NCAA Tournament championship pick: Irresistible force (Michigan) vs. immovable object (Dan Hurley)

One bench: Michigan, which has obliterated all opponents.

The other bench: Dan Hurley, who has obliterated all point spreads.

The Wolverines are 7.5-point favorites for good reason. Their five tournament victories have come by an average of 21.6 points, and their 51-point victory margin in the Elite Eight (against Tennessee) and national semifinal (Arizona) is the largest since UCLA in 1968.

Given that dominance, and considering how ragged UConn looked offensively in the semifinal win over Illinois, Michigan seemingly should be favored by double digits.

But the Hurley factor cannot be overlooked. He has compiled an astounding 11-0 record against the point spread in the Sweet 16, Elite Eight and Final Four rounds during his tenure with the Huskies.

UConn won the national title in 2023 and repeated in 2024, lost last year by two points (in the second round) to eventual champion Florida, and is now on the brink of a third title in four years — a feat not accomplished since John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty.

Bet against Hurley at your peril.

To the pick …

First round: 1-7
Second round: 2-5
Sweet 16: 3-2
Elite Eight: 3-1
Final Four: 1-1
Total: 10-16

All picks against the spread
Lines courtesy of Fanduel

(All times Pacific)

No. 2 UConn (+7.5) over No. 1 Michigan
Tipoff: Monday at 5:50 p.m. on TBS/TNT/truTV
Over/Under: 144.5
Comment: The current spread is the largest for the championship game since North Carolina (over Michigan State) in 2009, and we suspect the line will climb by tipoff despite Yaxel Lendeborg’s knee injury. (The Big Ten Player of the Year is expected to play but could be limited, particularly on defense.)

The Huskies present an entirely different challenge for Michigan than did Arizona, which used an inside-out offense that played perfectly to Michigan’s defensive strength. UConn’s attack uses perimeter action to create 3-point shots, driving lanes and low-post opportunities for big man Tarris Reed.

That said, the Wolverines create significant matchup issues for UConn’s defense with the 6-foot-11 Reed facing the 7-foot-3 Aday Mara, who torched Arizona with 26 points.

As is often the case, game flow will hinge on poise (e.g., turnovers) and 3-point accuracy. If the Huskies shoot well and Michigan struggles, it should be competitive throughout. If the Wolverines shoot well and UConn does not, it will take on the same profile as their demolition of Arizona.

(Of note: Huskies guard Solo Ball has a sprained foot and did not practice Sunday. He is expected to play but, like Lendeborg, could be limited.)

The Hotline has no intention of standing in front of either Michigan’s scoreboard dominance or Hurley’s point spread mastery. We’ll split the difference and pick the Wolverines to win but the Huskies to cover.

Score prediction: Michigan 83, UConn 76

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