Pac-12 MBB: Our postseason Hot Seat assessment and look at which coaches could depart on their own

One Pac-12 head coach is on the way out, and more could follow.

Perhaps by the end of the week.

Maybe in the next 36 hours.

The Pac-12 tournament begins Wednesday in Las Vegas with a slew of underachieving teams and underperforming coaches, including Washington’s Mike Hopkins, whose tenure is officially over when UW’s season concludes.

In fact, only three of the 12 coaches have cleared the Hotline’s bar for successful seasons based on the talent at their disposal and the results on the court: Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd, Cal’s Mark Madsen and Washington State’s Kyle Smith.

It’s difficult to compare Lloyd to anyone but UCLA’s Mick Cronin because the Arizona program operates on a different level, but Madsen and Smith have done a stellar job making their peers look bad.

Madsen took a program that was 3-29 last season and guided the Bears to a No. 7 seed in the Pac-12 tournament.

Smith has turned the Cougars, who were picked 10th in the Pac-12 preseason media poll, into the No. 2 seed and a lock for March Madness.

Based on tradition, resources and recruiting prowess, WSU should not finish ahead of Oregon, UCLA and Washington.

Given recent history and the state of the roster last spring, Cal should not finish ahead of USC, Stanford and Arizona State.

Smith and Madsen followed similar scripts, identifying transfers who would thrive in their systems and assimilating the newcomers in rapid fashion. They forged cohesive units that blew past all reasonable expectations.

Their peers look bad by comparison.

One is done, and more could follow.

More should follow.

Here’s our latest Hot Seat assessment as the postseason begins …

Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd

Contract: $5.6 million (signed through 2028-29)
Comment: Lloyd’s record in the regular season and conference tournament is a stellar 83-16. His record in the NCAA Tournament is merely 2-2, with a first-round flameout as the No. 2 seed. He cannot afford another early-round ex — actually, he can afford another early-round exit because …
Chance of vacancy: 0.001 percent. The Wildcats just gave Lloyd a multi-year contract extension and a big, fat raise. We can’t think of any circumstance that would prompt him to leave Tucson this spring but want to account for the unknown unknowns. You could read that percentage as just north of nil.

Arizona State’s Bobby Hurley

Contract: $2.6 million (signed through 2025-26)
Comment: Hurley quieted many critics last season when he led ASU to 23 wins and its third NCAA berth of his tenure. But the Sun Devils’ poor regular season — they finished behind Cal, as noted previously — has turned Hurley’s job security into a conversation topic once again.
Chance of vacancy: 25 percent. The Devils remain without a permanent athletic director, which complicates an accurate assessment of Hurley’s situation. But it’s clear his survival odds have taken a slight turn for the worse in recent months.

Cal’s Mark Madsen

Contract: $2.1 million
Comment: The first-year coach has done superb work in lifting the Bears from the Pac-12 gutter to a mid-level finish. After two ill-advised hires (Wyking Jones and Mark Fox) seemingly set the program back decades, the Bears finally have their man.
Chance of vacancy: 1 percent. But can they keep their man? Probably. Madsen’s market value is climbing, but the sample size remains small. Also, we are increasingly skeptical that Madsen would leave Berkeley for his alma mater (Stanford) if the opportunity arises.

Colorado’s Tad Boyle

Contract: $2.5 million (signed through 2026-27)
Comment: Boyle’s 14th team in Boulder is one of his most talented and has the NCAA Tournament in sight following a strong finish to the regular season. His staying power is such that Boyle likely will steer Colorado into a new conference for the second time: the Pac-12 in 2011, the Big 12 in 2024.
Chance of vacancy: 0.1 percent. The Colorado native just turned 61, so we don’t see Boyle leaving for another gig. But given his age and the demands of the job — not the Big 12 move so much as the NIL and transfer portal headaches — we cannot completely ignore the possibility of retirement.

