, the endgame is clear: The Huskies must win the Pac-12 tournament, or he’s gone. But if the situation is more subjective and depends, in part, on the program’s overall vibe, then the next three games (at home against the Mountain schools and WSU) are essential.

9. Cal (7-12/3-5)

Last week: 9
Results: lost to Washington 77-75, beat WSU 81-75 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 137
Next up: vs. Stanford (Friday)
Comment: For all the (deserved) attention on Jaylon Tyson and Fardaws Aimaq, Cal’s success down the stretch depends heavily on contributions from a third newcomer: guard Jalen Cone, the touted transfer from NAU.

10. UCLA (8-11/3-5)

Last week: 10
Results: won at ASU 68-66, lost at Arizona 77-71
NET ranking: No. 151
Next up: at USC (Saturday)
Comment: Don’t be surprised if the Bruins improve more from Jan. 1 to March 1 than any team in the conference. Their ceiling isn’t as low as it appears, and the February schedule is loaded with winnable games at home and on the road.

11. USC (8-11/2-6)

Last week: 11
Results: lost at Arizona 82-67 and ASU 82-67
NET ranking: No. 90
Next up: vs. UCLA (Saturday)
Comment: On the bright side: The concurrent absences of Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier — as was the case in Arizona — provide valuable playing time and role enhancement for everyone else. If the Trojans ever get fully healthy, their experienced bench will be a strength.

12. Oregon State (9-9/1-6)

Last week: 12
Results: lost at Utah 74-47 and Colorado 90-57
NET ranking: No. 196
Next up: vs. Arizona (Thursday)
Comment: It’s too early for the Wayne Tinkle Watch to commence, but that time is fast approaching.

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