The prodigal son is gone. Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith accepted Michigan State’s contract offer on Saturday, one day after his alma mater suffered a season-ending loss to Oregon that felt funereal on multiple levels:
— Their last regular-season game in the Pac-12.
— Their last scheduled rivalry game against the Ducks.
— Their last game with Smith on the sideline.
This is not a gut punch, folks. It’s a right cross to an exposed jaw as the Beavers scramble to secure their future following the implosion of the Pac-12. Is Oregon State rebuilding the conference? Will it eventually join the Mountain West? How deep are the resources? How thin is the roster?
It’s brutal timing in every regard. Candidates for the position will have a slew of questions the school simply cannot answer.
That said, we view this as the wrong move for Smith — not because he’s leaving OSU, which is understandable given the uncertainty, but because Michigan State is the wrong job.
It’s a second-rate gig in a first-rate conference with a blue blood program a few miles down the road.
In many ways, Smith is taking on the same challenges in East Lansing that he faced in Corvallis, except MSU isn’t his alma mater, it’s not on the West Coast and it will lose additional ground within the Big Ten hierarchy once Oregon, Washington and USC come aboard.
Maybe Smith relishes the assignment. Maybe he can’t turn down the money. (The contract terms have not been released, but Smith will receive a huge raise from the $5 million he earned in Corvallis.) Maybe he thinks OSU is headed into the abyss.
But we envision Smith getting swallowed up by the Big Ten and lost in the machinery of the massive league, unable to carve an identity that works for the Spartans the way his methods worked for OSU.
Meanwhile, the Beavers are reeling on the field and off, and athletic director Scott Barnes has a daunting to-do list.
In addition to figuring out OSU’s conference affiliation and competition schedules for the fall of 2024, Barnes must find a head coach — and, in theory, do it before the transfer portal opens on Dec. 4.
The Beavers could lose the bulk of their two-deep.
Fortunately, they have a hiring model in place: Find Jonathan Smith 2.0.
In other words, they need a coach with ultra-sharp evaluation skills, because OSU’s success depends on turning two- and three-star recruits into all-conference performers.
They need a coach whose style of play fits OSU’s recruiting pool, a coach who can sell the Corvallis experience to transfers seeking a second chance, who’s comfortable working in the shadows, who embraces what OSU has to offer and doesn’t dwell on resources the school cannot provide.
Of course, the candidates will want to know about resource allocation in a post-Pac-12 existence, about the conference affiliation, about NIL support and the schedule for 2024 and so much more.
And the Beavers won’t have all the answers.
It’s awful timing– so awful, in fact, that we’d argue the Beavers would have been better off with a mediocre season that depressed Smith’s market value in much the same way Washington’s State’s struggles cooled Jake Dickert’s candidacy for Michigan State or any other power conference opening.
In our view, Oregon State should consider the following (listed alphabetically):
Oregon State defensive coordinator Trent Bray: One of two candidates on OSU’s current staff, along with offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren. Bray’s advantage lies in the bloodlines: He played for Oregon State under former coach Mike Riley. Also, the Beavers’ recent uptick in success coincides with Bray’s elevation to the role of permanent defensive playcaller after the 2021 season. To the extent that OSU must avoid risk with this critical hire, Bray is the safest play available.
San Jose State coach Brent Brennan: Brennan took over a low-resource program that fell into the Group of Five gutter and steadily rebuilt the Spartans: They are bowl-eligible for the third time in the past four years. Brennan is a tireless recruiter and engaging personality who also knows Oregon State well. He spent six seasons on staff, coaching wide receivers under Mike Riley (and Gary Andersen) before taking the SJSU job in late 2016. Is Oregon State a better job than San Jose State given the uncertainty? Yes. But Brennan is a Bay Area native whose parents attended SJSU. So it would not be an easy decision.
LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock: Few coordinators have been more successful this season than Denbrock, who oversees the nation’s top offense (46.8 points per game) and has developed quarterback Jayden Daniels into a Heisman Trophy frontrunner. Denbrock knows the Pacific Northwest — he spent four years coaching UW’s offensive line in the mid-2000s — and has worked for two elite coaches over the past decade: Brian Kelly (Notre Dame and LSU) and Luke Fickell (Cincinnati).
Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb: Hiring UW’s offensive coordinator worked for the Beavers in 2017, so why not consider another raid on Montlake? It would be a harder sell with Grubb than it was with Smith, of course. But clearly, the Huskies’ playcaller knows offense, has worked for a first-rate head coach and carries a strong enough reputation to attract players in the transfer portal. Might Grubb be hesitant, given OSU’s situation? For sure.
Ex-Boise State coach Bryan Harsin: If you lost track of Harsin’s career following his string of Mountain West titles with the Broncos, know that he lasted a grand total of 1.5 seasons at Auburn — a poor fit in every regard. Harsin wants to get back on the sideline, with an eye on the West Coast. (We believe he’s pursuing the San Diego State vacancy at full speed.) Like Smith, he knows the Pacific Northwest, is a former quarterback and worked for Chris Petersen.
Oregon State offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren: If the Beavers promote from within, Lindgren stands alongside Bray as the only options. He has a stellar reputation as a playcaller and obviously understands what works for OSU’s recruiting pool. Plus, promoting Lindgren might give the Beavers a better chance to retain one of their quarterbacks, D.J. Uiagalelei or Aidan Chiles, plus tailback Damien Martinez and stellar offensive line coach Jim Michalczik.
UNLV coach Barry Odom: Many fans might have missed the remarkable turnaround in Sin City, where Odom has transformed the Rebels in a single, spectacular season. Hired just 50 weeks ago, Odom took over a program that hadn’t posted a winning season in 10 years and is currently atop the Mountain West with a 9-2 record. Odom has Power Five experience, as well, having coached Missouri for four seasons in the late 2010s. As with SJSU’s Brennan, we offer the same opinion: Despite the lingering uncertainty, Oregon State is a better job than UNLV.