Mailbag: Big Ten travel impact, timeline for the Pac-12, likely CFP outrage, issues for Utah and USC and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline

Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

What is the final verdict on former Pac-12 teams traveling across multiple time zones for away games? — @CelestialMosh

Not surprisingly, the final verdict is muddled.

It’s muddled because of the results and the geography. The travel demands weren’t comparable for each former Pac-12 school.

The Hotline defined taxing travel as competition requiring teams to cross multiple time zones: Essentially, from Pacific to Central or Eastern time and vice versa. While traveling west-to-east is more difficult for body clocks than east-to-west, the latter is challenging, as well.

Add the Friday games and the early kickoffs and there were a slew of complexities.

In Big Ten conference games, teams crossing multiple time zones were 8-18 (or 30.7 percent), which constitutes a slight uptick in winning percentage after what had been a brutal mid-season stretch of results.

But the overall record is a bit misleading because the home team was often favored.

In our view, performance against the point spread offers better context. Over the course of 26 games, the traveling teams should have covered roughly 13 times.

Instead, teams crossing multiple time zones were 8-17-1 against the spread, a success rate of just 32.7 percent — so far below what you would expect that we’re convinced travel played a role in performance.

Which doesn’t mean we necessarily should expect a repeat next season and beyond. In theory, the coaches will learn and adjust both their preparation routine and their travel plans. (The oddsmakers will adjust, as well.)

Everyone knew travel would be difficult, and football likely will be the sport impacted the least because the trips are short in duration.

The Olympic sports, including basketball, could be impacted more heavily. For example, Washington’s men will make four trips across the country in seven weeks in the second half of the season.

Assuming one travel day before the scheduled competition, the Huskies will cross 20 time zones and be on the road 18 of 42 days — and that doesn’t include the taxing travel time home (which we presume will take place immediately after the final game of each trip).

Nor does it account for travel difficulties caused by winter weather.

The Big Ten is the easiest conference by which to assess travel because it has four West Coast schools making long trips, whereas the ACC only has two (Cal and Stanford) and the Big 12 has manageable distances between most campuses. In some cases, travel in the Big 12 is easier for the Four Corners schools than it was in the Pac-12.

Another complication with tracking Big 12 results across time zones: Arizona is on Mountain Standard Time all year, so a two-time zone trip in October becomes a one-time zone trip in November even though there is no change in distance.

For that reason, we didn’t track the impact of Big 12 travel across multiple time zones. The relevance was limited to the few instances in which the Four Corners schools faced opponents from the Eastern Time Zone (UCF, West Virginia and Cincinnati).

In the interest of full transparency on the topic, we should mention that cross-country travel had little impact on results in the ACC when Cal and Stanford were involved.

Quality of play could have been a factor. The Bay Area teams were 3-11 against everyone else in the conference. (They were bad everywhere, in other words.)

But again, the true test of the travel burden will come with basketball season. We plan to track the situation closely.

Which teams are going to be angry after being bypassed as one of the ‘chosen 12’ for the College Football Playoff on Sunday? — @MrEd315

Several are angry now because their fate is apparently sealed, with Miami, Mississippi, South Carolina and Brigham Young atop that list.

Warde Manuel, the selection committee chair, indicated on Tuesday that teams not playing for conference championships this weekend are locked in place.

Alabama is the lowest-ranked team slotted to make the field that isn’t playing for a conference title, which means any team below the Crimson Tide is boxed out.

The ACC is irate about Miami, which dropped six spots after losing to Syracuse and is now behind Alabama despite having a better record. (The Hotline has no problem with the treatment of the Hurricanes: They have zero wins against ranked teams and don’t deserve a playoff berth.)

But the Defcon One situation involves No. 8 SMU and No. 11 Alabama.

If the Mustangs win the ACC, they would receive an automatic berth, leaving the Crimson Tide with the last available at-large spot.

If the Mustangs lose to Clemson, the Tigers would grab the automatic bid. In that situation, the committee would select either SMU or Alabama for the final spot.

The team left out would howl until the end of days.

If that’s SMU, the ACC might spontaneously combust after losing a resume standoff to Alabama for the second consecutive year. (Remember the Florida State controversy?)

Can you envision a Big Ten/SEC “invitational tournament” starting in 2026 that is funded by Fox and ESPN, respectively, in which those conferences set the ground rules for the selection committee, guarantee themselves three or four slots each and leave the “crumbs” to the ACC, Big 12, Notre Dame and the Group of Five? — Jim V

It doesn’t take much imagination. That’s exactly where the expanded playoff is headed.

Remember, the CFP’s current format ends after next season. A new contract cycle begins in the fall of 2026. ESPN will provide the cash, but the format is undetermined.

The SEC and Big Ten, which carry outsized influence, could insist on:

— Increasing the size of the event to either 14 or 16 teams.

— A predetermined number of automatic bids for each conference, with a limited number of at-large spots. (Or zero at-large spots.)

— The elimination of the selection committee, with a computer setting the seeds and field.

When SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said in October, “This just has to go incredibly well,” he wasn’t talking about parking and logo design. He wants the maximum number of bids for his conference. Based on the current landscape, that would be four: Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama.

