Mailbag: Stanford and Cal caught in ACC breakup(?), Big Ten revenue shares, the Pac-2 lawsuit, media decisions and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes each Friday. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline.

Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

With news of schools in the ACC possibly leaving soon, is there a chance the conference will be no more? Or will enough schools stick around? Also would Stanford and Cal look to work back to the Pac-12? — @ag10899

So much to unpack with this topic, but let’s start with the core issue: The use of the word “news.”

The Hotline is aware of the noise on social media. But we have yet to read or hear anything that resembles hard news about the imminent breakup of the ACC.

It will happen, eventually. But the timeframe is more likely years than months or weeks.

Next, we need to define what constitutes a breakup: Is that two or three schools leaving, or the majority? And where would they land?

That was Florida State’s central problem during its summertime saber-rattling: The Seminoles had nowhere to go.

In realignment, it doesn’t take two to tango; it takes three:

— The school seeking a home.

— A conference willing to expand, as determined by the university presidents.

— A media partner willing to fund the expansion (i.e., Fox or ESPN).

Unless there is full alignment of all three entities, realignment is impossible.

Lastly, there is the momentous issue of the ACC’s grant-of-rights (GOR). Perhaps attorneys representing Clemson and FSU have found a way out. We heard rumors months ago that a group of ACC schools were attempting to break the GOR. It never happened. Has something changed? We’ll believe it when we see it.

That said, there are cracks in the ACC’s foundation that will be difficult to repair. And those same cracks are inevitable in the Big Ten and SEC, although they might take longer to appear.

Eventually, the top football brands in the heavyweight conferences will revolt against equal revenue distributions.

Ohio State and Michigan aren’t going to accept the same payments as Rutgers and Purdue forever.

Alabama and Georgia aren’t going to share equally with South Carolina and Mississippi State for time immemorial.

And with economic forces pressuring athletic department budgets — the tipping point will be a court-ordered revenue-sharing agreement with the athletes — the move to unequal shares is fast approaching.

At that point, the conference structure will liquefy.

“This is a bigger-picture issue, and the ACC is going through it earlier than everyone else,” an industry source told the Hotline.

We cannot offer a prediction for Stanford and Cal specifically, for their fate would hinge on the amount of ACC wreckage.

If FSU and Clemson buy their way out of the GOR, the conference potentially could remain intact. If a larger group of schools move to dissolve the league, the Bay Area duo would have to find a new home.

That could be a reconfigured Pac-12 … or perhaps the Big Ten.

With USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington in the Big Ten, a six-school western arm makes loads of sense.

It’s one of the few things about realignment that would make sense.

Any chance that Washington and Oregon are getting half shares from the Big Ten so the conference has the cash to assist a couple ACC schools in getting out of the grant-of-rights deal? — @brycetacoma

The Huskies and Ducks are getting half shares for one reason and one reason only: Because that’s all the Big Ten’s media overlord, Fox, was willing to pay.

Do we believe Fox would like a presence in the football-crazed, heavily populated southeast quadrant of the country? Absolutely. And we offered that theory a year ago while sketching out the future of college football.

Remember, Fox only has deals with the Big Ten and Big 12. The major college football brands and markets in the Southeast belong to ESPN via its contracts with the SEC and ACC.

If the ACC shattered, Fox would be delighted to gain access into North Carolina, Florida and Georgia — moves only accomplished if certain schools joined the Big Ten.

At that point, Fox would muster the cash necessary to pay the newcomers without decreasing the payments to the continuing Big Ten members.

But the push to break the ACC’s grant-of-rights, led by Florida State and Clemson, is distinct from the calculation Fox made in allocating $65 million annually (roughly) for Washington and Oregon over the next six years.

What’s your gut feeling on how this lawsuit will turn out for Washington State and Oregon State? —@WHS1969

We always lean toward disputes of this sort ending in settlements. Neither side wants to deal with the repercussions of an expedited discovery process during which the dirtiest of laundry could become public.

That said, the stakes are high enough that the Cougars and Beavers might risk discovery. If the 10 outgoing schools decide they have nothing to lose, then maybe the process will extend to the preliminary injunction hearing, which has been scheduled for 2 p.m. on Nov. 14.

The conference office established clear precedent when it excluded outgoing schools (USC, UCLA and Colorado) from serving on the board of directors. We could see the court siding with WSU and OSU and declaring them the only remaining board members.

Some decisions pertain strictly to the 2023-24 competition season. But any financial issues could be considered long-haul matters, thus falling under the purview of WSU and OSU.

Every dollar spent now impacts the cash available for the Cougars and Beavers.

I find it disrespectful that commissioner George Kliavkoff was not at the ‘Pac-2’ championship game. This was a game he should have attended. — @cubsfan7331

That’s a natural sentiment, but I would pose this question in response: Was he invited?

My guess is that WSU and OSU want nothing to do with Kliavkoff, who presided over the collapse that left the two schools in this brutal position.

