Mailbag: Oregon’s defense vs. Washington’s offense (which is worse?), the new Nielsen system, UCLA’s upturn, empty seats and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Please send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include “mailbag” in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline. Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

In case you missed it, last week’s mailbag examined Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s performance compared to how an average coach would fare if given the same resources: Coaches Above Replacement. (We looked at Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham, too.)

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What’s worse: Washington’s offense or Oregon’s defense? The Huskies have extreme youth as their excuse. What possible excuse is there for the Ducks and all of their experience and five-star players? — Darryl O

Fans of both teams are united in their sense of panic. One of the few positive developments in Eugene and Seattle is the knowledge that their counterparts are melting down, as well.

It’s a version of schadenfreude that we did not expect to surface given the expectations and talent level on both campuses.

Before we answer, an important caveat: This is not a fixed existence for either team.

One or both could improve substantially over the next two months and end up with the type of season so many expected.

That said, the answer is easy: Oregon’s defense is worse.

It’s not worse in terms of production; Washington’s offense has been equally inept. But it’s worse when performance is compared to potential.

Far worse.

Immeasurably worse.

Let’s begin our breakdown with the data:

— The Huskies scored 24 points against a Washington State defense that gave up 34 points to Kansas State, and they scored 16 against a Utah State defense that yielded 29 to Idaho State.

— What’s more, the Huskies rank in the 100s nationally in points per game (20), yards-per-play (5.5) and third-down conversion percentage (34.5).

— Oregon ranks in the 90s or 100s nationally in points allowed (33 per game), rushing yards allowed (165 per game) and yards-per-play allowed (5.6).

— Yes, the Ducks have played more rigorous opponents. But Oklahoma State gained 368 yards and scored 10 points against Tulsa, then totaled 554 and 39 in toppling Oregon.

Given the competition, we’d argue that Washington’s production on offense has been slightly worse than Oregon’s production on defense. Clearly, coaching is an issue for both.

However, Washington’s offense isn’t nearly as talented as Oregon’s defense.

The Huskies have retooled their offense line, their top tailbacks are injured and they lack an elite, game-changing receiver.

Meanwhile, the Ducks’ defense is loaded with high-round NFL draft picks but has performed like it’s stocked with undrafted free agents.

Fans and media have been focused on quarterback Dante Moore and the offensive line, but we knew the retooled front could struggle early in the season, impacting Moore’s efficiency.

The truly perplexing issue in Eugene is the defense, which has five players — five! — ranked among the top-100 NFL draft prospects: Safety Koi Perich, edge rushers Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti and linemen Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington.

And yet the Ducks have just three sacks and six tackles-for-loss through two games.

As soon as the Oklahoma State faceplant unfolded, it became fashionable to wonder if the Ducks are morphing into the 2026 version of Penn State.

If you’ll recall, the Nittany Lions were No. 2 in the AP preseason poll a year ago but grossly underperformed. They fired James Franklin in October and finished the regular season with six wins.

We don’t see it that way.

For one thing, Dan Lanning isn’t getting fired even if the Ducks finish 6-6, although that would certainly change his status as Oregon’s forever coach.

The Hotline views Clemson, which was No. 4 to start last season but finished 7-5 despite having nine players drafted, as the more accurate comparison at this point.

Oregon possesses at least that many draft picks when you account for players on offense. And much like Clemson at the start of last season, the Ducks seemingly possess one of the most talented defensive lines in the country.

Bottom line: Yes, Washington’s offense and Oregon’s defense have played poorly thus far. (We won’t get an accurate read on either this weekend given their FCS opponents.)

But when it comes to which unit is performing worse relative to its talent, well, the Ducks win that competition in a blowout.

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From where you sit, is the interest from fans at large going up or down in this new era of college football? — @Cargoman0363

Fans are constantly grumbling (understandably) about the transfer portal and the lack of familiarity with players on the team they follow. And ticket prices. And kickoff times. And the never-ending requests for donations.

