Metcalfe – Pac-12 NCAA WBB Tournament preview and picks as seven teams make the field

Column by Jeff Metcalfe 

The Pac-12 didn’t get everything it wanted from the NCAA selection committee but received enough to be positioned for success in what should be the most-viewed women’s tournament ever.

For the first time in its 12-school era, the conference claimed three No. 1 or 2 seeds, even though Stanford, the regular season champion, dropped to the No. 2 line behind Big 12 tournament champion Texas, which was assigned the fourth No. 1 seed.

USC, the Pac-12 champion, earned a No. 1 seed for the first time since 1986. Stanford and UCLA are No. 2 seeds and will host the opening weekend.

The Los Angeles schools are hosting sub-regionals in the same season for the first time since 1992.

With USC and Stanford assigned to the two Portland regions and UCLA to the Albany 2 region, Oregon State, a No. 3 seed, was placed in the Albany 1 region. The top four teams in a conference must be in different regions.

Ramifications were felt on the No. 3 seed line as defending NCAA champion LSU was placed in the Albany 2 region along with No. 1 Iowa.

Also, Connecticut and North Carolina State were shipped across the country as No. 3 seeds to the Portland regions.

The Pac-12 missed out on a fifth sub-regional host when Colorado dropped to a No. 5 seed, primarily due to a 2-6 record in the closing stretch. The Buffaloes will travel to Manhattan, Kan., and No. 5 seed Utah will head to Spokane, Wash., for first- and potentially second-round games.

Of the unranked Pac-12 teams, Arizona reached the NCAA field as a No. 11 seed and will play in a First Four game in Storrs, Conn. Three others (Washington State, Washington and California) were selected for the new 32-team WBIT, meaning 10 of the conference’s 12 teams will compete in the postseason.

Only Arizona State and Oregon were left out.

Since the 2015-16 season, the Pac-12 has the highest NCAA Tournament winning percentage (.667) in the country and the most Sweet 16 appearances (25), and it’s tied for the most Elite Eight (13) and Final Four (seven) qualifiers.

Here are Hotline predictions for the NCAA First Four/first round.

Thursday (First Four)

No. 11 Arizona (17-15) vs. No. 11 Auburn (20-11) 

Comment: Auburn went 1-1 against Pac-12 teams in non-conference play, beating Washington State after earlier losing to Cal. Arizona made the NCAAs over both of those opponents after closing strong (5-3 since Feb. 16), with two narrow losses to USC. Auburn won four straight before losing to LSU in the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats are making do with seven scholarship players and a defense that can win provided they avoid foul trouble.
Pick: Arizona.

Friday (first round)

No. 5 Colorado (22-9) vs. No. 12 Drake (29-5)

Comment: The Buffaloes would relish a Sweet 16 rematch against Iowa and Caitlin Clark, but getting there requires winning on the road. (At one point, they seemed like a lock to play at home.) Drake has won 14 consecutive games, a winning streak that began on Jan. 27. That said, Missouri Valley competition is much different than what Colorado faced in the Pac-12. CU’s veteran team should advance, likely to meet No. 4 seed/host Kansas State.
Pick: Colorado

No. 3 Oregon State (24-7) vs. No. 14 Eastern Washington (29-5)

Comment: Eastern Washington won the Big Sky regular season and tournament titles and is on a 13-game winning streak. But again, the competition disparity will show when the Eagles try to slow Raegan Beers and Co. at rowdy Gill Coliseum. Eastern Washington lost to Cal in December and to Gonzaga by only two points in November, its only Quadrant 1 games.
Pick: Oregon State

No. 2 Stanford (28-5) vs. No. 15 Norfolk State (27-5)

Comment: Stanford fell short of adding the Pac-12 tournament title to its regular season crown, losing 74-61 to USC in the championship game. Guards Talana Lepolo and Hannah Jump had a combined six points in that game, and the Cardinal needs more from its backcourt to avoid a second straight letdown in the opening weekend of NCAA play. Starting strong against MEAC champion Norfolk State will help going into the second round against No. 7 Iowa State or No. 10 Maryland.
Pick: Stanford

Saturday (first round)

No. 1 USC (26-5) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-8)

Comment: In its first NCAA Tournament appearance, Texas A&M-CC draws the hottest team in the Pac-12 and national Freshman of the Year candidate JuJu Watkins. The Trojans are 12-1 since Feb. 2 with wins over Stanford (twice), UCLA, Oregon State and Colorado. The Islanders won the Southland Conference tournament for an NCAA automatic bid. No. 8 Kansas and No. 9 Michigan will duel to face USC, barring a major upset, in the second round.
Pick: USC

No. 2 UCLA (25-6) vs. No. 15 Cal Baptist (28-3)

Comment: In just its second year of NCAA postseason eligibility, Cal Baptist gunned its way to the WAC regular season and tournament titles, making 307 shots from 3-point range. Cori Close has guards in Charisma Osborne and Kiki Rice who can defend at the 3-point line and a post player in 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts who will be a matchup problem for the Lancers. The second round in Westwood will include the winner between No. 7 Creighton and No. 10 UNLV.
Pick: UCLA

No. 5 Utah (20-10) vs. No. 12 South Dakota State (25-5)

Comment: South Dakota State, making its 12th NCAA appearance out of the Summit League, is arguably the toughest first-round opponent for any of the Pac-12’s ranked teams. The Utes are at their best in a score-more game with precision 3-point shooting, but that hasn’t always been the case since losing Gianna Kneepkens to an injury. A matchup against No. 4 (and site host) Gonzaga in the second round would pair two of the nation’s top 20 scoring teams.
Pick: Utah

No. 11 Arizona (18-15) vs. No. 6 Syracuse (23-7)

Comment: Arizona won a game in the Pac-12 Tournament before losing the next day to USC, 65-62. In the NCAAs, the Wildcats will have a day off after facing Auburn and before dealing with Syracuse, which dropped three of its last four games. Arizona is young, with three freshmen starting, and has little depth — winning a second NCAA game, while possible, feels like a stretch. The winner will take on UConn.
Pick: Syracuse

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow Metcalfe on Twitter/X: @jeffmetcalfe

*** Follow Jon Wilner on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.