Jordan Spurgeon
On Friday, with the D-backs riding a four game winning streak into Cincinnati, it was announced that Corbin Burnes will undergo Tommy John surgery.
He left his last start on June 1 after his elbow felt “dead.” After multiple doctors visits and imaging, Burnes decided that surgery was the best option.
That means he will miss 12-18 months. 2025 is done for him. Most of 2026 is likely a wash too.
But what does that mean for this team the rest of the season?
This team will not be sellers at the deadline, barring a catastrophic June. A rotation of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson should be good enough to hang around. That ties Mike Hazen’s hands a little bit. The offense is too good to let too many losses stack up, and the bullpen can only get better as the season progresses.
Burnes was proving he was the ace of the staff after a few slow starts. But his injury makes room in the rotation for arguably the team’s second best pitcher in Nelson.
Nelson filled in for one start for Burnes earlier in May and two starts for Rodriguez while he was on the 15 day injured list. On June 1 it was announced he was heading back to the pen. Now he’s in the rotation again.
Looking way into the future, Nelson is the favorite to be the opening day starter in 2026. That’s because Gallen and Kelly are on expiring contracts.
Speaking of 2026, Gallen’s struggles this year combined with the Burnes injury, may mean that a one year “prove it” dealt to stay in the valley becomes an option… We’ve all thought it’s a foregone conclusion he leaves, but if he finishes the year as at least a serviceable starter, he may be wise to stay one more year in Arizona if no team offers him a bag. He’s shown flashes of elite stuff this year, but is not showing consistency yet…
Kelly has been phenomenal outside of two rough starts. He may be back on a short term deal too.
Pfaadt has been horrific in his last few starts. He has the second most wins in baseball with seven, but has the highest ERA among qualified starters.
Rodriguez seemed to be okay his first few starts, but struggled heavily before going to the IL. Maybe that fixed something, but his ERA is right around the worst in the league too.
Another guy who may get starts if Pfaadt continues to struggle or another injury happens is Christian Mena. He’s been phenomenal in multiple bullpen appearances for the snakes. He’s proven he belongs in a long relief role, but his future is as a starter.