But we aren’t sure the grumbling equates to a deterioration of interest in the product.

By this winter, clarity should emerge. There will be relevant data based on year-over-year trends in both attendance and audience.

Granted, the TV ratings were up in 2025, and not by a little. Viewership figures smashed records: ESPN reported its most-watched regular season since 2011, with a 14 percent year-over-year increase, while Fox’s premier broadcast, the “Big Noon” game, experienced an 11 percent upturn.

But that could be misleading.

As we explained in detail last winter, Nielsen has changed its system for measuring the so-called Out-of-Home audiences for all sports (e.g., sports bars). In 2025-26, the company began capturing markets that were not previously incorporated.

The unmeasured markets that were added to the tally? College towns.

As a result, the 2025-26 data showed massive year-over-year increases, but that didn’t necessarily reflect new viewers.

Once this season ends, an apple-to-apples comparison will be available under the new Nielsen system.

At that point, we’ll know if the portal and NIL have impacted interest.

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The Pac-12 needs to kick out Utah State. There’s a good chance the Aggies don’t win a game all year, and they kind of snuck in the back door to get into the conference in the first place. Replace them with UNLV and/or Air Force. — @HPup2238072

Yes, Utah State was able to join the rebuilt Pac-12 as the fifth school from the Mountain West after UNLV declined an invitation in the fall of 2024.

And yes, this could be a long season for Bronco Mendenhall and Co. based on the Week 1 loss to Idaho State.

But nobody is getting kicked out. There is no chance of the conference expelling Utah State or anyone else. None, zero, zip.

Over and above the legal and financial obstacles, let’s keep in mind: The Aggies could end up having a respectable season of four or five wins; their men’s basketball program is one of the best in the conference; they are investing in athletics; and they fit institutionally with the rest of the Pac-12 membership.

In our view, the conference must have a campus in Utah given the state’s population, football recruiting pipeline and passion for college sports.

Bottom line: Utah State isn’t going anywhere, even if the season goes all wrong.

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What are your thoughts on UCLA? — @Sv13therealone

The Hotline has two thoughts on UCLA, one from the trees, the other from the forest.

The Bruins are much-improved on the field under first-year coach Bob Chesney and, combined with the favorable conference schedule, should have no trouble winning at least seven games. (They don’t play Indiana or Ohio State.)

Everything about the program smells of competence, which has not been the case for many years.

Then again, seven wins should be the floor for UCLA on an annual basis. Only through poor coaching and indifferent university leadership has the standard been lowered to the point that 7-5 or 8-4 constitutes an upturn.

And that brings us to the forest: Success starts at the very top, with the chancellor. As we noted many times during his long tenure, Gene Block didn’t know if a football was stuffed or inflated. Even worse, he didn’t care.

But Julio Frenk understands that winning benefits all facets of campus and, thus far, he has been willing to commit the energy and resources to make that happen.

As long as the 72-year-old Frenk maintains his commitment, which depends on the length of his tenure, of course, the Bruins should be relevant.

That doesn’t mean competing with Ohio State for the Big Ten title. But it does mean winning no fewer than seven games and as many as nine or 10.

There is no excuse for anything less.

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For more than a century, college football was a true American love. The current leaders have done everything possible to materially change its very identity. Why do the people in charge of the sport actually hate the sport? — @MarkCFried

It increasingly seems that way:

— Fans don’t want the College Football Playoff to double in size, and yet executives are pushing for a 24-team field.

— Fans don’t want Congress micromanaging the sport, yet the executives are begging for federal involvement.

— Fans don’t care that players are compensated by market forces, yet executives want to place caps on athlete compensation.

Here’s our view: The commissioners, university presidents and athletic directors don’t actually hate college football. But they are all driven by self-interest — by what’s best for their school and their conference — and don’t prioritize the overall health of the sport.

That means whatever strategies and policies will 1) ensure their job security, 2) help balance their budgets and 3) keep their donors and trustees happy usually will rule the day.

