NCAA Tournament: Regional breakdowns, Cinderella options, top players and picks for all 67 games

The NCAA Tournament began seeding teams in 1979, the year Michigan State beat Indiana State in the championship game that changed the sport.

In the subsequent 40-something years, there have been just two occasions of all the No. 1 seeds advancing to the Final Four. It took three decades for the first instance to unfold (2008) and another 17 years for the second (2025).

Could the feat repeat this month?

It seems unlikely, but three of the top seeds — Duke, Arizona and Michigan — dominated the regular season, and the fourth, Florida, is the defending champion.

They are the betting favorites, and it isn’t particularly close.

That undeniable hegemony is the first issue to consider when filling out the brackets: If not the No. 1s, then … who?

Which teams have a reasonable chance to derail the frontrunners? Is there black ice on their roads to the Final Four?

We spotted a patch, but only for one.

Welcome to the Hotline’s breakdown of the four regions and picks for all 67 games.

Thank us later.

East

Overview: No region oozes star power like the East with its lineup of blue-blood programs, high-profile players and Hall of Fame-caliber coaches: St. John’s Rick Pitino, Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, UConn’s Danny Hurley, Kansas’ Bill Self and (eventually) Duke’s Jon Scheyer. Did UCLA’s solid showing in the Big Ten tournament signal a deep March run for the Bruins? Will mercurial KU star Darryn Peterson play like a No. 1 draft pick (assuming he actually plays)? Can UConn find the magic that produced NCAA titles in 2023-24? It will take a mammoth effort for anyone to derail the Blue Devils despite their depleted state without injured point guard Caleb Foster.

Potential Cinderella: No. 14 North Dakota State. The Bison aren’t just a football powerhouse at the FCS level (heading into the Mountain West). The Summit League champions are dangerous on the court, as well.

Top player: Duke F Cameron Boozer. The most impactful player in the sport is a freshman who averages 22.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game (plus 4.2 assists). And at 6-foot-9, Boozer shoots 41 percent from 3-point range. Remarkable.

Best coach: St. John’s Rick Pitino. If he’s not the greatest college coach of all time, Pitino stands as the best coach since John Wooden ruled the sport.

Fun fact: Seven schools in the East have combined to win 31 NCAA titles: UCLA (11), UConn (six), Duke (five), Kansas (four), Louisville (two), Michigan State (two) and Ohio State (one).

Intriguing matchup: No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 5 St. John’s (second round). Absolute coaching royalty with Self and Pitino, who have combined for four NCAA championships and 10 Final Four appearances, plus more than 1,700 wins.

First round: Duke over Siena, TCU over Ohio State, St. John’s over Northern Iowa, Kansas over Cal Baptist, Louisville over South Florida, Michigan State over North Dakota State, UCLA over UCF and UConn over Furman

Second round: Duke over TCU, St. John’s over Kansas, Louisville over Michigan State and UConn over UCLA

Sweet 16: Duke over St. John’s and UConn over Louisville

Elite Eight: Duke over UConn

South

Overview: The theme of the South is home cooking. No. 1 Florida opens its title defense in Tampa while No. 2 Houston, which lost the 2025 championship game to the Gators, would play the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight in its hometown (if the Cougars advance that far). Three of the 10 most efficient offenses in the country reside in the South (Illinois, Vanderbilt and Florida), as do several mid-major teams that could survive the first weekend. Don’t sleep on Nebraska, which was 20-0 at one point and is looking for its first-ever NCAA Tournament win. Also, does No. 6 North Carolina have enough to wreck the brackets without injured forward Caleb Wilson, a future NBA lottery pick?

Potential Cinderella: No. 11 VCU. The Rams would not have made the field through the at-large pool but won the Atlantic 10 tournament to secure their spot. In fact, they have only lost once since early January. Don’t be surprised if they reach the Sweet 16.

Top player: Florida F Thomas Haugh. The first-team all-SEC pick is elite on both ends of the court and was a key contributor to Florida’s title run last year. That experience gives him the edge over Houston’s Kingston Flemings.

Best coach: Houston’s Kelvin Sampson. The future Hall of Famer has three Final Four appearances and was three points away from his first championship last year. Is it his turn, finally?

Fun fact: Florida is attempting to join UCLA as the only schools in history to win back-to-back NCAA titles twice. The Gators were the last team standing in 2006-07 under coach Billy Donovan.

Intriguing matchup: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (Sweet 16). You’d expect the top seed to have the advantage, but the SEC combatants just dueled on a neutral court in the conference tournament and the Commodores won … by 17.

First round: Florida over Lehigh, Iowa over Clemson, Vanderbilt over McNeese State, Troy over Nebraska, VCU over North Carolina, Illinois over Penn, Saint Mary’s over Texas A&M and Houston over Idaho.

