Mailbag: Schools for the super league, the Big Ten’s future, options for Cal and Stanford, the Pac-12 and UConn, the Sorsby stakes and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include “mailbag” in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline. Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

And if you missed it, last week’s mailbag examined how a super league might form (hint: not in the manner many expect).

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Somewhere around 2032, the Big Ten and SEC decide to form a college football subdivision. Pick a number: 32 teams, 48 teams, NFL-style? Do they bring along anyone from the ACC or Big 12? What’s your list? — P Brown

The concept of a college football super league has existed for several years and is usually pegged for the early 2030s, when a series of media rights contracts expire and the sport’s blue bloods are freed up to create something new.

But like objects in the side mirror, the Super League might be closer than it seems.

The Protect College Sports Act (PCSA) was introduced late last month and co-sponsored by Senators Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington). It features a slew of sweeping provisions but was designed, at least in part, to keep the Big Ten and SEC in check — to balance the competitive and financial landscape. One provision, for example, prevents them (and only them) from expanding.

Naturally, the behemoths view the PCSA as an attempt to punish them for success, which raises an interesting possibility if the bill fails: The biggest brands in both conferences could be exponentially more determined to leave the other 100-something major college football schools behind.

Put another way, the likelihood of a super league forming before the end of the decade suddenly feels quite real.

The process would be immensely complex, of course. But we have a blueprint, courtesy of Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who addressed the issue of media revenue Wednesday during his testimony before Cruz, Cantwell and the Senate Commerce Committee.

Bevacqua has a unique perspective as the former chair of NBC Sports — nobody in college athletics possesses a deeper understanding of the media ecosystem from the perspective of the networks themselves.

“If you wanted to maximize media value around college football,” he said, “I think you would take 24-to-30 teams, create unbelievably competitive scheduling where a team like Notre Dame would play Alabama, Georgia, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and start to get a number that more closely resembles an NFL number.”

To be clear, Bevacqua said he opposes a super league. But his insight contradicts the popular narrative of the Big Ten and SEC joining forces to form the entity.

As the Hotline has explained previously, that structure would be inefficient. Plenty of teams in the two conferences have below-average media value and are essentially subsidized by the biggest brands.

Why would the TV networks (and streamers) pay top dollar for inventory packages that include Mississippi State vs. Illinois and South Carolina vs. Maryland?

Instead, the purest version of a super league would feature the top brands in the sport breaking away from their current conferences and creating something new — something that “closely resembles” the NFL.

Would it feature 24, 32 or even 36 teams? Those details are anyone’s guess. Our goal: list the schools that would be considered.

The primary driver in the Super League selection process would be media value, loosely derived from sustained competitive success, nationwide brand awareness, and multi-year TV viewership.

In our view, 18 schools qualify as locks for the Super League even if the entity is limited to 24 teams.

ACC: Clemson, Florida State, and Miami

Big Ten: Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and USC

Independents: Notre Dame

SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas

Four more would probably make the cut: Iowa, Mississippi, Texas A&M and Washington.

The following 13 schools would be considered for the 24-team model and well-positioned for the 32-team version: Arizona State, Brigham Young, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, UCLA, Utah, Virginia Tech and Wisconsin.

The next group includes, but isn’t limited to, Boise State, Pittsburgh and SMU and would root for the super league to feature at least 36 teams.

Granted, our list will undoubtedly receive pushback from fans of schools that have been excluded or not placed on the desired tier. And that’s fine. It’s an educated guess based on conversations with media industry sources over the years.

But the math is clear on two fronts:

— The Big Ten and SEC account for the vast majority of schools that are locks or approaching lock status, which is the reason those conferences have the largest TV contracts and are targeted in the Protect College Sports Act.

— The remaining 100 or so FBS schools not listed above would be on the outside looking in, especially if using the Bevacqua model of 24-to-30 teams.

Their fans should be increasingly concerned that a rupture will happen more rapidly than many believe and feature a tighter circle of members than expected.

Protect college sports?

Don’t be surprised if the legislation ultimately devastates college sports, a landscape long ruled by unintended consequences.

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If college football goes to a super league and if Stanford and/or Cal don’t make the cut, would they go Ivy League or drop football? Would other programs fall by the wayside? — Jon T

In our vision for the Super League, the 90 or 100 teams that don’t make the initial cut would have the option to play a competitive brand comparable to what we have currently with the Group of Six: football that is watchable and features future NFL Draft picks.

Also, four to six spots in the Super League would be available each year to the top finishers from the second tier via a promotion/relegation format.

That said, we suspect the formation of a super league would prompt 10 or 20 schools (maybe more) to drop into the FCS, where expenses are more manageable.

Cal and Stanford would be hard-pressed to make the cut for a super league smaller than 42 or 48 teams. They simply don’t have the media value or competitive clout (largely due to poor leadership within the athletic department and the university during the 2018-2023 window).

They need the current conference structure to hold, albeit with the Big Ten expanding one more time and grabbing the Bay Area teams to form a western division.

Another option, if the Super League rises: Create an Ivy League on steroids.

Cal and Stanford could combine with Vanderbilt and Northwestern and a few others, perhaps including the service academies, to form a 10-to-12-team conference for elite academic schools that also play major college football. (We could see UCLA being involved, too.)

The future is fragile for both the Bears and Cardinal, which is exactly why they are attempting to muster the resources to win now.

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Is the Big Ten in danger of dissolving by 2030 due to failed media rights negotiations? Keep in mind the collapsed cable bundle, Fox straining to keep NFL and MLB media rights and Big Ten blue bloods demanding unequal revenue sharing. — @TerryTerry79

There’s a non-zero chance the Big Ten does not exist in the early 2030s, but the cause wouldn’t be failed media rights negotiations. It would be no media rights negotiations — the conference would implode before it stepped to the table.