If it doesn’t go “incredibly well” for the SEC, expect to see radical changes to the format starting in 2026.

Shouldn’t the Pac-12 wait 18 months to add to the conference? — @brycetacoma

The Hotline has been asked this question, in various forms, for months:

Why not wait as long as possible to determine the eighth football-playing member of the rebuilt conference in order to give the competitive landscape the most time to play out?

In a perfect world, the Pac-12 would delay any expansion decision until the end of the 2025 football season to finalize its lineup for July 1, 2026, when the five Mountain West schools (and Gonzaga) are scheduled to join.

The problem is money — specifically, the departure fee any school would owe its former conference. Those typically increase if notification is given within 12 months.

In other words, the price of extrication would be substantially higher if the Pac-12 extends a membership invitation after July 1, 2025, because the new school would turn around and give notice within one year of departure.

As a result, we expect the situation to be resolved this spring in order for the legal matters to be completed — and official notice given — before July 1, 2025.

I heard the Pac-12 has hired a consultant for its media rights negotiations. How important are these consultants? What is their role? Is there anything to be inferred by the particular consultant they hired? — Dan C

Yes, the Pac-12 has retained Octagon to oversee its media rights negotiations. And yes, it’s very important. The firms handle the blood and guts of the negotiations with media companies — every conference uses them.

The Big 12 and Mountain West employ Endeavor, a major media agency with billions in annual revenue.

The Pac-12 used a smaller firm, Sports Media Advisors, for its failed negotiations two years ago — one of many mistakes made by former commissioner George Kliavkoff. (His law school buddy, Doug Perlman, runs SMA.)

Current commissioner Teresa Gould wisely chose Octagon because of its reputation for creative deals.

With what amounts to a blank slate, the Pac-12 can do things differently.

Expect to see a deal that has linear and streaming components and more than one partner. And don’t be surprised if the football schedule features some games on Sunday or the middle of the week.

What’s broken at Utah? — @NSL_Ute

The simple answer: Cam Rising’s body.

The Utes bet their season on Rising’s health and lost badly (for the second year in a row).

The more complicated answer is that coach Kyle Whittingham’s approach to talent acquisition, roster management and playbook creation is broken.

Utah’s success in 2018-19 and 2021-22 was based on identifying high school prospects who fit Whittingham’s style of play, then developing that talent. Yes, transfers were mixed in (Rising, for instance), but the annual churn rate was limited.

The offense under playcaller Andy Ludwig was designed for quarterbacks who had years of experience in the system. But that approach doesn’t work in the transfer portal era, which rewards teams that use plug-and-play offenses.

Utah will change its scheme whether Whittingham returns for 2025 or hands the keys to defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley, the coach-in-waiting.

Whittingham said as much recently with comments about a “heavy shopping season” in the transfer portal and not using an offensive scheme “that’s so complicated … it takes a guy two or three years to learn it.”

Those changes will help, but it remains to be seen if the Utes will recreate the success they experienced over a multi-year stretch.

And it certainly wasn’t lost on the Hotline that the two most disappointing teams in the Big 12 this season, Utah and Oklahoma State, had the longest-tenured coaches, Whittingham and Mike Gundy.

Both established foundations for success in an era of player procurement and development that no longer exists.

How can a school like USC, with such a storied brand, perfect geography and tons of money, be so mediocre at football for so long (and irrelevant at basketball forever). — @news_bling

The basketball irrelevance exists precisely because football has been such a dominant part of USC’s athletic culture for eons. We cannot think of a single football blue blood that has achieved sustained basketball success.

USC’s on-field mediocrity can be traced directly to poor coaching in the post-Pete Carroll era.

Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian were not ready for the job at the time of their appointments, although both have matured into first-rate coaches. Clay Helton was in over his head. And Lincoln Riley, for all his success in Year 1, is struggling to establish an identity.

The move into the Big Ten made his challenge that much more daunting.

Here’s how we see it: The Trojans have the capacity to become a regular occupant of the national stage alongside Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, Michigan and Ohio State, but their margin for error (with regard to the head coach) isn’t nearly as large as it once was.

They need just the right fit to maximize the program’s potential. Riley might not be it.

Now that California is split into two different power conferences, do you think Cal will shine? — @Moneyline_RAY

I’m not sure the path to sustained success is any wider for the Bears in their post-Pac-12 existence than it would have been if the conference had remained intact.

Life in the ACC, for all sports, will be challenging, especially on the financial side.

In the era of NIL, the transfer portal and athlete revenue sharing, schools must be fully committed to winning. That commitment requires resources and funding.

Are the Bears fully committed?

They haven’t been, but that isn’t necessarily a static existence.

The Hotline has been impressed with new chancellor Richard Lyons. During an off-the-record conversation several months ago, Lyons spoke about college sports in the language of an athletic director, not a typical university president who doesn’t know if footballs are inflated or stuffed.

That’s a good sign for the Bears, especially when combined with his obvious passion for sports.

The climb to the top of the ACC will depend on two factors: The school giving coach Justin Wilcox the tools to succeed; and Wilcox making effective use of those tools.

Skepticism on both fronts is warranted.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline