Bill Polian calls it the “draft industrial complex” — the tendency for the NFL media machinery to generate unrealistic expectations for quarterbacks projected as first-round selections.
“They can’t live up to it,” said Polian, a six-time NFL Executive of the Year and one of the greatest talent evaluators in league history. “The adjustment from college is huge.
“And usually, the better the arm, the harder the lessons.”
Pac-12 quarterbacks included.
No conference has a better collection available in the 2024 NFL Draft, which begins Thursday in Detroit.
USC’s Caleb Williams is the presumptive first overall pick, seemingly destined for Chicago, with Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix as potential Day One selections, as well.
All three face a steep learning curve, Polian told the Hotline earlier this week.
Their chief hurdle: Adjusting from the spread offense to the NFL system, which features a higher percentage of throws from the pocket and often requires quarterbacks to make three or four reads before delivering the ball into tighter windows than exist in college.
“You can’t put the ball in harm’s way in the NFL and get away with it,” said Polian, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame after his run as general manager of the Bills, Panthers and Colts.
“Additionally, college quarterbacks haven’t faced the ferocity of the pass rush they will see in the NFL. And they haven’t faced the post-snap sophistication of the defenses that they will see in the NFL.”
Polian likes what he has seen from Williams, Penix and Nix but believes all three will have a tougher adjustment than Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, who played a Pro Style offense under coach Jim Harbaugh.
“Williams is an arresting talent,” Polian said. “His arm talent is undeniable, and he can make off-schedule throws. He’ll be drafted No. 1 no matter what. But he’s going to have a breaking-in period … McCarthy is further along in his development.”
Polian believes Penix will be selected in the first round but is wary of the shoulder and knee injuries sustained at Indiana.
“His size, his arm, his maturity, his competitiveness — everything’s fine. And he’s a quick processor. He sees the field very well,” Polian said.
“The injuries issues are the only thing that troubles me with him. He’s going to have to be careful running the ball and recognize the need to protect himself.
“But if I was a betting man, I’d bet he goes in the first round.”
Polian was slightly more skeptical about Nix, largely because of Oregon’s spread offense.
“It’s a big jump in the style of play,” he said. “He’s mature and has enough escapability to make you worry about him as a defender.
“He certainly has a chance to be pretty good, but I don’t know if he’s necessarily a first-rounder. He might be a second-rounder.”
One thing is certain: Nix won’t be the first quarterback selected; neither will Penix.
But recent history suggests there’s a path to stardom nonetheless.
It has been eight years since the quarterback voted first-team All-Pro was the top quarterback selected in his draft class. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, the first-teamer in 2016, was the first quarterback off the board in 2008.
Since 2016, none of the first- or second-team All-Pro selections — the list includes Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson — was the top quarterback selected in his draft.
So many of the essential traits, from mental processing power and toughness to work ethic and the ability to handle pressure, cannot be quantified.
“That stuff is 55 percent of the grade,” Polian said of his method for evaluating quarterbacks.
“Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie. That’s the real world. But in the world of the draft industrial complex, all these guys are going to make the playoffs in Year 1.
“The transition is hard, and if you don’t have good players around you, especially at receiver and offensive line, it’s really hard.”
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP top-25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree.