Heisman Watch: Penix on top, Ward and Nix rise

Welcome to our weekly look at the Pac-12’s leading Heisman Trophy candidates via an assessment of the top players in the conference. Consider this one Heisman voter’s view of the landscape.

The rankings are based on individual performance, value to the team and quality of competition. And yes, we consider defensive players.

It took four games, but Oregon’s Bo Nix has ascended to the top tier of the Heisman Trophy race, at least according to the folks with money on the line.

Oddsmakers currently have Nix as the No. 4 betting favorite.

FanDuel and PointsBet list the fifth-year quarterback at 10-to-1 to win the award, while BetMGM and Caesars have assigned 12-to-1 odds.

Either way, there are only three players with lower odds: Washington quarterback Michael Penix and USC quarterback Caleb Williams are the co-favorites in the 4-to-1 range, followed by Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers at 6-to-1.

A week ago, Nix was on the third tier of betting favorites at 20-to-1.

His rise follows a stellar performance in the Ducks’ blowout victory over Colorado, in which he completed 28-of-33 passes and accounted for four touchdowns.

Nix was in the lead Heisman pack last season, too, but his ankle injury and Oregon’s late losses to Washington and Oregon State — those developments were, of course, interconnected — derailed the campaign.

If the Ducks hold their ground as Pac-12 title and College Football Playoff contenders, Nix should make the short list of candidates for the Heisman ceremony in New York City.

Now, our Pac-12 player power rankings …

1. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Last week: 1
Key stats: 409 passing yards per game, 16 touchdown passes, 209.6 passer rating
Comment: Another week of superlatives for the rocket-armed lefty. Penix tossed four touchdowns as the Huskies scored 45 points in the first half and walloped Cal 59-32. He’s second in the country in passer rating and is tied for first in yards per attempt (11.9), perhaps the best gauge of a quarterback’s impact. The touchdown total is doubly impressive when you consider the Huskies typically shut down their passing game in the fourth quarter to avoid embarrassing the opposition.

2. Oregon QB Bo Nix
Last week: 4
Key stats: 79.4 completion percentage, 11 touchdown passes, 1 interception
Comment: Nix just went head-to-head with one Heisman competitor (Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders) and will face a second candidate in two weeks when the Ducks visit Washington in the most anticipated game the rival programs have played in eons. A week later, Nix will encounter yet another Heisman hopeful in Washington State’s Cam Ward. And looming in the crucible of November: USC’s Caleb Williams.

3. Washington St. QB Cam Ward
Last week: 5
Key stats: 13 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions, 74.5 completion percentage
Comment: Speaking of Ward, the former transfer from Incarnate Word is more than matching the hype that accompanied his jump from the FCS level in early 2022. Although his national recognition falls short of matching Penix, Nix and Williams, Ward is playing as well as any quarterback in the conference. All he did in the 38-35 win over Oregon State last weekend was complete 28-of-34 passes for 404 yards and four touchdowns.

4. USC QB Caleb Williams
Last week: 3
Key stats: 223.1 passer rating, 11.9 yards per attempt, 15 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions
Comment: Turns out, Williams is mortal. The reigning Heisman winner played arguably his worst game as a Trojan in USC’s wobbly 42-28 victory at Arizona State. Williams tossed three touchdowns and ran for two more but threw 11 incomplete passes — he had 11 in USC’s first three games this season — and he botched a handoff to tailback MarShawn Lloyd. The horror!

5. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
Last week: 2
Key stats: 76.9 completion percentage, 11 touchdown passes, 1 interception
Comment: As goes Colorado, so goes Sanders, and both team and player were overwhelmed in Eugene. Sanders had little time to throw, few open receivers and a paltry 159 yards passing as CU’s offensive line was no match for Oregon’s front. (They can’t all be Colorado State.) That said, Sanders has a chance to restart his Heisman momentum this week against a USC defense that struggled against Arizona State’s third-string quarterback.

6. Washington WR Rome Odunze
Last week: 8
Key stats: 136 receiving yards per game, 161.3 all-purpose yards per game, 6 touchdowns
Comment: Odunze has established himself as the best player in the conference outside the quintet of quarterbacks listed above. In addition to another stellar effort as a pass catcher last week (two touchdown receptions), he helped the Huskies bury Cal with a dazzling 83-yard punt return touchdown early in the first quarter. Odunze is second in the country in receiving yards per game and third in all-purpose yards.

7. Utah DE Jonah Elliss
Last week: Not ranked
Key stats: 19 tackles, 8 tackles-for-loss, 5.5 sacks
Comment: Elliss was sensational against UCLA last week, recording five tackles-for-loss and dominating the fourth quarter with 2.5 sacks to secure the 14-7 victory. He replaces safety Cole Bishop as Utah’s defensive representative on our Heisman Watch — the unit is so good, it demands inclusion — but an equally strong case could be made for Bishop and linebacker Karene Reid.

8. Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter
Last week: 6
Key stats: 16 catches, 13.3 yards per catch, 9 tackles, 1 interception
Comment: Hunter was knocked out of the Colorado State game on a dirty play and is expected to miss several weeks. He has significant ground to make up, but given the spotlight fixed on the Buffaloes and Hunter’s unusual candidacy (as a two-way star), he might have the time, and platform, to recover.

9. Washington State edge Ron Stone Jr.
Last week: 7
Key stats: 20 tackles, 4 tackles-for-loss, 2 fumbles forced
Comment: Stone was credited with four tackles and three quarterback hurries in the victory over Oregon State. His sack and tackles-for-loss totals have flatlined as opponents craft protection schemes to contain Stone, which simply opens rush lanes for his teammates.

10. Oregon State TB Damien Martinez
Last week: Not ranked
Key stats: 108 yards per game, 7.6 yards per carry
Comment: We considered Martinez for previous editions of the Heisman Watch and finally made the move to include the best tailback in the conference. Martinez managed just 81 yards in the loss to WSU, his first game under 100 this season. Nonetheless, he leads the conference in rushing and is on pace for a 1,300-yard season. Not bad for a 3-star recruit who was merely the 48th-ranked tailback in his class, per 247Sports.

(Stats courtesy of SportSource Analytics)

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