Pac-12 football: The Hotline’s post-spring practice predictions for the 2022 division races

Spring practice is complete, coaching staffs are set, the transfer cycle is coming to a close and a morsel of clarity has emerged from the Pac-12 haze.

The Hotline feels confident enough to declare all the offseason roster tumult has changed … absolutely nothing.

Oregon and Utah remain our picks for the division races, albeit with margins not as wide as they once were.

(Note: Projections were previously published in January.)

North

1. Oregon
Previous: 1
Best case: first
Worst case: third
Comment: Oregon’s edge in the division isn’t as decisive as in previous seasons, thereby threatening its quest for a fourth consecutive title. There are simply too many unknowns at quarterback, tailback, receiver and across the secondary. (That said, if the quarterback play is first rate on a weekly basis, Oregon’s relative advantage will expand.) The potential for a backslide is limited, however. The front seven, even without Kayvon Thibodeaux, should give the Ducks a chance to win each week.

2. Washington State
Previous: 2
Best case: first
Worst case: fourth
Comment: We gave serious consideration to picking WSU to win the division, for the gap between the Cougars and Ducks has narrowed substantially since November. WSU might have the best quarterback in the North (transfer Cam Ward) and is well-stocked with players suited for the systems deployed by now-permanent coach Jake Dickert. Next-level success clearly hinges on the offensive line coalescing. Of note: The Cougars play Oregon, UW and Cal at home and went 7-2 in conference with the even-year rotations in both ’16 and ’18.

3. Oregon State
Previous: 4
Best case: third
Worst case: fifth
Comment: The outline has been sketched with a Sharpie: OSU will come as close to maximizing its talent as any team in the division, but the personnel, however well it suits the schemes, doesn’t suggest a title is forthcoming. The Beavers remain average (relative to the competition) at a few too many positions. The days of sneaking up on opponents are long gone, but OSU has one hidden advantage in the schedule: It plays Cal and WSU the week after those teams face USC, and it plays Stanford the week after the Cardinal faces Oregon.

4. Washington
Previous: 3
Best case: first
Worst case: fifth
Comment: Clarity could come in August, at quarterback and elsewhere. For the time being, we are not impressed with the depth chart available to new coach Kalen DeBoer. The offense can’t get worse, but will any improvement be offset by regression on the other side of scrimmage? UW no longer possesses a dominant secondary to mask other flaws. Each time we take stock of the personnel, the same conclusion flows: The Huskies simply don’t have enough dudes for a nine- or 10-win season, especially with all their toughest league games on the road.

5. Cal
Previous: 5
Best case: second
Worst case: sixth
Comment: It took some work, but we eventually became comfortable with a scenario in which the Bears combine stout defense with a better-than-expected offense that generates enough big plays to ultimately produce a runner-up finish. But that would require regression by several teams and is not the most likely outcome. It’s far easier to envision the plot repeating itself in Berkeley, with a hit-and-miss attack leading to a heap of close games … and Cal coming out on the short end a few too many times to impact the North race.

6. Stanford
Previous: 6
Best case: third
Worst case: sixth
Comment: David Shaw enters his 12th season with a team bearing little resemblance to those of his early years in charge. The Cardinal is low on defensive talent and should lean heavily on the passing game with quarterback Tanner McKee and his array of able pass catchers. But the effectiveness of the previously-dormant running game will determine whether Stanford repeats its last-place finish or climbs to respectability. Suggestions that Shaw’s seat is hot ignore the fact that his job security is akin to that of a tenured professor.

South

1. Utah
Previous: 1
Best case: first
Worst case: third
Comment: Utah’s hold on the South has grown weaker over the months, not because of anything amiss with Kyle Whittingham’s program but because of what lurks immediately below. The Utes have fewer flaws and better cohesiveness than any team in either division with the vital triad (recruiting, player development and schemes) in perfect alignment. But how will the Utes respond to the kingfish role? Will they play with the same relentless drive that produced the conference title? If so, the Pac-12 might finally generate a playoff team.

2. USC
Previous: 2
Best case: first
Worst case: third
Comment: No team in the conference, and perhaps the country, has upgraded its roster as significantly as USC. However, we remain hesitant to pick the Trojans atop the South for two reasons: Utah’s edge in continuity; and the lingering uncertainty over USC’s defensive line and secondary. For al; the attention heaped on the offense, the most important newcomers not named Caleb Williams are linebacker Shane Lee (Alabama) and Eric Gentry (ASU) and cornerback Mekhi Blackmon (Colorado), because of the intense needs for upgrades within those units.

3. UCLA
Previous: 3
Best case: second
Worst case: fourth
Comment: If either Utah or USC struggles, the Bruins are well-positioned to fill the void with veteran quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and a needed shakeup to the defensive staff. But if the forecasts hold on the division’s top tier, UCLA’s ceiling might be the middle rung. Yes, the Bruins will benefit from the mess at ASU, and they have a clear edge over Arizona and Colorado. But we wonder if the developments across town and Utah’s steady state of excellence mean the window for Chip Kelly to claim the South has come and gone.

4. Arizona State
Previous: 5
Best case: third
Worst case: sixth
Comment: The Sun Devils received a rare bit of good news last week when Florida quarterback Emory Jones announced his transfer to ASU — and immediately became the frontrunner for the job. We believe Jones could be the difference between a middle- and bottom-tier finish. But no evaluation of ASU would be complete without mentioning the potential for the recruiting scandal to decimate the ’22 season, with a Notice of Allegations from the NCAA forcing the immediate termination of coach Herm Edwards.

5. Arizona
Previous: 4
Best case: third
Worst case: sixth
Comment: The progress in Tucson is undeniable, but the degree of progress is immeasurable until competition begins. Our hunch is the Wildcats have exited the realm of the awful and moved into that crowded space occupied by the mediocre. Certainly, they are positioned to zoom past Colorado, but have they caught ASU? Perhaps. Jayden de Laura’s arrival helps immensely in that regard, but as with so many teams, Arizona’s success hinges on the frequency with which the defense gets off the field on third down and the offensive line keeps the pocket clear.

6. Colorado
Previous: 6
Best case: fourth
Worst case: sixth
Comment: The roster depletion, combined with questions about the quarterbacks, made CU an easy pick for the bottom of the division. In fact, the Buffaloes won’t escape the South cellar without help. They need Arizona’s recovery to stall unexpectedly and ASU’s season to implode. Otherwise, there isn’t enough of anything to support a marked uptick in what we would describe as an important but not critical year for coach Karl Dorrell. Our strong sense is that ’23 will be the make-or-break season for his tenure.

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