Second round: Florida over Iowa, Vanderbilt over Troy, Illinois over VCU and Houston over Saint Mary’s

Sweet 16: Florida over Vanderbilt and Houston over Illinois

Elite Eight: Houston over Florida

West

Overview: This loaded region features tournament champions from the Big 12 (Arizona), Big Ten (Purdue) and SEC (Arkansas), plus the Mountain West (Utah State), West Coast Conference (Gonzaga) and Big West (Hawaii), not to mention the potential No. 1 pick in the draft (BYU’s AJ Dybantsa). It’s also stacked with elite coaches. No. 2 Purdue was the preseason No. 1 (AP poll) but struggled down the stretch before recalibrating for a run through the Big Ten tournament. No. 4 Arkansas followed a similar arc, finding traction as February turned to March. If the top four seeds advance, the Sweet 16 in San Jose should be pulsating.

Potential Cinderella: No. 11 NC State. Admittedly, it’s a slight stretch to stick the Cinderella tag on an ACC team, but the Wolf Pack are a double-digit seed pegged for the First Four. And Coach Will Wade is a master of March.

Top player: Arkansas G Darius Acuff Jr. March Madness is all about perimeter play, and the Razorbacks have arguably the best point guard in the country. That said, the wondrous Dybantsa gives off some Danny (Manning) and the Miracles vibes.

Best coach: Gonzaga’s Mark Few. This season was (quietly) one of Few’s best coaching jobs: The Zags have been without star forward Braden Huff for two months but nonetheless won 30 games. Few has reached the Sweet 16 (at least) in nine of the past 10 tournaments.

Fun fact: Three of the top 10 players in ESPN’s latest mock NBA Draft can be found in the West: Dybantsa (No. 2), Acuff (No. 7) and Arizona guard Brayden Burries (No. 10).

Intriguing matchup: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (Elite Eight): This would be too good to be true with Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd facing his former boss, Few, for the first time.

First round: Arizona over LIU, Utah State over Villanova, Wisconsin over High Point, Arkansas over Hawaii, NC State over BYU, Gonzaga over Kennesaw State, Miami (Florida) over Missouri and Purdue over Queens

Second round: Arizona over Utah State, Arkansas over Wisconsin, Gonzaga over NC State and Purdue over Miami

Sweet 16: Arizona over Arkansas and Purdue over Gonzaga

Elite Eight: Arizona over Purdue

Midwest

Overview: The region with the lowest star power, by far, in all three phases (coaches, players and schools) could be the most unpredictable. The top-seeded Wolverines have not been dominant since losing guard L.J. Cason to injury a few weeks ago; No. 2 seed Iowa State has a favorable path but often underperforms in the NCAAs; Virginia is arguably the least impressive No. 3 seed in the tournament; and No. 4 Alabama is fresh off a bad loss in the conference tournament. Uncertainty at the top of the Midwest could open a path for one of three middle seeds from the SEC or, perhaps, for one of several mid-majors that possess the DNA to morph into Cinderella.

Potential Cinderella: No. 10 Santa Clara. The Broncos are back in the NCAAs for the first time since the Steve Nash-led team in 1996. They have the coaching, size and guard play to cause major trouble for higher seeds, starting with No. 7 Kentucky.

Top player: Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg. The Big Ten Player of the Year is a key piece to the nation’s best defense and leads the Wolverines in scoring (and is second in assists). Not bad for a transfer from UAB.

Best coach: Texas Tech’s Grant McCasland. Without star forward JT Toppin, the Red Raiders need McCasland to conjure some March magic.

Fun fact: Tennessee’s Rick Barnes is the winningest active head coach in Division I (836 victories) without an NCAA championship.

Intriguing matchup: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama (Sweet 16). Given the rift that has developed between the Big Ten and SEC on major issues facing the industry, including the future format of the College Football Playoff, this duel would have a rich backdrop.

First round: Michigan over UMBC, Georgia over St. Louis, Akron over Texas Tech, Alabama over Hofstra, Tennessee over Miami (Ohio), Virginia over Wright State, Santa Clara over Kentucky and Iowa State over Tennessee State

Second round: Michigan over Georgia, Alabama over Akron, Tennessee over Virginia and Iowa State over Santa Clara

Sweet 16: Michigan over Alabama and Iowa State over Tennessee

Elite Eight: Michigan over Iowa State

Final Four

Overview: On the true seed list of all 68 teams crafted by the selection committee, our national semifinalists were ranked No. 1 (Duke), No. 2 (Arizona), No. 3 (Michigan) and No. 5 (Houston). We scoured the brackets for teams that could not only beat them. Alas, it was even more difficult than imagined. The Hotline typically hates picking favorites, unless we’re right.

Semifinals: Arizona over Michigan and Duke over Houston

Championship: Duke 82, Arizona 72. A quarter century after Carlos Boozer and the Blue Devils handled one of Arizona’s greatest teams in the NCAA finals, his son, Cameron, does the same.

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