Expansion of the NCAA Tournament and the CFP are prime examples. There is nothing wrong with the current models for both; nor is there evidence that expansion will benefit the sport.

But more teams (76 in March Madness and 24 in the CFP) mean increased revenue, happier fans, contract extensions and cashed performance bonuses.

Without a centralized governance structure, the system rewards executives for acting in territorial fashion.

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Many schools have multiple rivalry trophies. Washington State has only one. What makes more sense: A trophy game with Oregon State or one with Boise State? Or both? — @cougsguy06

First, let’s hope Washington State and Washington find a way to continue the Apple Cup beyond the end of the contract in 2028.

But if the Cougars had to choose a new opponent to serve as a long-term rival with a trophy presented annually to the winner, they should pick Oregon State.

And the trophy should be in the shape of a lifeboat.

Call it the Survivor Series, because so much of WSU’s new identity is connected to the multi-year process, arm-in-arm with the Beavers, of salvaging the Pac-12.

In fact, the schools could move forward with a trophy right now, even if the Apple Cup and Civil War are continued indefinitely.

The Pac-12’s flex schedule is the only wrench — the Cougars and Beavers could end up playing each other twice in a season, which isn’t ideal for the trophy-awarding aspect.

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What do the Big Ten and ACC and their fans think about seeing empty stadiums at USC and Stanford, which is not an anomaly in many West Coast stadiums? Does it tarnish its brand reputation at all? — @CelestialMosh

USC became a national laughingstock for the ghastly Week 0 crowd for San Jose State, and Stanford’s half-full stadium has been mocked for years, both by the public and inside college sports.

It’s one of the reasons, interconnected with TV ratings, that Stanford isn’t in the Big Ten right now. And the same goes for Cal, by the way.

You could include UCLA, as well. The Bruins opened the season on the road, in Berkeley, but had they played a Mountain West opponent on Week 0, you would have seen sections of the Rose Bowl untouched by rear ends.

Only a handful of stadiums in the western third of the country are consistently close to capacity on Saturdays, regardless of opponent or weather — a stark contrast to those in other regions, especially SEC territory.

(If you’re scoring at home, those would be Oregon, Fresno State, Utah, BYU, Boise State and a few others.)

But let’s offer some context: Plenty of eastern-based ACC stadiums are at 50 percent or 66 percent of capacity on a regular basis.

We see rows of empty seats at Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Boston College and Virginia.

The visuals aren’t good at USC and Stanford. But do the empty seats actually undermine the brand power of the conferences? We’re skeptical.

In our view, the USC situation was completely overblown by fans and media. Anyone paying attention over the years would have expected exactly that crowd under the circumstances.

If the Coliseum has rows and rows of empty seats for USC’s biggest games, our opinion might change. But the stadium will be packed for Oregon, Washington and Ohio State.

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What prevents Michigan from doing the right thing and vacating its win against Western Michigan? —  @MrEd315

To be fair to the Wolverines, no team would vacate a victory deemed official by the NCAA, but we understand the sentiment. In fact, I have counted the result as a victory for Western Michigan when crafting my AP Top 25 ballot.

And if you missed the news this week, the NCAA’s Football Oversight Committee ruled that the Big Ten replay officials didn’t follow the proper protocol when adding one second back on the clock. Had they, the game would have ended after the first Hail Mary with Western Michigan winning 12-7.

Essentially, the replay officials used the in-stadium time visible on their feed and not the NBC time shown to the public.

That’s right. Even though the in-stadium time was correct, the replay officials should have used the NBC time, according to the Football Oversight Committee:

“When a replay review requires time to be restored or otherwise adjusted, the replay official’s decision will be based on the embedded game clock contained within the program feed.”

That said, neither the FOC or the NCAA has the mechanism in place to overturn a result after the referee has signaled the end of the game.

And that’s for the better. The can ‘o worms that change would open is too enormous to be imagined.

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