Our early college basketball Top 25 for 2026-27: Michigan, Florida and Louisville atop the list as transfers take shape

The gates swung open the day after the national championship game. Within the time needed to utter the phrase name, image and likeness, more than 2,000 players took the transfer portal plunge.

Most haven’t selected their home — that process will play out over weeks, as will NBA Draft decisions (for early-entry candidates). But enough is known to this point, on both fronts, to begin forecasting the hierarchy for the 2026-27 season.

The following rankings will be updated in early June, after the top transfers are accounted for and NBA decisions are finalized.

Here we go …

Also considered: Akron, Alabama, Auburn, BYU, Clemson, High Point, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio State, San Diego State, Santa Clara, Syracuse, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Tulsa, UCLA, Utah State, Villanova and Wisconsin

1. Michigan: The national champions lose star Yaxel Lendeborg, but they have retained point guard Elliot Cadeau and shooter Trey McKenney, acquired Tennessee big man J.P. Estrella — he’s one of the top players in the portal — and have a starting spot waiting for elite recruit Brandon McCoy. If either center Aday Mara or forward Morez Johnson returns, the Wolverines will be the team to beat.

2. Florida: No team has wider range within our forecast. If big men Alex Condon and Reuben Chinyelu opt to return (instead of entering the NBA Draft), the Gators will remain locked in the top tier of title contenders. If the big men depart, coach Todd Golden will be forced to retool his lineup — and you’ll see Florida closer to No. 25 than No. 1 in the updated rankings later this spring.

3. Louisville: The Cardinals were not considered for the top 10 when the Hotline sketched out the first draft of our early Top 25 last week. And then Sunday happened: Louisville landed Oregon point guard Jackson Shelstad and Kansas big man Flory Bidunga — two of the top players in the portal, both manning critical positions. That should more than offset the loss of guard Mikel Brown to the NBA.

4. UConn: For a handful of schools, roster specifics are a secondary consideration compared to the return of the head coach. At this point, we have no reason to believe Dan Hurley will leave for the NBA, which means the Huskies have a spot reserved in the top 10 despite the loss of big man Tarris Reed and the likely loss of Duke-slayer Brayden Mullins.

5. Duke: These rankings reflect our projections for the regular season, not whether teams will find new and preposterous ways to blow leads in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils are well set for the five-month grind with a strong collection of returnees, including point guard Caleb Foster, and the arrival of mega-recruit Cameron Williams.

6. Illinois: Coach Brad Underwood and Co. were not one-hit wonders. Yes, point guard Keaton Wagler is leaving for the NBA, but many of the key supporting players are expected back. Also, Illinois added Providence guard Stefan Vaaks, who averaged 25.5 points in the Big East tournament.

7. Michigan State: As noted above with Duke, this is a regular-season forecast. The Spartans will be just fine in the Big Ten. (If point guard Jeremy Fears returns, they will be a clear frontrunner, along with Michigan and Illinois.) But we are forever skeptical that coach Tom Izzo will have enough playmakers to advance deep in the NCAAs. Once the second weekend arrives, teams cannot win with defense alone.

8. Arkansas: As usual, John Calipari landed a stellar freshman class. Add returnees Meleek Thomas and Billy Richmond to the rotation and the Razorbacks should offset the loss of all-everything guard Darius Acuff. But the defense must improve in order to reach the Final Four.

9. Texas: The March success should continue in coach Sean Miller’s second season despite Dailyn Swain declaring for the draft. The Longhorns will return big man Matas Vokietaitis and have landed two of the top players in the portal: Colorado guard Isaiah Johnson and TCU forward David Punch. If Swain returns, the Longhorns could be a consensus top-10 team in preseason rankings.

10. St. John’s: It’s probably unfair to suggest the Red Storm was gutted by attrition this spring, but they lost star big man Zuby Ejiofor and forwards Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell (combined production: 38 points and 20 rebounds). As a result, coach Rick Pitino must find a new frontline. Our confidence in his prospects for success? Off the charts.

11. Arizona: Point guard Jaden Bradley is out of eligibility, wing Dwayne Aristode is transferring and we expect Brayden Burries and Koa Peat to leave for the NBA. The production loss will be offset, to some degree, by five-star recruit Caleb Holt. But coach Tommy Lloyd is expected to lean into the portal to recharge the perimeter. His success in that endeavor will impact Arizona’s placement in the next version of these rankings.