Oregon’s Dana Altman

Contract: $4 million (signed through 2027-28)
Comment: The Ducks meandered to the finish and dropped to the No. 4 seed — essentially the same position as the two previous seasons and a considerable distance from the heyday of the Altman era.
Chance of vacancy: 10 percent. The 65-year-old will depart on his own terms and recently swatted away speculation that he plans to retire, which means he’s returning for Oregon’s first season in the Big Ten, right? Absolutely … maybe. We’ll believe it unequivocally when the Ducks’ season ends and Altman doesn’t hang it up.

Oregon State’s Wayne Tinkle

Contract: $2.7 million (signed through 2026-27)
Comment: The Beavers have some interesting young pieces (guard Jordan Pope and forward Tyler Bilodeau, to name two) but haven’t materially altered their position in the conference under Tinkle’s leadership.
Chance of vacancy: 25 percent. Tinkle is midway through the huge extension he signed following OSU’s run to the Elite Eight and seemingly is safe for next season unless the Beavers inherit millions from a long-lost relative. Two things can be equally true: OSU is a tough, tough job; and Tinkle is struggling to clear the low bar.

Stanford’s Jerrod Haase

Contract: Terms not disclosed
Comment: Haase has yet to lead the Cardinal into the NCAA Tournament, a stretch of mediocrity that began in the 2016-17 season and has several of the greatest players in school history calling for his job. Without a Pac-12 tournament title, Stanford’s drought will continue.
Chance of vacancy: 75 percent. The termination percentage would be above 90 anywhere else, but Stanford athletic director Bernard Muir has inexplicably stood by Haase for one lost season after another. The Hotline will believe a coaching change is coming only when we see it.

UCLA’s Mick Cronin

Contract: $4.1 million (signed through 2027-28)
Comment: The Bruins have lost all their midseason momentum and must win the Pac-12 tournament to secure a bid in the NCAAs. The last time they missed March Madness … wasn’t very long ago: The 2019 season, when Steve Alford was fired on New Year’s Eve.
Chance of vacancy: 5 percent. Cronin says he’s committed to UCLA, and we believe him — to a point. After all, every coach is committed to his employer until a better offer comes along. That said, Cronin’s buyout is $20 million. A few schools could afford it, but do they view Cronin as valuable enough to write the check?

USC’s Andy Enfield

Contract: Terms not disclosed
Comment: Thanks to three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, Enfield has developed a stellar credit line that should fortify him against any internal blowback from this disappointing season. (USC was picked second in the preseason poll but finished with the No. 9 seed.)
Chance of vacancy: 10 percent. We have always assumed that Enfield, who grew up in Pennsylvania, would eventually jump to a basketball-centric school on the East Coast. Then again, USC’s struggles could undermine his market value.

Utah’s Craig Smith

Contract: $2.1 million (signed through 2026-27)
Comment: The Utes staggered to the finish of Smith’s third regular season and have lost much of the momentum previously gained because they cannot win occasionally, much less regularly, on the road.
Chance of vacancy: 1 percent. We remain optimistic about Utah’s trajectory under Smith, but make no mistake: There will be significant pressure to make the NCAAs next season. Good thing the Utes will be competing in an easier conference.

Washington: Vacant

Contract: Not applicable
Comment: The Huskies announced late last week that Hopkins would not return. His trajectory is unprecedented in the Pac-12’s modern era: Coach of the Year honors in each of his first two seasons, then five years of abject mediocrity (or worse) and his walking papers. The termination arguably should have been made last spring.
Chance of vacancy: 100 percent. Where will the Huskies turn for a replacement? Their timing is superb in that the rise of the Mountain West creates several intriguing regional options, including Pullman native Danny Sprinkle, who has done fine work in his first season at Utah State.

Washington State’s Kyle Smith

Contract: $1.5 million (signed through 2026-27)
Comment: Smith’s fifth season trounced expectations, with the Cougars sweeping Arizona and locking up an NCAA berth regardless of their showing in the Pac-12 tournament.
Chance of vacancy: 60 percent. The good news is the bad news for the Cougars, whose stunning success increases the likelihood of Smith being lured away this spring. WSU is working on a contract extension but probably can’t compete with Big 12 or Big Ten schools — there’s a vacancy across the state — that possesses deeper pockets and greater NIL resources.

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