They blame him for the mess as much, if not more, than they blame Oregon and Washington.

If the Pac-12 was still intact and had its TV contract expiring in 2025, instead of 2024, would it be more attractive to the networks given the on-field improvement and the Deion Sanders effect? — @bbison724

Had this uptick in on-field success and Sanders’ arrival all unfolded a year ago, the conference might have secured a lucrative deal.

The same would have been true if the presidents had bet on themselves and waited for the 2023 season to play out before negotiating a media deal.

Or if COVID had happened one year earlier. After all, it engulfed the Pac-12 for two seasons, with one (2020) directly affected by the pandemic and the other (2021) impacted by the lingering toll.

In addition to all the self-inflicted wounds over the years, the Pac-12 is also the victim of terrible timing.

Was there ever an agreement in the Pac-12 to pay the $50 million to Comcast out of the emergency funds? Would Comcast have even agreed? — @ChrisFaithful49

There is a fair amount of confusion on this topic, so let’s attempt to clarify.

First, the Pac-12 isn’t reimbursing Comcast for the $50 million in overpayments. Instead, Comcast has reduced its monthly payments to the Pac-12 until the total amount withheld reaches the correct amount.

As a result, the conference has an internal issue to settle: How to offset the reduced revenue within the year-end distributions made by the conference to the campuses?

Our understanding is that the emergency funds are one piece of the compensation process.

Your thoughts on the latest theory that ESPN owes the ‘Pac-2’ the full share of College Football Playoff money — $320 million — regardless of membership? WSU president Kirk Schulz is on CFP’s board of managers, so they can’t change the rules. (The vote must be unanimous.) — @Smittytheclownn

The CFP distributes a base share of $80 million to each Power Five conference. Additional revenue is hooked to participation, but the total is nowhere near $320 million per conference.

Could the Cougars and Beavers make a claim on a full share, then each pocket $40 million?

They could try. Any changes to the CFP’s revenue sharing model for the 2024 and 2025 seasons require unanimous approval of the board, and Schulz is a member.

But in the real world, that ploy probably won’t work.

Remember, the Power Five conferences receive the bulk of the CFP revenue, and the CFP determines which conferences receive Power Five designation.

If the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 vote as a bloc, the ‘Pac-2’ schools would lose the coveted status.

We expect the CFP to delay any decision on revenue changes until the Pac-2 situation is resolved, then negotiate a change.

Let’s just say Oregon State and Washington State go forward as the ‘Pac-2’ for one or two years. Which media companies would be interested in a partnership? Are we talking about the CW and Lifetime? Or is there really room on ESPN? — @BakerMeow

Well, if WSU and OSU have access to enough Pac-12 assets, they wouldn’t necessarily need a media deal during the bridge seasons (2024-25).

Also, I’m skeptical that any national media company would pay to broadcast games against the greatly diminished schedules the Cougars and Beavers would be forced to create. Instead, the schools could sign Tier 3 (local) media deals, so their games are available in-state.

However, when they join with Mountain West schools — and regardless of the name of the league — there assuredly will be interested media buyers.

ESPN always has room for content, thanks to ESPN+.

Fox and CBS, which own the Mountain West rights through the 2025 football season, might renew that deal with WSU and OSU included.

And perhaps Apple would agree to dip its toe into college football, knowing bigger deals are looming with the power conference media contracts expiring early in the 2030s.

None of the deals will come close to matching what WSU and OSU have received in the Pac-12. But there should be something available when the new league rises.

Husky fan here planning to attend my first game at the Coliseum in November. Any advice for the trip? — @LocustAutoX

The Coliseum atmosphere is fantastic when the venerable stadium is full, and it should be jammed for that game.

Our advice: Fly into Burbank, not LAX, grab dinner at Versailles (on Venice Boulevard), enjoy the weekend … and consider betting the Over, whatever it is.

The defenses stand no chance.

I may have missed this but what happens to the former Pac-12 “minor” sports that compete in other conferences? Are all sports going to the new conferences? — @TrojanSuzanneR

All of the realignment moves thus far have included most of the Olympic sports at the schools switching leagues.

Why not all of them? Because many Olympic sports compete in regional leagues already.

The Mountain Pacific Sports Federation is a prime example. It houses water polo, gymnastics, men’s volleyball and other sports sponsored by numerous Pac-12 schools.

Only the teams competing in sports that are supported by the new conference are changing affiliation.

What is your coverage plan once the Pac-12 schools go their separate ways? — @tubingtyler1

The Hotline will continue covering the schools and the issues that matter to them, on the field and off, regardless of the banner under which they compete.

Starting next summer — before next summer, actually — we’ll plunge into comprehensive coverage of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-2/Mountain West.

There will be plenty of topics to address, on the field and off, and loads of new markets for our product.

College sports are evolving rapidly, with the breakup of the Pac-12 serving as fuel for the Darwinian changes on the horizon.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.