Heisman Watch: When Nix and Penix collide Saturday, will the losing QB be eliminated? Not necessarily

Welcome to our weekly look at the Pac-12’s leading Heisman Trophy candidates via an assessment of the top players in the conference. Consider this one Heisman voter’s view of the landscape. The rankings are based on individual performance, value to the team and quality of competition. And yes, we consider defensive players.

Oregon visits Washington on Saturday in the game of the year (thus far) in the Pac-12. For two players, the stakes are personal.

Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is the current frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy at +200 (or 2/1), while Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is the No. 3 betting favorite at +600, according to the latest odds published by BetMGM.

Is the showdown in Seattle a Heisman elimination game for the losing quarterback? Not if history repeats.

One year ago this week, USC quarterback Caleb Williams lost a shootout in Salt Lake City but played well enough (five touchdown passes) to hold his ground in the Heisman race. Two months later, he took home the award.

Penix and Nix are in comparable situations.

One loss isn’t a crippling blow to any Heisman campaign; Williams won the award last year with two defeats on his resume. Both Penix and Nix will have numerous chances down the stretch to impress voters, so long as their teams continue winning at a high level.

In fact, the most important games for Penix and Nix are weeks away, when they go head-to-head against Williams and USC on back-to-back Saturdays in November. (Williams is the No. 2 betting favorite for the Heisman at +225.)

But to make those duels matter, both quarterbacks must play well Saturday.

Our Pac-12 player power rankings …

1. USC QB Caleb Williams
Last week: 2
Key stats: 205.7 passer rating, 10.9 yards per attempt, 22 touchdowns
Comment: Where others saw a substandard first half from Williams in the narrow victory over Arizona, we saw a sensational performance in the second half and overtime — good enough to overcome both the Wildcats and USC’s own inept defense. Williams scored USC’s first touchdown in overtime on an 18-yard scamper, then provided the winning two-point conversion in the third overtime.

2. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Last week: 1
Key stats: 399.8 yards per game, 11.2 yards per attempt, 16 touchdowns
Comment: We’re fascinated by the paradox at play Saturday afternoon. The Huskies’ prospects for victory improve substantially if they run the ball effectively against an Oregon defense designed to contain the downfield passing game. But for Heisman purposes, Penix would be better served leading an aerial assault.

3. Oregon QB Bo Nix
Last week: 3
Key stats: 184.7 passer rating, 80.4 completion percentage, 15 touchdowns
Comment: Nix doesn’t have the gaudy numbers to match Williams or Penix because the Ducks possess a balanced offense: 41 percent of their total yards come on the ground, compared to 22 percent for the Huskies and 32 percent for the Trojans. In the end, that balance could get Oregon into the playoff.

4. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
Last week: 5
Key stats: 72.7 completion percentage, 16 touchdowns, two interceptions
Comment: Whether he’s jabbing his fingers into the eyes of an opponent or taunting ASU’s student section, Sanders’ public persona could use some maturity. (The Heisman race is, to a large extent, a popularity contest.) That said, his play in the fourth quarter of close games against TCU, Colorado State, USC and Arizona State has been absolutely stellar.

5. Washington State QB Cam Ward
Last week: 4
Key stats: 68.9 completion percentage, 14 touchdowns, two interceptions
Comment: Ward was flummoxed by UCLA’s defense tactics (19-of-39 with two interceptions), to the extent that he reverted to the erratic, overmatched 2022 version of himself. One more showing like that would be cause for removal from our Heisman Watch.

6. Washington WR Rome Odunze
Last week: 6
Key stats: 19 yards per catch, four touchdowns, 141.8 all-purpose yards per game
Comment: The Oregon showdown marks a massive opportunity for Odunze, who is currently tied with Missouri’s Luther Burden as the betting favorite (+400) for the Biletnikoff Award, which goes to the nation’s top receiver. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings.)

7. Utah DE Jonah Elliss
Last week: 7
Key stats: 7.5 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss
Comment: No change in our assessment of Elliss: The son of former Utah star Luther Elliss would be our pick for Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year if the season ended today, although UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu is surging.

8. Arizona WR Jacob Cowing
Last week: Not ranked
Key stats: 46 catches, eight touchdowns
Comment: Cowing makes his first appearance of the season on our Heisman Watch after a magnificent performance in the overtime loss at USC. He’s second in the nation in touchdown catches and fifth in receptions. In 18 games with Arizona (since transferring from UTEP), Cowing has 132 catches.

9. UCLA Edge Laiatu Latu
Last week: 9
Key stats: five sacks, 8.5 tackles-for-loss, two fumbles forced
Comment: Latu returns to the Heisman Watch after a multi-week absence and should contend with Elliss, and perhaps a few others, for Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year honors. He also projects as a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

10. Oregon State OL Joshua Gray
Last week: Not ranked
Key stats: Not applicable
Comment: The veteran left tackle anchors one of the best fronts in the conference and has twice been named Pac-12 Offensive Lineman of the Week. He even scored a touchdown on a trick play against San Diego State.

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