Pac-12 bowl projections: ASU to the Sun, Washington to LA as outlook improves — and a note on the process

In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls that have been affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.

The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.

Please note: We also unveil our weekly CFP picks each Monday.

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The stretch run to an unprecedented college football season is fast approaching, with all the accompanying conjecture, debate and tribal messaging. Before we plunge into the latest Hotline projections for Pac-12 bowl bids, a few essential reminders:

— The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released Nov. 5 — yes, Election Day — followed by four weekly Tuesday editions. The only rankings that truly matter will be unveiled on the morning of Dec. 8.

— Bowl invitations will be extended hours after the 12-team CFP field is announced.

— The selection process for Pac-12 bowls mirrors that of previous seasons, with one exception: Overall record, not conference record, will determine the order of teams.

— The plus-one rule remains in place. Team B can leapfrog Team A in the selection process as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in record. If Colorado finishes 7-5, for example, the Buffaloes could jump a team that’s 8-4 but not a team that’s 9-3. And with coach Deion Sanders’ star power, the Buffs will be a hot commodity if they are eligible.

To the projections …

(Remaining opponents are listed in chronological order.)

College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten champion)
Schedule: vs. Illinois, at Michigan, vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington
Comment: The Ducks (7-0) are the closest thing to a CFP lock that exists across the landscape — partly because of their undefeated record and conquest of Ohio State, and partly because the upcoming schedule is stocked with mediocre opponents.

Alamo Bowl
Team: Washington State
Schedule: at San Diego State, vs. Utah State, at New Mexico, at Oregon State, vs. Wyoming
Comment: The Cougars (6-1) have a schedule built for stacking wins and distancing themselves from the teams (Colorado, USC) that could jump them in the selection process. If WSU reaches the 11-win mark, which is plenty realistic, it should receive the school’s first invitation to the Alamo Bowl since the days of Mike Leach and Gardner Minshew.

Holiday Bowl
Team: Colorado
Schedule: vs. Cincinnati, at Texas Tech, vs. Utah, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State
Comment: It’s far easier than expected to envision the Buffaloes (5-2) rolling through the stretch run and winning nine games, if not 10. But this being the Big 12, where mayhem is king, it’s nearly as easy to see them stumbling multiple times and finishing 7-5.

Las Vegas Bowl
Team: USC
Schedule: vs. Rutgers, at Washington, vs. Nebraska, at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame
Comment: It has been a mere 51 days since the Trojans (3-4) rallied to beat LSU. Since then, they have blown four fourth-quarter leads and entered desperation mode. We see three victories on the upcoming schedule but, admittedly, had to squint to do it.

Sun Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Schedule: at Oklahoma State, vs. UCF, at Kansas State, vs. BYU, at Arizona
Comment: The Sun Devils (5-2) are on the brink of an unlikely bowl berth, but the final victory might be more difficult than the previous five combined if quarterback Sam Leavitt isn’t healthy, the kicking game doesn’t improve and the schedule is as rugged as we foresee.

LA Bowl
Team: Washington
Schedule: at Indiana, vs. USC, at Penn State, vs. UCLA, at Oregon
Comment: The Huskies (4-3) appear to have caught a major break with the injury to Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke. If they win in Bloomington, then a victory over one of the L.A. schools would be enough to secure a bowl berth, leaving the trips to Eugene and State College free of postseason pressure.

Independence Bowl
Team: Arizona
Schedule: vs. West Virginia, at UCF, vs. Houston, at TCU, vs. Arizona State
Comment: The season’s trajectory has taken an unimaginably bad turn for the Wildcats (3-4), but here’s the good news: There are three wins available on the stretch-run schedule, and they don’t need to play at an elite level to secure them. They just need to be competent.

ESPN bowl

Team: Cal
Schedule: vs. Oregon State, at Wake Forest, vs. Syracuse, vs. Stanford, at SMU
Comment: The last game of the season (at SMU) is likely the only instance in which the Bears (3-4) will be a substantial underdog. But with four ACC losses coming by a total of nine points, Cal has repeatedly shown an expertise in snatching defeat from the brink of victory.

At-large bowl
Team: Utah
Schedule: at Houston, vs. BYU, at Colorado, vs. Iowa State, at UCF
Comment: Not on our bingo card this season: Vanderbilt beating Alabama; Army and Navy being undefeated in mid-October; and the Utes (4-3) having a precarious path into the postseason. Their stretch-run schedule is far tougher than it might seem.

Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Schedule: at Cal, vs. San Jose State, at Air Force, vs. Washington State, at Boise State
Comment: The Beavers (4-3) must win at least two of the final five to secure a bowl berth. At first glance, the San Jose State and Air Force games offer the best path forward. But the Spartans are 5-2, and the Falcons’ triple option could be problematic for an OSU defense that can’t stop the run.

Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Schedule: vs. Wake Forest, at NC State, vs. Louisville, at Cal, at San Jose State
Comment: Barring an injury, freshman quarterback Elijah Brown should take every snap the rest of the season for the Cardinal (2-5), every snap through the offseason and every snap for the foreseeable future.

Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Schedule: at Nebraska, vs. Iowa, at Washington, vs. USC, vs. Fresno State
Comment: Relative to expectations, the Bruins (2-5) are performing better than the team across town. So it’s not all bad in Westwood.

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