Metcalfe – Pac-12 WBB Selection Sunday preview:deep dive into bid totals, seed lines and host schools

Story by Jeff Metcalfe 

The Pac-12’s prospects for the NCAA Tournament already were bright when the conference tournament wrapped up in Las Vegas last weekend — and they have only gotten brighter since.

ESPN is projecting seven teams will make the cut for March Madness on Sunday, with a conference-record five of those teams hosting games for the first and second rounds. If that projection becomes reality, 20 teams — almost 30 percent of the tournament field — would compete at Pac-12 arenas for the chance to reach the Sweet 16.

Even with Texas winning the Big 12 tournament on Tuesday, ESPN forecasts that USC and Stanford will receive No. 1 seeds, along with South Carolina and Iowa. Both Pac-12 teams could be slotted in the Portland region for Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games.

Only once in its history has the conference claimed two No. 1 seeds: In 1990, when Stanford and Washington had the honor, and the Cardinal went on to win its first national title.

Colorado’s outlook for hosting opening-round games improved with losses by Oklahoma on Monday in the Big 12 tournament and Gonzaga on Tuesday in the WCC event. (The Sooners won’t host even as a No. 4 seed because of an arena conflict with the Big 12 gymnastics championships.)

USC, Stanford, UCLA and Oregon State seemingly are locks to host NCAA games, with Colorado possibly joining the quartet. The Los Angeles schools have not hosted NCAA games in the same season since 1992.

Utah is projected to receive a No. 5 seed by ESPN while Arizona is a No. 11 and slotted to play in one of the First Four games.

Of the six unranked Pac-12 teams, No. 35 (NET ranking) Arizona seems more likely to make the NCAAs than No. 29 Washington State because of the Cougars’ 3-8 record since losing star Charlisse Leger-Walker to a season-ending injury.

The Wildcats are 5-3 since Feb. 16, with a win over Stanford and two narrow losses to USC.

Instead of a fourth consecutive NCAA appearance, WSU appears bound for the new 32-team WBIT — an event owned and funded by the NCAA. Washington and California also could wind up in the WBIT.

The WBIT semifinals and championship game will be played in conjunction with the men’s NIT final on April 2-4 in Indianapolis.

And the WNIT continues to exist as a 48-team tournament that could be an option for Pac-12 teams.

Pac-12 seeking return to Final Four

While an advantage unique to women’s basketball, hosting NCAA games is no guarantee of making the Sweet 16, let alone reaching the Final Four.

For an example, look no further back than last season, when No. 1 seed Stanford lost in the second round at home to Mississippi.

“The most important thing is not seeding at all,” Tara VanDerveer said last week after Stanford lost in the Pac-12 Tournament final to USC.

“The most important thing is our team being healthy and people really wanting to play with each other. I think we’re going to be in really good shape, whatever seed we are. And we know that we want to do better than we did last year.”

That became even more of a priority Tuesday when Cardinal star Cameron Brink, the Pac-12 Player of the Year, declared for the WNBA draft, eliminating the option of playing a fifth season at Stanford.

Many project the 6-foot-4 Brink to be the No. 2 selection in the WNBA draft (to Los Angeles) behind Iowa star Caitlin Clark, who is expected to end up with Indiana.

“Basketball is a game of wins and losses,” Brink said after the loss to USC. “You’re not going to win every single game. I sat down with the girls and said we tried our best. Shots didn’t fall for us.”

At least one Pac-12 team has reached the Final Four in 12 of the last 15 NCAA tournaments, including the 2021 event when Stanford beat Arizona in the final. But Colorado, Utah and UCLA lost in the Sweet 16 last year, so the Pac-12 ultimately underachieved in the postseason.

Five teams made the Sweet 16 (or beyond) in both 2017 and 2019, creating a standard for this month — especially if five teams are hosting.

USC is 12-1 since Feb. 2 and celebrating not only its first Pac-12 tournament title since 2014 but also JuJu Watkins being honored as ESPN’s National Freshman of the Year on Wednesday. She also was named ESPN’s National Player of the Year runner-up behind Clark.

Brink and Watkins were on the network’s All-America team while Oregon State’s Scott Rueck was the Coach of the Year runner-up behind South Carolina’s Dawn Staley.

Selection committee numbers

Some important records and metrics going into selection Sunday:

— NET rankings (through Wednesday): No. 4 Stanford, No. 6 UCLA, No. 10 USC, No. 11 Utah, No. 16 Colorado, No. 17 Oregon State, No. 29 Washington State, No. 35 Arizona, No. 42 Washington and No. 59 Cal.

— Quadrant 1 records: Stanford 10-4, USC 10-4, UCLA 12-5, Oregon State 8-6, Colorado 6-8, Utah 6-9, Arizona 3-13, Washington State 5-11, Cal 2-11 and Washington 4-9.

— Strength of schedule: No. 1 UCLA, No. 2 Arizona, No. 4 Utah, No. 5 USC, No. 6 Colorado, No. 9 Oregon State, No. 10 Cal, No. 13 Washington State, No. 15 Stanford and No. 18.

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