That scenario unfolds only if Ohio State and Michigan decide a super league is the best path forward and work with the top teams in the SEC to create a new structure.

Otherwise, the Big Ten will exist in some form.

Perhaps the current version plows into the 2030s unchanged. Or maybe the conference expands again, either to the southeast or back to the West Coast.

Or it could break away from the NCAA structure, at least for football, but that’s a fraught path on two fronts: 1) Any partnership with the SEC would be vulnerable to antitrust litigation; and 2) a self-contained entity, in which Big Ten schools compete only against themselves, doesn’t work on several levels.

Rinse, repeat: If a super league forms, it likely would be an entirely new entity, not a combination of the 34 schools in the Big Ten and SEC.

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The Mountain West withheld its distributions to the exiting members. Will those funds be applied as an offset to the so-called global settlement agreement? For example, if the settlement is $75 million and if $25 million has been withheld, the amount owed to the Mountain West is $50 million. — @Seattleite206

The long-form contract that covers both the poaching penalty lawsuit and the exit fee lawsuit has not been finalized, to the best of our knowledge. Only a term sheet exists.

But the scenario laid out in the question seems correct. The schools in the new Pac-12, likely excluding Gonzaga and Texas State, would owe the Mountain West the difference between the settlement amount and what has been previously withheld.

The exact figure has not been disclosed, although our hunch is something below $70 million. (Whether the wallop will be enough to dislodge UNLV and Air Force from their commitments to the Mountain West is another question entirely.)

A discovery hearing for June 9 has been vacated. The next notable date is Aug. 31, when the Pac-12 and Mountain West hope to have all necessary documents ready for dismissal.

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Can the sportswriters and coaches who vote in polls see that Notre Dame is not ranked high enough to be in the playoffs if it has a cupcake football schedule? — Steve

The AP (media) and USA Today (coaches) polls don’t have a direct role in the playoff selection process, although the Hotline is fully convinced the AP poll released just prior to the initial CFP rankings influences the committee.

And clearly, the committee didn’t look kindly on Notre Dame’s schedule last season. The Irish didn’t have enough quality wins to justify a position ahead of Miami, which beat Notre Dame head-to-head.

The schedule will be an issue in the future, as well. Notre Dame’s partnership with the ACC simply doesn’t provide enough high-level games, especially when combined with the paused USC series.

However, the selection process changes next season. If Notre Dame is ranked in the top 12, it’s guaranteed a berth and cannot be leapfrogged by a lower-ranked conference champion.

That’s just one example of the Irish sitting pretty in the current structure. There are others. Many others.

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Why does the national media have an irrational hatred for LSU basketball coach Will Wade? — @ArtC_Jaramillo

Wade has been criticized by a few media members for leaving NC State after one year and for recruiting overseas professionals to LSU. But we don’t sense the animosity is comprehensive in any form or fashion.

What we see, however, is immense hypocrisy.

LSU claims to want oversight. Heck, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry wrote on the social media platform X that, “There is no denying that college sports have turned into a mess. Congress must pass legislation to fix this broken system before it’s too late.”

And yet, no school has done more to make a mockery of the “system” than the Tigers.

Baton Rouge is effectively ground zero for anarchy with Wade and Lane Kiffin and the exorbitant NIL spending and the (suspected) tampering and everything else.

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Your article on Pac-12 expansion mentioned not adding teams unless they bring value. What is the downside of adding UConn for football only? Seems like it would be beneficial to both parties. — @brycetacoma

In our opinion, Connecticut should be atop the Pac-12’s wish list as a football-only addition, with one caveat:

The move only works if the Huskies agree to a basketball scheduling partnership in which they play three games per year, for example, against Pac-12 men’s and women’s teams (six games total).

That would bring significant value for the Pac-12 schools with their metrics (NET rankings), budgets (ticket sales) and brands (TV eyeballs).

Without the basketball component, the benefits are minimal for the Pac-12.

But the arrangement might not work for the Huskies.

It’s entirely possible UConn executives are wary of any conference affiliation in football unless it comes with Power Four membership — the Big 12 or ACC, in other words.

The Pac-12 definitely discussed membership options with UConn in 2024-25, but the process stalled.

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Is it too late to get Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby added to the cover of EA Sports College Football 27? — @J_Bag24

Sorsby was declared permanently ineligible by the NCAA for making thousands of bets that, crucially, included wagers on his own team during his redshirt season at Indiana.

During a hearing earlier this week in Lubbock, his attorneys sought a temporary injunction that would allow Sorsby to play in 2026 while his case against the NCAA’s ban proceeds.

They want a ruling from the district court judge by June 15, one week before the deadline to declare for the NFL’s supplemental draft, and there’s plenty at stake beyond his status and the Red Raiders’ fate in the Big 12.

Sorsby’s case against the NCAA’s permanent ban is based on his gambling addiction being identified as a mental illness for which he sought and received treatment.

We fully concur on the mental illness aspect but vehemently dispute the notion that Sorsby should be allowed to play. Within the lawless landscape of college sports, there is one unbreakable rule: Athletes cannot gamble on their own teams because it draws the integrity of the competition into question.

If fans don’t believe what they are watching is real — if they suspect athletes could be throwing games — then there’s nothing left. Fold up the tent and head home.

Yes, the ruling would come from a district court and could be appealed by the NCAA. But if Sorsby takes the field this season, he would have created a legal precedent for athletes breaking the one rule that cannot be broken.

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