12. Houston: For the first time in eons, the Cougars underachieved under coach Kelvin Sampson — partly in the regular season results but mostly with the Sweet 16 face plant against Illinois. Their top players are expected to depart, including NBA lottery-bound guard Kingston Flemings, leaving Sampson to rebuild his rotation. Point guard Dedan Thomas, who averaged 15 points for LSU, provides a nice launch point for the endeavor.

13. Nebraska: Many of the little-known players who led the Cornhuskers to their greatest season are set to return, with leading scorer Pryce Sandfort atop that list. But our forecast is tempered slightly because of an issue unrelated to the roster details: Nebraska will, for the first time in school history, face expectations — real, justifiable, lasting expectations. No more sneaking up on opponents for Fred Hoiberg and Co.

14. Gonzaga: As with UConn, the Zags are a mainstay in our early rankings as long as Mark Few remains in charge. Yes, the roster was flawed last season and needs work, but that process is well underway with the addition of Houston transfer Isiah Harwell. We view wing Davis Fogle as an emerging star, and point guard Mario Saint-Supery should be much-improved as a sophomore. The key for the Bulldogs entering their first year in the Pac-12 is forward Braden Huff returning to full health, which seems the most likely outcome.

15. USC: Eric Musselman is a Year 3 coach. He took Nevada to the Sweet 16 in his third season in Reno and Arkansas to the Elite Eight in his third season in Fayetteville. USC’s roster is equipped for similar success with three impact scorers returning (Rodney Rice, Alijah Arenas and Jacob Cofie) and three blue-chip recruits arriving. If Musselman doesn’t break through next winter, he might never lift the program to the heights expected.

16. Virginia: The Cavaliers surprised everyone in 2026 except those who followed coach Ryan Odom’s career. He won at UMBC, stunning No. 1 seed Virginia in the NCAAs, and he won at Utah State in a two-year stint. Virginia has the NIL game necessary to compete for a top-tier position in the ACC, especially with leading scorer Thijs De Ridder expected to return.

17. Saint Louis: Cream Abdul-Jabbar, Milk Chamberlain, Steph Blurry — whatever you want to call him, Billikens big man Robbie Avila has graced college basketball for the final time. That said, most of the key pieces to SLU’s 29-win machine are expected back. So, too, is Josh Schertz, one of the hottest coaches on the market. We view St. John’s and Gonzaga as the best of the non-football schools in 2026-27, although the Billikens could prove that presumption wrong.

18. Vanderbilt: What quarterback Diego Pavia was to Vanderbilt football, point guard Tyler Tanner is to Vanderbilt basketball. With all signs pointing to Tanner’s return following a breakout season in which he averaged 19.5 points per game, the Commodores should be a factor in the SEC once again.

19. North Carolina: It’s easy to compare hiring former Nuggets coach Michael Malone to the all-in decision with Bill Belichick last year, but we view Malone’s outlook in Chapel Hill as substantially more promising. He has an elite big man in Henri Veesaar, one of the nation’s top recruits in point guard Dylan Mingo and the NIL war chest needed to backfill the rotation.

20. Iowa: There’s a case for Ben McCollum as the best NCAA Tournament coach in the sport not named Dan Hurley, but these rankings are based on the regular season. And without court maestro Bennett Stirtz, the Hawkeyes could encounter a few potholes from November through February.

21. Miami: The momentum continues for second-year coach Jai Lucas, who led the Hurricanes to 24 wins in his rookie year and has landed two top transfers in Georgia center Somto Cyril and Villanova guard Acaden Lewis. They should help offset the departure of top scorer Malik Reneau.

22. VCU: The bulk of the rotation responsible for 28 wins and the first-round upset of North Carolina is set to return for coach Phil Martelli Jr., and that’s plenty good enough for us. The Atlantic 10 could be the best of the mid-major conferences with VCU and Saint Louis leading the charge to relevance.

23. Purdue: Sure, the Boilermakers are losing four starters, including point guard Braden Smith. But as with the likes of Dan Hurley, Tom Izzo and Mark Few, coach Matt Painter has an annual spot reserved in the Hotline’s early Top 25. Until we see details of the transfer class, however, this is as high as Purdue can reasonably be slotted.

24. Tennessee: Rick Barnes repeatedly has proven his program should not be overlooked, and yet … the Vols are often overlooked. But with three high-level transfers secured, including Cal’s Dai Dai Ames, they appear well-positioned to maintain an impressive standard of success.

25. Miami (Ohio): What if last season was just the opening act for the RedHawks? Of the top nine players (in minutes per game), only two were seniors. Forward Brant Byers has entered the portal. But if that’s the extent of the attrition, Miami could be a tournament team once again.

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