Hotline predictions for 2025: CFP and NCAA Tournament undergo tweaks as realignment marches on

One week removed from the national championship, we have turned an eye to 2025. The following predictions for major developments (on the field and off) are partly intended to make the Hotline look brilliant but mostly designed to prepare fans for what could be a momentous year in college sports.

A year of mass extinction.

In our view, the next 12 months will shatter the last vestiges of NCAA amateurism, sever the connection between the SEC and Big Ten and all other conferences and, quite possibly, spark the beginning of the end of 68-team perfection.

Forgive our pessimism, but the industry cannot help itself, police itself or define itself.

The folks in charge — from conference commissioners, university presidents and athletic directors to district court judges, media executives and antitrust attorneys — invariably want the best for their constituents.

It’s just that those constituents have starkly different needs that are growing more disparate at an accelerating rate.

And on that cheery note, here we go …

1. No realignment occurs at the Power Four level.

This necessary pause comes after ESPN exercises its option (in February) to extend the ACC’s media rights agreement and the rebellious duo, Clemson and Florida State, settle their lawsuits with the conference.

It’s an uneasy peace on the Atlantic Seaboard, however, as schools work behind the scenes to position themselves for the next wave of conference restructuring — a wave we expect to materialize 2028-29.

2. The rebuilt Pac-12 signs a media rights deal with The CW, ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery (Turner Sports) sharing the inventory.

The CW’s package leans heavily into football while WBD and ESPN obtain the rights to both football and basketball.

WBD needs sports content to offset the loss of the NBA and sees synergy between regular-season games and its March Madness broadcasts.

ESPN’s motivation for grabbing a stake? Content to fill the late broadcast windows and to push the ESPN Bet app. (Its long, close relationship with Gonzaga could play a role, as well.)

The total value of the five-year agreement works out to $9 million or $10 million per school per year, which is more than the American Athletic Conference’s agreement with ESPN ($7 million per school) and should not be confused with the Pac-12’s total annual distributions, which include football and basketball postseason revenue.

As for Pac-12 expansion: The process begins, but does not end, with the conference adding Texas State.

3. USC’s season finale, against UCLA on Nov. 29, is the last game of Lincoln Riley’s tenure.

During another mediocre year in which the Trojans fail to seriously challenge for the Big Ten title, it becomes clear to all involved that a separation is the only solution.
Riley’s buyout at the end of the 2024 season exceeded $75 million, and we don’t know the extent of the reduction next winter.

But it doesn’t matter, because Riley sees the writing on the whiteboard and bolts for a fresh start — at Oklahoma State.

Just kidding, mostly.

4. The House v. NCAA lawsuit settlement is approved by Judge Claudia Wilken in April to begin the era of revenue sharing.

For all the consternation caused by House, it’s a winning deal for the schools because it allocates approximately 25 percent of revenues to the athletes.

In the NFL, players get 48.8 percent.

But once approved, House will face immediate legal challenges.

“How can you have a revenue cap and not a floor?” one source noted.

5. The College Football Playoff format remains intact for the 2025 season as the ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five refused to approve changes that might benefit the SEC and Big Ten.

However, the two heavyweights use their leverage to implement major adjustments for the 2026 season:

— The event expands to 14 teams (even though ESPN does not pay a dime for the extra games).

— The seeds are realigned to match the selection committee’s rankings, meaning non-champions can receive opening-round byes.

— The access structure is revamped to give the SEC and Big Ten four automatic bids regardless of how they perform during the season.

The ACC and Big 12 receive two automatic bids each, with one assigned to the Group of Five and one to an at-large team (hello, Notre Dame).

6. Duke wins the NCAA Tournament as Cooper Flagg produces a freshman season for the ages.

The Blue Devils’ run is all the more impressive given the unprecedented number of early-round upsets as Cinderellas remind everyone of their essential place in the tournament’s success and popularity.

Which brings us to …

7. The Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and ACC abandon their threat to take operational control of NCAA Championships, but they do mess with March Madness.

We expect the Power Four to mandate tournament expansion by eight teams, to 76, with the additional slots intended for the 11th- and 12th-place teams in their engorged leagues.

Fortunately, any beyond-brazen efforts to reduce the number of automatic qualifiers from the one-bid conferences — the leagues that produce Loyola, UMBC, St. Peter’s, etc. — will encounter major political problems.

“There are a lot of U.S. Senators from states that don’t have Power Four schools,” a source said.

8. The Pac-12’s lawsuit against the Mountain West over the poaching penalty moves forward after a key March 25 hearing in the Northern District of California.

Eventually, the process concludes with a negotiated settlement — university presidents loathe court trials — that results in a significant reduction from the $55 million owed to the Mountain West under the terms of the scheduling agreement.

The development prompts UNLV and Air Force to reconsider their futures, with the Rebels jumping to the Pac-12 and the Falcons to the American.

9. Football and men’s basketball players are declared employees in one of the ongoing lawsuits, with Johnson v. NCAA as the most likely.

“It’s all about control — how much control does the employer have,” a source said. “The schools are paying the athletes money and signing them to (revenue-sharing) contracts. That sounds like employment to me.”

The move will lead to binding deals that limit transfer opportunities, which naturally leads to the next step: Schools paying buyouts to obtain players.

10. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham announces his retirement after the regular season, handing the keys to coach-in-waiting Morgan Scalley.

Whittingham’s stellar career ends on the high note he desired, as the offseason changes (new offensive coordinator, new quarterback, new system) spark a recovery from the five-win season in 2024.

The Utes contend for the Big 12 title and head to their 17th bowl game in Whittingham’s 21 seasons.

11. In response to sharing revenue, cash-strapped athletic departments trim expenses by tiering their sports programs based on historical success, revenue opportunities and intra-conference preferences.

Football and basketball continue to receive maximum dollars, but from there, hierarchies emerge. Softball and baseball are prioritized in the SEC, for example, while hockey and volleyball take precedence in the Big Ten.

Other programs become glorified club sports.

“They have to be careful to avoid collusion,” a source said, “but the days of departments fully funding 20 or 21 sports — I would be shocked if that continues.”

12. The House settlement results in $15 million allocated to football rosters across the Power Four, but the sport’s real salary cap is closer to $25 million as NIL collectives supplement what the schools spend.

Look for Ohio State, Texas A&M and a few others to hit that figure, with many topping out in the $20 million range.

And in what feels like the safest of all Hotline predictions, the NCAA clearinghouse created to oversee NIL deals will be a fiasco.

13. The super league concepts fail to gain traction in 2025 as schools instead grapple with the revenue sharing era and changes to the CFP.

“Those are probably three to five years away because of (existing) TV contracts,” a source said. (The Big Ten’s media deal, which runs through the spring of 2030, is the first to expire in the current contract cycle.)

However, at least one school will accept private capital.

We aren’t predicting which school but believe it’s more likely at the Group of Five level, where the donor bases are comparably thin, than in one of the power conferences.

14. The SEC’s quarterback play improves in 2025 and so does the overall product, with the conference sending four teams to the CFP (same with the Big Ten).

Florida leads the upturn and is joined by Texas, Georgia and Alabama.

But as the calendar year closes during the quarterfinal round, the team to beat is Penn State.

15. As the most valuable non-power conferences, the Pac-12 and American begin working together in a manner similar to the Big Ten-SEC partnership that developed in 2024.

The immediate goals: To provide a united front on NCAA and CFP issues; and to develop new revenue streams through regular season and postseason scheduling alliances.

But the relationship leads to serious conversations about the most sensible outcome of all: a bicoastal merger of the conferences.

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